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Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

tres borrachos said:
It's as partisan to credit Obama for this as it would be to credit the GOP controlled Congress. That was the point of my post. And the stimulus isn't the reason that the economy has rebounded. The economy is the reason the economy has rebounded. It has nothing to do with our government - including Obama. The economy of this country was bound to turn around to pre-2008 unemployment rates. And we did - 7 years later.
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Actually a president does get too much credit when the economy is good, and too much blame when it's bad. But still I will never forgive the GOP for what the pulled in 2009.
 
Tettsuo said:
Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5% - Bloomberg Business

Chef Obama! LOL!
Click to expand...

From the exact same report...

  • The lack of "wage rate growth" remains a concern for investors and the Fed.
  • Despite a prolonged surge in hiring, the wages of U.S. workers still are not growing very fast. Hourly wages rose $0.03 cents, or less than 0.1% to $24.78. This is a disappointment after a sharp 0.5% uptick in January, that was primarily boosted a number of states raising their minimum wage.
  • The percentage of Americans in the labor force, meanwhile, continued to hover near the lowest level since the late 1970s. Labor-force participation rate fell a notch to 62.8% in February.
  • Manufacturers created 9,000 new jobs, the smallest amount in 18 months. A stronger dollar and weak global growth has curtailed demand for American-made goods. Exports fell 2.9% in January, marking the third decline in a row.
  • Slight increase to 17.5 million Americans who want full-time work and cannot find a job, or have gotten too discouraged to look, or can only obtain part-time positions. If they are taken into account, the nation’s unemployment rate is actually a much higher 11%. While down from 11.3% from the prior month, conditions are still much higher than the official unemployment rate.

Obama does not get to claim all credit for the good parts, then turn around and ignore the underline numbers.
 
Crovax said:
latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2005_2015_all_period_M02_data.gif


This pretty much tells the whole story.
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No, it really doesn't.

To start with, your graph starts after the peak of labor force participation, and obscures how the peak was in 2001, years before the recession started.

the-labor-force-participation-rate-tanked--heres-the-not-so-scary-reason-why.jpg


(This chart is a bit out of date, but LFP has been flat for a little bit.)


Your selective chart obscures the differences by gender. Men have been slowly dropping out of the workforce for decades, offset by women joining the workforce. Women started dropping out in 2001, hence the overall drop.

saupload_lfp2.jpg



It also doesn't explain why LFP is dropping. The reasons are:
• More people are spending more time in school
• Boomers are starting to retire (a bigger effect in the past ~5 years
• Disability is going up
• And yes, some of it is discouraged workers, but certainly not all of it

We should also note that when discouraged workers try to re-enter the workforce, they get included in the official unemployment rates.


The excuse of the baby boomer retirement has passed since a big chunk of baby boomers are older than 65 and they would not be included in the rate working or not.
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No, they aren't. Boomers are currently aged 51 to 69. Most are not yet collecting SS. Many, including some who collect SS, are still currently in the workforce. And if they are looking for work, even if they are over 65, they're included in unemployment statistics.
 
Here is the problem with people complaining that the unemployment rate is some kind of "ruse": there is no better way to measure unemployment.

Secondly, LFPR has been flat/decreasing for the past fifteen years. How many of these are people that want to work but can't? None of them. If they wanted to work but couldn't, they would be considered unemployed.
 
SenorXm/Sirius said:
The rate is calculated no different now then it has been for the last couple of decades. So there are no shenanigans going on with the rate.

That said these are solid job gains. After 2008 I never thought we'd see the rate anywhere near 5% again.
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That is a fabrication, Obama has changed it and you are on a different scale than the countries around you. You count unemployed, the accurate stat is "jobless".....
 
Looks like they left something out again.
" Once again, the energy sector saw the heaviest job cutting in February, with these firms announcing 16,339 job cuts, due primarily to oil prices.

Falling oil prices have been responsible for 39,621 job cuts, to date. That represents 38 percent of all recorded workforce reductions announced in the first two months of 2015. In February, 36 percent of all job cuts (18,299) were blamed on oil prices.

