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Thread: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

  1. #11
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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Israel is A) convinced that an Iranian nuclear program is an existential threat
    No they dont. Contradictory statements from Israel and the Israeli Mossad support this.

    and B) convinced that our government isn't going to do squat about it, and can't be trusted to defend them. They may not, but it is hardly implausible or even at this point perhaps unlikely. They have already launched several lower level attacks against the Iranian nuclear program, some with us, and some on their own.
    Israel would never go right ahead on their own without 1.)getting the green light from us or 2.)having us somehow directly support them in someway. And I also seriously suspect that we would never allow Iran to get a bomb if they actually are going towards that end goal.


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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Oh. So the director of the IAEA has listed out his issues, but DemSocialist knows better, based on..... his.... vast personal experience? History on the ground in Iran studying their nuclear infrastructure?
    Let's be fair. As the Dem knows Iranians would never lie to us. Only those tyrants the Israelis with their newly elected dictator would do something so ghastly.

    Besides if you are going to allow a Jewish Israeli to buy an apartment in East Jerusalem why should you not also allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon that they could transfer to Hamas or Hezballoh?

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    So, the real question is - what happens if Israel decides to go solo, with a passive enablement from Saudi Arabia?
    That IS a question. I am sure Israel will do just that, if Mr. Obama's appeasement forces it to. And I think you're right that any attack would use Saudi airspace, because the Saudi government would be all for it. Israel's 25 F-15 I's can carry the 5,000 lb. bombs it got from us, at that extreme range only one per plane because of the weight in fuel needed. That would probably be enough to destroy both galleries at Natanz. But those bombs are almost certainly not big enough to destroy the centrifuge gallery at Fordow, even if there were enough F-15's left over to strike it. It's buried too deep.

    I see someone has mentioned a commando operation, but I think that's a longshot--at least if done by Israeli forces. Fordow is near Qom, about 300 miles inside Iran, and it's sure to be strongly defended. I've heard Michael Ledeen, who watches Iran very closely, say he thinks Israel has used Iranian rebel groups for some attacks--with impressive results. It would be nice if some of them were secretly working at Fordow and could set the place on fire, but I doubt there is much to burn. The centrifuges would have to be physically wrecked, and short of fire, it would take a large blast to do that. No one could sneak that much explosive into the gallery.

    I suppose it's possible to attack the electrical supply and the machinery that regulates it with the precision the centrifuges require. I understand variations in the power supply can set off imbalance and vibration that can ruin them. I think that was the purpose of introducing the computer virus at Natanz that was talked about several years ago. If worst comes to worst, a nuclear weapon would destroy the centrifuges at Fordow, but no one wants to see that. It would have to be set off at or below ground level to do the job, and even a bomb of a couple kilotons would send a huge amount of radioactive dirt into the air. But Israel rightly sees this as a threat to its existence, and if no other way could be found, I am very sure it would use a nuclear weapon. And it would not let concern for what any other country thought of it get in the way.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    No they dont. Contradictory statements from Israel and the Israeli Mossad support this.
    Actually, yes, they do.


    Israel would never go right ahead on their own without 1.)getting the green light from us or 2.)having us somehow directly support them in someway. And I also seriously suspect that we would never allow Iran to get a bomb if they actually are going towards that end goal.
    1.) Israel doesn't need a green light from us. In fact, if Israel decides to do something without us, it's just as likely they wouldn't notify us, particularly given that the current administration has publicly and secretly released information provided by Israel to us previously with the intention of undermining their efforts. 2.) Iran has already stated that a nuclear device is their intention. Do you think they're lying? They've vowed to wipe Israel from the map. Do you think they are lying about that, too? At what point do you establish trust in the statements from the Iranian leaders? How do you differentiate between those statements you believe are bluster and those which are substantive in both nature and content?

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    No they dont. Contradictory statements from Israel and the Israeli Mossad support this.
    You were already corrected on this once and I assume that you're not intending to let the facts get in your way because you appear to keep the assertion of yours that the Mossad and the Israeli government are contradicting each other. They have not, and are not, contradicting each other on the Iranian issue. That was a misleading by the guardian and al Jazeera.
    "The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis."

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    That IS a question. I am sure Israel will do just that, if Mr. Obama's appeasement forces it to. And I think you're right that any attack would use Saudi airspace, because the Saudi government would be all for it. Israel's 25 F-15 I's can carry the 5,000 lb. bombs it got from us, at that extreme range only one per plane because of the weight in fuel needed. That would probably be enough to destroy both galleries at Natanz. But those bombs are almost certainly not big enough to destroy the centrifuge gallery at Fordow, even if there were enough F-15's left over to strike it. It's buried too deep.

