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Thread: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

  1. #31
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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Israel has been investing pretty heavily in Ballistic Missile Defense for precisely that reason.
    And Iran has been investing more heavily in ballistic missile offense for the same reason.

    I wouldn't want to be on the ground in Tel Aviv if this goes South.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From today's edition of The Washington Post:



    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/un-nuclear-watchdog-iran-not-providing-needed-information-access/2015/03/24/6557b24a-d23d-11e4-8fce-3941fc548f1c_story.html

    This is exactly why any agreement will need to have an intrusive and robust verification mechanism that runs beyond periodic inspections if it is to be credible. Iran's continuing failure to provide the IAEA with relevant information even as the diplomacy is approaching a critical deadline, raises serious potential compliance issues. My view remains unchanged concerning the looming deadline: if Iran fails to reach an agreement in principle with robust verification by the end of this month, Congress should reinstall the sanctions. That Iran continues to be evasive when it comes to the IAEA's requests for information and access argues that even if such sanctions cause Iran to walk away from the talks, those sanctions may offer the best prospect for limiting the risk of illicit Iranian nuclear arms-related activities.
    I don't think anyone is surprised by that. But serious attempts should be made to come to an accord, anyway, and include stiff inspection and such rules. Every stone should be turned over before we start blowing babies' arms off. It is the average person who suffers the consequences of war the most. And long after the war ends, those people who are still alive often are left to struggle the rest of their lives with mutilated bodies and no way to earn a good living, much less living a happy life. Every effort should be made, even if it fails.

    I read that it's a good thing to hold back Iran oil with sanctions right now, though. Because of the oil glut. Don't know if that's true, but if so....something to think about.
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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    No they dont. Contradictory statements from Israel and the Israeli Mossad support this.


    Israel would never go right ahead on their own without 1.)getting the green light from us or 2.)having us somehow directly support them in someway. And I also seriously suspect that we would never allow Iran to get a bomb if they actually are going towards that end goal.
    True enough. There are many inside Israel that don't buy what Bibi's peddling. But I wouldn't put too much on them not going alone.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    True enough. There are many inside Israel that don't buy what Bibi's peddling. But I wouldn't put too much on them not going alone.
    People forget or perhaps don't understand that Israel is a nation of about 8 million while Iran has about 80 million. It also has a huge amount of wealth due to their oil reserves. So thinking that Israel will take that step as anything but a least resort are delusional.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    People forget or perhaps don't understand that Israel is a nation of about 8 million while Iran has about 80 million. It also has a huge amount of wealth due to their oil reserves. So thinking that Israel will take that step as anything but a least resort are delusional.
    Well, if it truly is reserved as a "last resort" then it won't be happening.

    People forget that Israel already has nukes!!!
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Well, if it truly is reserved as a "last resort" then it won't be happening.

    People forget that Israel already has nukes!!!
    Yes they have nukes. They had them when the country was nearly overrun in 1973, which you may not be old enough to remember.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by JumpinJack View Post
    I don't think anyone is surprised by that. But serious attempts should be made to come to an accord, anyway, and include stiff inspection and such rules.
    I favor the diplomatic process and would support a credible agreement. Such an agreement needs to fully address the IAEA's concerns and contain a robust verification mechanism. The parties need to have confidence that Iran won't try to break the agreement to rapidly pursue a nuclear weapon and, if Iran did so, there would be a very high probability that it could be caught in time to prevent its becoming a nuclear weapons state.

    Tactically, I believe the partial lifting of sanctions was not a wise move. It merely lowered the marginal gains of reaching agreement, as a smaller share of sanctions would then be lifted. Preferably, the lifting of sanctions should occur in phases over a fixed period of time once there is a credible agreement, with those phases being tied to measurable performance on the part of the Iranians.

    If the recent news accounts are accurate, it seems that a much weaker arrangement may be evolving, Iran has rejected one important component of a verification regime (snap inspections), and Iran may not be willing to even accept a specific and concrete framework by the end of this month. Add to it the IAEA Director General's recent commentary about the two unresolved substantive issues and Iran's lack of cooperation in addressing them, one should reasonably be concerned that the kind of credible agreement that is needed is something that Iran won't accept.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I favor the diplomatic process and would support a credible agreement. Such an agreement needs to fully address the IAEA's concerns and contain a robust verification mechanism. The parties need to have confidence that Iran won't try to break the agreement to rapidly pursue a nuclear weapon and, if Iran did so, there would be a very high probability that it could be caught in time to prevent its becoming a nuclear weapons state.

    Tactically, I believe the partial lifting of sanctions was not a wise move. It merely lowered the marginal gains of reaching agreement, as a smaller share of sanctions would then be lifted. Preferably, the lifting of sanctions should occur in phases over a fixed period of time once there is a credible agreement, with those phases being tied to measurable performance on the part of the Iranians.

    If the recent news accounts are accurate, it seems that a much weaker arrangement may be evolving, Iran has rejected one important component of a verification regime (snap inspections), and Iran may not be willing to even accept a specific and concrete framework by the end of this month. Add to it the IAEA Director General's recent commentary about the two unresolved substantive issues and Iran's lack of cooperation in addressing them, one should reasonably be concerned that the kind of credible agreement that is needed is something that Iran won't accept.
    Sounds good to me! You missed your calling. You should send a letter to Congress and the Prez immediately, informing them of these tactical moves we need to make.

    One question, though. If we reinstate full sanctions, does that prevent Iran from pursuing the nuclear option? Or does it just make it harder for them to make enough money to do it faster? Seems to me sanctions is helpful but doesn't address the source of any particular problem (like Cuba).
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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by JumpinJack View Post
    Sounds good to me! You missed your calling. You should send a letter to Congress and the Prez immediately, informing them of these tactical moves we need to make.

    One question, though. If we reinstate full sanctions, does that prevent Iran from pursuing the nuclear option? Or does it just make it harder for them to make enough money to do it faster? Seems to me sanctions is helpful but doesn't address the source of any particular problem (like Cuba).
    Full sanctions would slow the process. They would result in less revenue for the government and, more importantly, reduced access to components (including dual use items) that could be used for an illicit nuclear weapons program. Sanctions definitely aren't perfect and Iran has a strong capacity to absorb hardship, so sanctions won't produce major political changes there (policy or leadership).

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From today's edition of The Washington Post:



    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/un-nuclear-watchdog-iran-not-providing-needed-information-access/2015/03/24/6557b24a-d23d-11e4-8fce-3941fc548f1c_story.html

    This is exactly why any agreement will need to have an intrusive and robust verification mechanism that runs beyond periodic inspections if it is to be credible. Iran's continuing failure to provide the IAEA with relevant information even as the diplomacy is approaching a critical deadline, raises serious potential compliance issues. My view remains unchanged concerning the looming deadline: if Iran fails to reach an agreement in principle with robust verification by the end of this month, Congress should reinstall the sanctions. That Iran continues to be evasive when it comes to the IAEA's requests for information and access argues that even if such sanctions cause Iran to walk away from the talks, those sanctions may offer the best prospect for limiting the risk of illicit Iranian nuclear arms-related activities.
    Reagan: TRUST BUT VERIFY!
    Obama: I am a spineless weasel muslim appeaser who lets US/ally enemies treat me like their b1&#%.
    The Gruber-crat is strong in this one!

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