“Oil exploration and extraction companies, as well as the companies that supply them, are definitely feeling the impact of the lowest oil prices since 2009. These companies, while reluctant to completely shutter operations, are being forced to trim payrolls to contain costs,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas."
 
Rearden said:
Looks like they left something out again.
" Once again, the energy sector saw the heaviest job cutting in February, with these firms announcing 16,339 job cuts, due primarily to oil prices.

Falling oil prices have been responsible for 39,621 job cuts, to date. That represents 38 percent of all recorded workforce reductions announced in the first two months of 2015. In February, 36 percent of all job cuts (18,299) were blamed on oil prices.

“Oil exploration and extraction companies, as well as the companies that supply them, are definitely feeling the impact of the lowest oil prices since 2009. These companies, while reluctant to completely shutter operations, are being forced to trim payrolls to contain costs,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas."
Click to expand...

Lower gas prices will cause job cuts in the energy sector, but because lower gas prices mean more money in the pockets of consumers that is good for the rest of our economy.
 
Crovax said:
People dont vote on numbers, the unemployment rate could be 0.1% but if a guy has been out of work the past 8 years he not going to think that those policies are working. The fact is there are a lot of people out of the workforce who would rather be in it and that 5.5% means jack **** to them.
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If everyone just votes on their personal situation, then the dems should be in good shape because there are about half as many people unemployed as there was at the peak of the recession.
 
Simon W. Moon said:
What Baby Boomers’ Retirement Means For the U.S. Economy | FiveThirtyEight

casselman-feature-boomers-1.png



:shrug:
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labor participation rate only counts those 16 to 65 so it doesnt matter how big the percentage of our population is over 65 it has no bearing on the rate and I will again point out that if baby boomer early retirement was the major cause of the rate drop then in 2011 when the baby boomers aged out of the rate calculation the rate would start to flatten out but it hasnt.
 
Government
‘Do Nothing Congress?’ House Passed More Than 350 Bills That Sit on Harry Reid’s Desk, Says Congresswoman
Aug. 1, 2014 9:02pm Mike Opelka
3.6K
Shares

Editor’s Note:

Rep. Marsha Blackburn joined Mike Opelka on Saturday morning on TheBlaze Radio's "Pure Opelka." You can listen to the interview, starting at the 10:30 point of the broadcast, here.

According to many liberal media outlets, the House of Representatives has been a complete failure. Hosts and guests on various MSNBC programs frequently call this the “Do Nothing Congress,” while slamming the GOP leadership for the lack of bills being passed.

Is this an accurate portrayal?
Image: MSNBC

Image: MSNBC

Al Sharpton and Ed Schultz have repeatedly bludgeoned their viewers with statistics and charts claiming that this Congress has been the least productive legislative body in America’s history.

However, according to Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), the House has passed a bevy of bills that are sitting on Harry Reid’s desk in the Senate.

How many bills? Blackburn told TheBlaze that 356 bills made it through the House and are languishing in the Senate.

Additionally, according to the congresswoman, 98 percent of those bills were passed with bipartisan support. She also pointed out that 200 of the bills were passed in the House with unanimous support from the entire chamber and more than 100 were passed with 75% support of House Democrats.

To make her point that the House is working, but the Senate is where the obstruction exists, Blackburn printed all of the bills that the House has passed and stacked them on a desk with a Harry Reid nameplate. She took a photo standing next to the pile of bills and posted it on her Twitter account. (When Blackburn started this campaign, 332 bills had been passed. At press time, that had number increased to 356.)

332 bills #StuckInTheSenate pic.twitter.com/vxw93nFHfD

— Marsha Blackburn (@MarshaBlackburn) July 25, 2014

Kansas Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins pointed out the bipartisan support for the House bills.

