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Thread: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Submarine-launched cruise missiles are also a potential option if your goal is to create enough damage to significantly delay - the question is, can they get them through the Strait undetected.
    I'm sure they could get one of those three Dolphin-type subs into the Gulf undetected if necessary, but it's a good guess the missiles on them have large nuclear warheads--maybe a hundred kilotons or more. Easier just to launch a ballistic missile from Israel. Even there, I suspect all the warheads for them are pretty powerful--at least ten kilotons, and probably more. Since an airburst would not be effective against a deeply buried target, would mean a huge amount of radioactive fallout. Israel just doesn't have any good choices when it comes to Fordow--and yet one or two B-2's carrying the 30,000 lb. bomb could surely destroy it.

    No doubt it sounds crazy to a lot of people to talk about using nuclear weapons, but Israel will not let Iran threaten its existence. Unlike a lot of willfully ignorant people here, Israel's leaders are not taken in by the fact the Islamic jihadists in Tehran wear suits and know how to seem reasonable. When these theocrats talk about destroying Israel, they take them at their word. They know that these fanatics hate and want to exterminate Jews because in their bizarre, fundamentalist interpretation of Islam, that is what they are called on to do.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    It doesn't shock me. Moreover, I fully expect that any "agreement" if it is reached at the end of March will lack specifics and concrete details, including the vital measures related to verification. IMO, any such agreement that lacks concreteness should result in Congress's putting all the sanctions back in place, as it would be abundantly clear that Iran is merely drawing along the process, yielding little, while buying time for itself.
    I think using economic sanctions is an unreliable strategy. When a totalitarian government is determined to do something, it may just pay the price and do it. The League of Nations placed all sorts of economic sanctions on Italy in 1935, but Mussolini was hell-bent on invading Abyssinia and did it anyway. The regime in Tehran is trying to buy time with a lot of chicanery, just as it has been doing for years.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    I think using economic sanctions is an unreliable strategy. When a totalitarian government is determined to do something, it may just pay the price and do it. The League of Nations placed all sorts of economic sanctions on Italy in 1935, but Mussolini was hell-bent on invading Abyssinia and did it anyway. The regime in Tehran is trying to buy time with a lot of chicanery, just as it has been doing for years.
    I'm only referring to what Congress should do once the March deadline passes. This is a starting point, only. The easing was premised on the assumption (a flawed one, IMO) that Iran would become more flexible during negotiations. The lack of a credible agreement, especially after the deadline had already been extended, would signal that there's no purpose in sustaining the eased sanctions, as Iran had remained intransigent. Nothing would be gained from continuing the relaxation of sanctions. Iran would be the sole beneficiary of a continuation of that policy.

    Afterward, the U.S. and other major powers would need to seriously and objectively assess the risks pertaining to Iran's ongoing nuclear activities, identify contingent scenarios by which Iran could try to "break out" in developing a nuclear weapons capability, and develop robust options for minimizing the risk of such an outcome. Such an exercise would likely entail additional measures.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Iran says no snap inspections of nuclear sites

    Does anyone else get the feeling that Obama is again being bamboozled?


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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I'm only referring to what Congress should do once the March deadline passes. This is a starting point, only. The easing was premised on the assumption (a flawed one, IMO) that Iran would become more flexible during negotiations. The lack of a credible agreement, especially after the deadline had already been extended, would signal that there's no purpose in sustaining the eased sanctions, as Iran had remained intransigent. Nothing would be gained from continuing the relaxation of sanctions. Iran would be the sole beneficiary of a continuation of that policy.

    Afterward, the U.S. and other major powers would need to seriously and objectively assess the risks pertaining to Iran's ongoing nuclear activities, identify contingent scenarios by which Iran could try to "break out" in developing a nuclear weapons capability, and develop robust options for minimizing the risk of such an outcome. Such an exercise would likely entail additional measures.
    Limpwrist probably knows what a contingent scenario is, but his idea of a robust option is flapping his gums about some imaginary red line. When "additional measures" mean the serious use of military force, this sad excuse for a president is not about to take them. And the whole world knows it.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Iran says no snap inspections of nuclear sites

    Does anyone else get the feeling that Obama is again being bamboozled?
    What - good ole "Red Line" Obama? Surely Not!!!

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From today's edition of The Washington Post:



    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/un-nuclear-watchdog-iran-not-providing-needed-information-access/2015/03/24/6557b24a-d23d-11e4-8fce-3941fc548f1c_story.html

    This is exactly why any agreement will need to have an intrusive and robust verification mechanism that runs beyond periodic inspections if it is to be credible. Iran's continuing failure to provide the IAEA with relevant information even as the diplomacy is approaching a critical deadline, raises serious potential compliance issues. My view remains unchanged concerning the looming deadline: if Iran fails to reach an agreement in principle with robust verification by the end of this month, Congress should reinstall the sanctions. That Iran continues to be evasive when it comes to the IAEA's requests for information and access argues that even if such sanctions cause Iran to walk away from the talks, those sanctions may offer the best prospect for limiting the risk of illicit Iranian nuclear arms-related activities.
    Iran isn't cooperating with the IAEA? Color me shocked!

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From today's edition of The Washington Post:



    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/un-nuclear-watchdog-iran-not-providing-needed-information-access/2015/03/24/6557b24a-d23d-11e4-8fce-3941fc548f1c_story.html

    This is exactly why any agreement will need to have an intrusive and robust verification mechanism that runs beyond periodic inspections if it is to be credible. Iran's continuing failure to provide the IAEA with relevant information even as the diplomacy is approaching a critical deadline, raises serious potential compliance issues. My view remains unchanged concerning the looming deadline: if Iran fails to reach an agreement in principle with robust verification by the end of this month, Congress should reinstall the sanctions. That Iran continues to be evasive when it comes to the IAEA's requests for information and access argues that even if such sanctions cause Iran to walk away from the talks, those sanctions may offer the best prospect for limiting the risk of illicit Iranian nuclear arms-related activities.
    The President has already stated that he's not interested in pushing back the deadline. If the talks fall through then I'm sure sanctions will follow.
    ďCapitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.Ē John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    So, the real question is - what happens if Israel decides to go solo, with a passive enablement from Saudi Arabia?
    Worst case?

    Israel gets literally showered with ballistic missiles, many with MIRV capability.

    Israeli population centers (Tel Aviv and Jerusalem most notably) are reduced to rubble.

    Something like 30% to 40% of the Israeli population dies.

    If we continue to assume that a.) President Obama has no backbone and remains the ineffectual diplomat and b.) that Iran is a liar, we assume the potential for a chemical and/or biological attack.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by soot View Post
    Worst case?

    Israel gets literally showered with ballistic missiles, many with MIRV capability.

    Israeli population centers (Tel Aviv and Jerusalem most notably) are reduced to rubble.

    Something like 30% to 40% of the Israeli population dies.

    If we continue to assume that a.) President Obama has no backbone and remains the ineffectual diplomat and b.) that Iran is a liar, we assume the potential for a chemical and/or biological attack.
    Israel has been investing pretty heavily in Ballistic Missile Defense for precisely that reason.

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