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Thread: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    then why claim victory of a lower unemployment rate when the main reason for the drop was people not looking for work?
    you can't. it is a BS number. a person not looking for work or given up looking for work is still unemployed. they have no job and more than likely their unemployment check ran out.
    that doesn't make them less unemployed.
    If 295,000 more people are employed, that's a victory. It's a pretty strong number in any economy, and far more new jobs than were produced on average during the Reagan years.

    But keep looking for creative ways to bash our economy, I am sure that will make things better.
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    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    People who aren't looking for a job aren't unemployed, most of them are students, homemakers and retired folks, so the lfpr could matter less to the voter.
    But why are they doing those things? Because they want to? Or because they have no choice as they cannot find work?

    The U-3 rate is a joke. Even the Fed - in essence - agrees as they used to use it as a guidepost to raise rates again. 6% was the magic number. Well, we are well past that and no rate hikes. In fact, the Fed no longer even mentions the unemployment rate because they obviously, finally realized that it is an INCREDIBLY flawed indicator of the American employment situation.

    You could have no one working in America and still theoretically have a U-3 rate of zero (or almost zero). Ridiculous.

    As far as I am concerned - and I could care less what the BLS thinks - if you want a job but cannot find a job and have given up looking for work...you ARE unemployed. I don't care what you chose to do take up your time. Homemaking, school, underwater basket weaving...whatever. If you still want a job and took up those other things primarily because you could not find work...then you ARE unemployed, IMO.

    And the principle reason the government does not count them is to make the U-3 number look better, IMO.
    Last edited by DA60; 03-06-15 at 12:18 PM.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    There is no relationship between the unemployment rate and the lfpr.

    You are welcome to look at the U6, that's perfectly valid, but don't compare todays U6 to previous U3 figures. Back when Bush was POTUS, which number did you pay attention to?
    I look at both of them as well.

    U6 Unemployment Rate | Portal Seven

    here is a great graph.
    you can see where the recessions hit.

    however still under bush the U6 number stayed in the 8-10 range.
    for Obama it has been falling but it is still in the 10-12% range.

    you can see it falling which means more people are working. maybe U6 isn't as good as it does include part-time workers that work for economic reasons only.
    U5 would be a good source as well.

    I think between U5 and U6 you can get a good picture of what the economy is actually doing.
    U3 is great if you only want to look at the active work force.
    it is crap when it drops simply because people leave the work force.

    more so when more people leave than get hired.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    But why are they doing those things? Because they want to? Or because they have no choice as they cannot find work?...
    If they don't bother to look for a job, of course they aren't going to be able to find work, and they have obviously discovered a way to survive without working. Like retirement.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    What Baby Boomers’ Retirement Means For the U.S. Economy | FiveThirtyEight

    It’s no coincidence that the U.S. labor force participation rate — the share of the adult population that has a job or is trying to find one — hit a record high in the late 1990s, when the boomers were at the peak of their working lives.
    It’s been downhill ever since. The participation rate hit a 36-year low last month, and while there are multiple reasons for the decline, the aging of the baby boom generation is a dominant factor. In 2003, 82 percent of boomers were part of the labor force; a decade later, that number has declined to 66 percent, and it will only continue to fall.

    Missing: Up To 4 Million Workers | FiveThirtyEight

    A lot of economists have tried to solve the puzzle of declining labor force participation, with widely varying results. Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, for example, recently concluded that about two-thirds of the decline in the labor force can be attributed to demographics and other so-called structural factors. But economists at the International Monetary Fund mostly blame the weak economy.
    One reason for this disagreement is that there are actually two different questions, which often get muddled: The first is how many people would have left the labor force even if the recession had never happened. The second is how many of those who have left will ever return.2 It’s worth considering these separately.
    I may be wrong.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    It's not a BS number. It makes complete sense. If someone doesn't have a job, and is actively looking for work, they are unemployed. If someone is not actively looking for work, they are outside of the labor force because of the very fact that they aren't looking for work. How does that not make sense to you?
    because the person is still unemployed and who knows the reason.

    if everyone left the work force we could have an unemployement rate of 0% based on U3 calculations you should be jumping for joy there are no unemployed people in the US.
    it is a BS number.

    cool I have 100k people find a job ol wait I had 175k people stop looking for work for X,Y reason *cheers the unemployment rate dropped*
    that is not a good sign at all. in fact it is a bad sign.

    it didn't drop because people found more work it dropped because people quit looking for work.
    that is why you need to look at the U5 and U6 numbers not U3.

    what part of this don't you understand. U3 is a joke and everyone knows it.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    But why are they doing those things? Because they want to? Or because they have no choice as they cannot find work?

    The U-3 rate is a joke. Even the Fed - in essence - agrees as they used to use it as a guidepost to raise rates again. 6% was the magic number. Well, we are well past that and no rate hikes. In fact, the Fed no longer even mentions the unemployment rate because they obviously, finally realized that it is an INCREDIBLY flawed indicator of the American employment situation.

    You could have no one working in America and still theoretically have a U-3 rate of zero (or almost zero). Ridiculous.

    As far as I am concerned - and I could care less what the BLS thinks - if you want a job but cannot find a job and have given up looking for work...you ARE unemployed. I don't care what you chose to do take up your time. Homemaking, school, underwater basket weaving...whatever. If you still want a job and took up those other things primarily because you could not find work...then you ARE unemployed, IMO.

    And the principle reason the government does not count them is to make the U-3 number look better, IMO.
    If you want a job but aren't looking for a job then it is stupid to consider yourself unemployed.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    But why are they doing those things? Because they want to? Or because they have no choice as they cannot find work?

    The U-3 rate is a joke. Even the Fed - in essence - agrees as they used to use it as a guidepost to raise rates again. 6% was the magic number. Well, we are well past that and no rate hikes. In fact, the Fed no longer even mentions the unemployment rate because they obviously, finally realized that it is an INCREDIBLY flawed indicator of the American employment situation.

    You could have no one working in America and still theoretically have a U-3 rate of zero (or almost zero). Ridiculous.

    As far as I am concerned - and I could care less what the BLS thinks - if you want a job but cannot find a job and have given up looking for work...you ARE unemployed. I don't care what you chose to do take up your time. Homemaking, school, underwater basket weaving...whatever. If you still want a job and took up those other things primarily because you could not find work...then you ARE unemployed, IMO.

    And the principle reason the government does not count them is to make the U-3 number look better, IMO.
    Rates will start climbing this summer. Been tired of gaining .99% on my savings, and I doubt I will see the 8% I had when I was a kid, but I would settle for 3-4%.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    If they don't bother to look for a job, of course they aren't going to be able to find work, and they have obviously discovered a way to survive without working. Like retirement.
    You cannot look for a job forever without doing something else. Eventually, you have to move on.

    And if the only reason that person retired was because they could not find work - AND that person would work if they could find it AND is physically capable of working - then that person is, IMO, unemployed.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    No, there is no upper limit to lfpr.

    My 99 year old granny is included in the lfpr.
    ... well, tell her to get off her duff and get a job.

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