Numbers never lie: Over 50% of the 352 bills sitting on Harry Reid's desk passed the House unanimously, zero opposition. #StuckInTheSenate

— Lynn Jenkins (@RepLynnJenkins) July 29, 2014

Rep. Larry Putnam (N.C.) posed with the pile and sent a message to Reid.

We Have Been Abused by Obama,Under Harry Reid’s control, there are 356 bills & It's UR Fault? #StuckInTheSenate pic.twitter.com/bWaO9ygPq1

— Larry Putnam (@Larryputt) August 1, 2014

// ]]>

Even Speaker Boehner tweeted about the mountain on bills that have been relegated to the back burner by Reid, calling it a "Sharknado" of House-passed bills.

A #Sharknado of House-passed #jobs bills are #StuckInTheSenate. Time for Senate Democrats to get to work. pic.twitter.com/7djOmUV01o — Speaker John Boehner (@SpeakerBoehner) July 30, 2014

On July 31, Blackburn and another Republican Representative, Renee Ellmers of North Carolina posted an article titled, "Let's Get The Senate Back To Work" on Blogher.com.

In that blog post, Blackburn and Ellmers point out that 40 of the bills sitting in the Senate "are directly related to job creation, growth, and retention."

Also, the two legislators point out that bills offering very specific assistance to the "more than 3.4 million workers between the ages of 20 and 59" missing from our labor force.

The post ends with some strong language about the Senate Majority Leader.

"We are calling on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to get off his self-constructed throne, roll up his sleeves, and get back to work. Real lives, a real economy, and a true American recovery hang in the balance."
SenorXm/Sirius said:
Yes they did. Still doesn't forgive what the GOP did. What matters to me was that meeting and the video of McConnell saying the #1 priority of the GOP was making Obama a 1 term president. Not jobs, not fixing the collapsing economy. But the winning the wh. That's unforgivable to me.
Click to expand...
 
OrphanSlug said:
Obama does not get to claim all credit for the good parts, then turn around and ignore the underline numbers.
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity, when has he done that? I don't recall him ignoring the wage issue. I don't think he's even made a statement yet on the new numbers.
 
mmi said:
Good luck with that in 2016. Complaining that baby boomers are retiring, students are staying in school, and more women are staying home to raise young children won't do much to convince voters to turn against policies that have brought the economy back from the brink of the disaster it was nearly pushed into by deregulation of the financial sector.

The relatively low LFPR, combined with a growing belief among economists that the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU) in the US may now be as low as 4%, will allow the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. We are now six years into a twenty-year expansion … if we can avoid screwing things up.
Click to expand...

People who aren't looking for a job aren't unemployed, most of them are students, homemakers and retired folks, so the lfpr could matter less to the voter.
 
Crovax said:
If you look at the actual birth rate the drop off of birth rate is in 1959 with a lesser drop in 1949 yet there is no correlation of that in the labor participation rate which continues to drop at a steady rate. If baby boomers were the cause you would see the labor participation rate start to level off in 2011 but that is not the case.
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Nope. I have know idea why you think that, you must not understand how the lfpr works. As the percent of our population who are retired increases, the labor force participation rate will continue to fall.

The fact that it did level off a little over a year ago indicates that the recession recovery is temporarily keeping the lfpr from dropping, but once we achieve full recovery, it will resume the steady decrease.
 
imagep said:
People who aren't looking for a job aren't unemployed, most of them are students, homemakers and retired folks, so the lfpr could matter less to the voter.
Click to expand...

Thinking about it like that, could the lfpr be lowered by illegal aliens being counted in the census but not counted as working off the books?
 
imagep said:
People who aren't looking for a job aren't unemployed, most of them are students, homemakers and retired folks, so the lfpr could matter less to the voter.
Click to expand...

So you are in total disagreement with the members of the Fed. Guess who I will stand with?
 
imagep said:
The only thing that the lfpr proves is that fewer Americans are having to work. I don't know that that's a bad thing. I wish I didn't have to work. It has nothing to do with the economy.
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it has everything to do with the unemployment rate though. these people aren't counted in the unemployment rate. so it lowers the unemployment rate whenever they stop actively looking for work making it seem way better than what it was.

