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Thread: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    because the person is still unemployed and who knows the reason.

    if everyone left the work force we could have an unemployement rate of 0% based on U3 calculations you should be jumping for joy there are no unemployed people in the US.
    it is a BS number.

    cool I have 100k people find a job ol wait I had 175k people stop looking for work for X,Y reason *cheers the unemployment rate dropped*
    that is not a good sign at all. in fact it is a bad sign.

    it didn't drop because people found more work it dropped because people quit looking for work.
    that is why you need to look at the U5 and U6 numbers not U3.

    what part of this don't you understand. U3 is a joke and everyone knows it.
    +1


    Well...everyone knows it who is not close minded.

    Unfortunately, that seems to make up a huge number of Americans.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    An interesting bit of research:

    The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?
    We measure the effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment. We exploit the variation induced by the decision of Congress in December 2013 not to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states at the beginning of December 2013 were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. We find that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0.0161 log points. In levels, 1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut. Almost 1 million of these jobs were filled by workers from out of the labor force who would not have participated in the labor market had benefit extensions been reauthorized.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    No, lot's of people live off of their lifetime savings.

    Bill Gates is included as not working in the lfpr - he is retired, and I doubt that he is getting welfare. My 99 year old granny lives off a combination of her lifetime savings and social security.
    And yet you said in post #62 she was included in LPFR, which is it???

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Cutting UI benefits creates jobs?

    "1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut"

    How does that chain of events work I wonder.

    I expected it to say that jobs were found/gotten/accepted.
    But created?

    Fascinating.
    I may be wrong.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Simon W. Moon View Post
    Cutting UI benefits creates jobs?

    "1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut"

    How does that chain of events work I wonder.

    I expected it to say that jobs were found/gotten/accepted.
    But created?

    Fascinating.
    I believe they found that letting UI benefits expire drove people to find a job, 1.8 million of them. Out of that, 55% would have continued staying on UI instead of getting a job.

    I think there are about 4.8 million open jobs right now. They don't count as created until someone is hired though.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    I truly do not understand how this is mysterious to anyone. We said this 4 years ago and it is continually being proven true. As long as the labor rate participation pool increases and people become ineligible for services, the unemployment rates will 'improve'. Trumpeting 'success' in the face of 93 million Americans no longer in the work force, the highest unemployment numbers in 37 years, record numbers of women unemployed, ridiculously high unemployment rates of black Americans, etc. sounds a little silly. Hell...bump that up another 30-40 million and we could have unemployment down around 3-4%.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    I think there are about 4.8 million open jobs right now. They don't count as created until someone is hired though.
    Can you provide some backing for your assertion that jobs are not "created" until they are filled?
    I have never heard of that before.
    I may be wrong.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Interestingly these made up numbers are no longer making the WSers fell all warm and fuzzy. Maybe they think Yellens "patients" has run out. Oh happy day Interest rates going up will do wonders for that 18 trillion washington has rung up on the credit card.
    DJIA$DJI
    17,953.37-182.35(-1.01%)

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    I truly do not understand how this is mysterious to anyone. We said this 4 years ago and it is continually being proven true. As long as the labor rate participation pool increases and people become ineligible for services, the unemployment rates will 'improve'. Trumpeting 'success' in the face of 93 million Americans no longer in the work force, the highest unemployment numbers in 37 years, record numbers of women unemployed, ridiculously high unemployment rates of black Americans, etc. sounds a little silly. Hell...bump that up another 30-40 million and we could have unemployment down around 3-4%.
    But--------------- 249 million Americans are employed, the most in history.
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by VanceMack View Post
    I truly do not understand how this is mysterious to anyone. We said this 4 years ago and it is continually being proven true. As long as the labor rate participation pool increases and people become ineligible for services, the unemployment rates will 'improve'....
    Yes, that's why we also look at U6 and labor force participation rates.

    In particular, LFP rates started falling in 2001, and have stayed at around 62.8% since October 2013.

    And as already noted: Much of this is...
    More people spending more time in school
    More people retiring
    More people collecting disability

    There's no question that there were some cyclical factors at work. However, there are also broader demographic ones which have pushed down LFPR for over a decade, and which are not any politician's fault.

    By the way, let's also look at some other good news.
    The number of people taking part-time work for economic reasons, while still high, has dropped to 7 million, from a high of 9 million in 2010.
    The number of people unemployed for 27+ weeks has dropped to near-normal 3 million, from a high of nearly 7 million in 2011
    The percent of long-term unemployed has dropped to 35%, from a high of 45% in 2010
    The number of people who are unemployed because of job losses has dropped to 4 million, from a high of 10 million in 2010
    The number of temporary layoffs stayed steady, while long-term fell to 3 million from a high of 8 million in 2010
    Contrary to your assertion, the unemployment rate for women is at a very normal 5.5%
    The unemployment rate for blacks is back to normal ranges, while the rate for Hispanics is actually below normal
    Unemployment rate for people with only a high school degree is fairly normal at 8%, down from a high of 16% in 2010
    The number of people not in the labor force looking for a job is higher than usual, but around the same as in the mid 1990s
    The number of discouraged workers, while higher than normal, is at around 750,000 -- down from a high of 1.2 million in 2010

    http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf

    Oh, and the quits rate is slowly edging up, and heading towards normal territory. This is a measure of how willing people are to leave their jobs, which also means how confident they are they'll get another job, or got hired already for another job.


    Trumpeting 'success' in the face of... the highest unemployment numbers in 37 years
    Incorrect.

    The U3 rate has dropped from 10% to 5.5% in just a few years, and we're on the longest streak of adding jobs since the late 90s. U6 is also back to 2009 levels, and trending down.


    ridiculously high unemployment rates of black Americans
    Unemployment rates for African-Americans have always been higher than for the general population.


    Hell...bump that up another 30-40 million and we could have unemployment down around 3-4%.
    My understanding is that due to the demographic shifts (mostly Boomers getting older), economists are starting to revise the numbers for "full employment" down to 4%, from 5%.

    Not everything is rosy and bright, but the trends are definitely in the right direction, and there are a lot fewer discouraged workers than just a few years ago.

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