    I see someone has mentioned a commando operation, but I think that's a longshot--at least if done by Israeli forces. Fordow is near Qom, about 300 miles inside Iran, and it's sure to be strongly defended. I've heard Michael Ledeen, who watches Iran very closely, say he thinks Israel has used Iranian rebel groups for some attacks--with impressive results. It would be nice if some of them were secretly working at Fordow and could set the place on fire, but I doubt there is much to burn. The centrifuges would have to be physically wrecked, and short of fire, it would take a large blast to do that. No one could sneak that much explosive into the gallery.

    I suppose it's possible to attack the electrical supply and the machinery that regulates it with the precision the centrifuges require. I understand variations in the power supply can set off imbalance and vibration that can ruin them. I think that was the purpose of introducing the computer virus at Natanz that was talked about several years ago. If worst comes to worst, a nuclear weapon would destroy the centrifuges at Fordow, but no one wants to see that. It would have to be set off at or below ground level to do the job, and even a bomb of a couple kilotons would send a huge amount of radioactive dirt into the air. But Israel rightly sees this as a threat to its existence, and if no other way could be found, I am very sure it would use a nuclear weapon. And it would not let concern for what any other country thought of it get in the way.
    Submarine-launched cruise missiles are also a potential option if your goal is to create enough damage to significantly delay - the question is, can they get them through the Strait undetected.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDemSocialist View Post
    No they dont. Contradictory statements from Israel and the Israeli Mossad support this.
    1. Israeli leadership is who makes these decisions, not Israeli intelligence. Example: US Intelligence thought that this organization called "ISIL" was a serious and growing problem all throughout early 2014, but the President of the US didn't want them to be a threat, and so he dismissed them as "JV". Result: US Policy Assumed ISIL Was JV.

    2. The documents that you are referencing (and we do not know what is briefed or what the consolidated assessment of the Israeli IC is) do not disagree with Israeli leadership as to the nature of the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, but rather diverge somewhat from his assessment of their position in the process of development.

    Israel would never go right ahead on their own without 1.)getting the green light from us or 2.)having us somehow directly support them in someway.
    Hm. And what makes you so very confident in that assumption? If Israel decides they want to destroy or significantly degrade the Iranian nuclear program, and they know that we will object strenuously and possibly even move to hinder them doing so, it makes more sense for them to simply go ahead and do it without mentioning it to us ahead of time, or to give us such a short window of warning (say, 30 minutes) that we are unable to react.

    The Israelis have already taken actions we disapprove of without getting the green light or support from us. They've already been launching attacks in Iran a'la solo. The Saudi's have also already taken major military actions we disapprove of without getting the green light or support from us. This is what happens when you convince your allies in the region that you are ineffectual and untrustworthy - you become less of a factor in their considerations.

    And I also seriously suspect that we would never allow Iran to get a bomb if they actually are going towards that end goal.
    I wish you were correct, but the evidence that is available suggests fairly strongly that the administration has decided to side with the portion of the foreign policy establishment that claims a nuclear Iran can be contained, and at this point is merely paying lip service to the notion that such would be unacceptable.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From today's edition of The Washington Post:



    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/un-nuclear-watchdog-iran-not-providing-needed-information-access/2015/03/24/6557b24a-d23d-11e4-8fce-3941fc548f1c_story.html

    This is exactly why any agreement will need to have an intrusive and robust verification mechanism that runs beyond periodic inspections if it is to be credible. Iran's continuing failure to provide the IAEA with relevant information even as the diplomacy is approaching a critical deadline, raises serious potential compliance issues. My view remains unchanged concerning the looming deadline: if Iran fails to reach an agreement in principle with robust verification by the end of this month, Congress should reinstall the sanctions. That Iran continues to be evasive when it comes to the IAEA's requests for information and access argues that even if such sanctions cause Iran to walk away from the talks, those sanctions may offer the best prospect for limiting the risk of illicit Iranian nuclear arms-related activities.
    If this news shocks anyone, well... they just haven't been paying attention
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    If this news shocks anyone, well... they just haven't been paying attention
    It doesn't shock me. Moreover, I fully expect that any "agreement" if it is reached at the end of March will lack specifics and concrete details, including the vital measures related to verification. IMO, any such agreement that lacks concreteness should result in Congress's putting all the sanctions back in place, as it would be abundantly clear that Iran is merely drawing along the process, yielding little, while buying time for itself.

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    Re: Iran isnít providing needed access or information, nuclear watchdog says

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    If this news shocks anyone, well... they just haven't been paying attention
    We had a discussion to this point the other here at DP. There are a lot of people that think we can trust the Persians.

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