It is a total distortion of the actual unemployment rate. the U6 number is way better number to look at because it includes all of the people not just some cherry picked rosy scenario in order to gain political points.
 
Rearden said:
Government
‘Do Nothing Congress?’ House Passed More Than 350 Bills That Sit on Harry Reid’s Desk, Says Congresswoman
Aug. 1, 2014 9:02pm Mike Opelka
3.6K
Shares

Editor’s Note:

Rep. Marsha Blackburn joined Mike Opelka on Saturday morning on TheBlaze Radio's "Pure Opelka." You can listen to the interview, starting at the 10:30 point of the broadcast, here.

According to many liberal media outlets, the House of Representatives has been a complete failure. Hosts and guests on various MSNBC programs frequently call this the “Do Nothing Congress,” while slamming the GOP leadership for the lack of bills being passed.

Is this an accurate portrayal?
Image: MSNBC

Image: MSNBC

Al Sharpton and Ed Schultz have repeatedly bludgeoned their viewers with statistics and charts claiming that this Congress has been the least productive legislative body in America’s history.

However, according to Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), the House has passed a bevy of bills that are sitting on Harry Reid’s desk in the Senate.

How many bills? Blackburn told TheBlaze that 356 bills made it through the House and are languishing in the Senate.

Additionally, according to the congresswoman, 98 percent of those bills were passed with bipartisan support. She also pointed out that 200 of the bills were passed in the House with unanimous support from the entire chamber and more than 100 were passed with 75% support of House Democrats.

To make her point that the House is working, but the Senate is where the obstruction exists, Blackburn printed all of the bills that the House has passed and stacked them on a desk with a Harry Reid nameplate. She took a photo standing next to the pile of bills and posted it on her Twitter account. (When Blackburn started this campaign, 332 bills had been passed. At press time, that had number increased to 356.)

332 bills #StuckInTheSenate pic.twitter.com/vxw93nFHfD

— Marsha Blackburn (@MarshaBlackburn) July 25, 2014

Kansas Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins pointed out the bipartisan support for the House bills.

Numbers never lie: Over 50% of the 352 bills sitting on Harry Reid's desk passed the House unanimously, zero opposition. #StuckInTheSenate

— Lynn Jenkins (@RepLynnJenkins) July 29, 2014

Rep. Larry Putnam (N.C.) posed with the pile and sent a message to Reid.

We Have Been Abused by Obama,Under Harry Reid’s control, there are 356 bills & It's UR Fault? #StuckInTheSenate pic.twitter.com/bWaO9ygPq1

— Larry Putnam (@Larryputt) August 1, 2014

// ]=]=>

Even Speaker Boehner tweeted about the mountain on bills that have been relegated to the back burner by Reid, calling it a "Sharknado" of House-passed bills.

A #Sharknado of House-passed #jobs bills are #StuckInTheSenate. Time for Senate Democrats to get to work. pic.twitter.com/7djOmUV01o — Speaker John Boehner (@SpeakerBoehner) July 30, 2014

On July 31, Blackburn and another Republican Representative, Renee Ellmers of North Carolina posted an article titled, "Let's Get The Senate Back To Work" on Blogher.com.

In that blog post, Blackburn and Ellmers point out that 40 of the bills sitting in the Senate "are directly related to job creation, growth, and retention."

Also, the two legislators point out that bills offering very specific assistance to the "more than 3.4 million workers between the ages of 20 and 59" missing from our labor force.

The post ends with some strong language about the Senate Majority Leader.

"We are calling on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to get off his self-constructed throne, roll up his sleeves, and get back to work. Real lives, a real economy, and a true American recovery hang in the balance."
Click to expand...

The Blaze huh? Anyway how many of those bills had poison pills in them, like the current fight about funding DHS.

Boehner and McConnell are on tape and in print saying how little they cared about the people losing their jobs.
 
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