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Thread: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

  1. #41
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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    IMO, the parties will reach a framework agreement on March 31 or perhaps a few days later. All the sides have too much vested to allow the process to collapse right now. Therefore, some fundamental differences will be papered over using general and/or flexible language that is open to each side's interpretation.

    As a result, the framework deal will likely be a weak one (and far short of the requirements set forth in UNSC Res. 1696). There will be no commitment that Iran would ship its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia. Iran would also likely be permitted to keep a share of its more modern centrifuges and maintain some of its atomic R&D activities. While general language about verification and inspections--and even stronger rhetoric in the news conference--will be present, concrete details will be lacking. At the same time, there will likely be a commitment to lift most of the international sanctions once Iran reaches a final agreement based on the framework deal in June. To deal with some of the P5+1's views, the lifting of some modest sanctions would likely be tied to Iran's short-term performance and/or a timeframe of a few years. There could be general language that broken Iranian commitments could result in consideration of renewed sanctions, but consideration isn't the same thing as automatic renewal of sanctions.

    Finally, one can't rule out the possibility that some additional sanctions relief could be provided for Iran's reaching a framework agreement.

    Of course, I could be wrong. But that's how I see things right now.

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Yes, thank you

    .... do you ever get tired of proving your oppositions' points for them?
    And... what exactly was your point?

  3. #43
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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    A main sticking point remains sanctions. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on his website on Monday morning: “Sanctions must be lifted in one go, not as a result of future Iranian actions.”

    P5+1 negotiators are balking at this demand because it immediately rewards Iran for ten years of compliance before any compliance whatsoever has been accomplished and verified.

    It is unknown if this is simply a hard-bargaining stance by Iranian negotiators or a solid Khamenei red line.


    Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet. -- Marine Corps General James 'Chaos' Mattis

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    IMO, the parties will reach a framework agreement on March 31 or perhaps a few days later. All the sides have too much vested to allow the process to collapse right now. Therefore, some fundamental differences will be papered over using general and/or flexible language that is open to each side's interpretation.

    As a result, the framework deal will likely be a weak one (and far short of the requirements set forth in UNSC Res. 1696). There will be no commitment that Iran would ship its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia. Iran would also likely be permitted to keep a share of its more modern centrifuges and maintain some of its atomic R&D activities. While general language about verification and inspections--and even stronger rhetoric in the news conference--will be present, concrete details will be lacking. At the same time, there will likely be a commitment to lift most of the international sanctions once Iran reaches a final agreement based on the framework deal in June. To deal with some of the P5+1's views, the lifting of some modest sanctions would likely be tied to Iran's short-term performance and/or a timeframe of a few years. There could be general language that broken Iranian commitments could result in consideration of renewed sanctions, but consideration isn't the same thing as automatic renewal of sanctions.

    Finally, one can't rule out the possibility that some additional sanctions relief could be provided for Iran's reaching a framework agreement.

    Of course, I could be wrong. But that's how I see things right now.


    Mornin DS. Nope its not happening today......they just released they will not be able to reach a framework. The Russian fool Lavrov has shown up calling for an end to all sanctions if a deal is reached.

    All smiles and grins......I would have walked up went to shake his hand, then punched him Right in the Head. Then told him to laugh about that....giving him a Cheesy BO grin.

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    While most Americans (59%) support the Lusanne negotiations and the easing of sanctions IF this results in curtailing Iran's ability to procure nuclear weapons, the exact same percentage (59%) have no confidence that any deal will achieve its noble aims.

    I am wary. The US Congress is wary. Many European nations are wary. Israel is extremely wary as are all Sunni ME nations.

    Considering the well-deserved wariness, Kerry better deliver something extraordinary and ironclad ... something which I personally highly doubt is forthcoming.


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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    While most Americans (59%) support the Lusanne negotiations and the easing of sanctions IF this results in curtailing Iran's ability to procure nuclear weapons, the exact same percentage (59%) have no confidence that any deal will achieve its noble aims.

    I am wary. The US Congress is wary. Many European nations are wary. Israel is extremely wary as are all Sunni ME nations.

    Considering the well-deserved wariness, Kerry better deliver something extraordinary and ironclad ... something which I personally highly doubt is forthcoming.
    There is China, Russia, France, the UK and Germany setting at this table. It's not all on Kerry's back.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    There is China, Russia, France, the UK and Germany setting at this table. It's not all on Kerry's back.
    Correct. However, that doesn't impact Americans' expectations. I strongly support the diplomatic process, however based on the details that have emerged in the media and comments from some of the negotiators, I expect a weak deal that falls short of the requirements set forth in UNSC Res. 1696.

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Mornin DS. Nope its not happening today......they just released they will not be able to reach a framework. The Russian fool Lavrov has shown up calling for an end to all sanctions if a deal is reached.

    All smiles and grins......I would have walked up went to shake his hand, then punched him Right in the Head. Then told him to laugh about that....giving him a Cheesy BO grin.
    We'll see what happens. I suspected that the framework agreement could be reached a few days late. Russia's position, which runs counter to those of the Western states involved in the talks, isn't all that surprising. Russia's interests with respect to Iran are not symmetrical to the Western ones. An immediate end to sanctions could boost Russian commerce and given Russia's current economic challenges, Russia would like to achieve that outcome.

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Correct. However, that doesn't impact Americans' expectations. I strongly support the diplomatic process, however based on the details that have emerged in the media and comments from some of the negotiators, I expect a weak deal that falls short of the requirements set forth in UNSC Res. 1696.
    Fair enough, we'll wait to see. Still, whatever the P5+1 agree on, is a P5+1 deal, and not a Kerry deal.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Foreign ministers arrive amid crucial weekend for Iran nuclear talks

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    We'll see what happens. I suspected that the framework agreement could be reached a few days late. Russia's position, which runs counter to those of the Western states involved in the talks, isn't all that surprising. Russia's interests with respect to Iran are not symmetrical to the Western ones. An immediate end to sanctions could boost Russian commerce and given Russia's current economic challenges, Russia would like to achieve that outcome.
    I won't disagree with that, and would point out that that would frame many a historical positions that the US has backed for similar reasons, that may not have been all that good for others though. It appears that that's what nations do, watch out for their own interests. That said, I seriously doubt that Russia, or China consider a nuclear armed Iran is a good thing.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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