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Thread: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

  1. #61
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I'm no supporter of welfare, but most of those people aren't on welfare.

    The number of rich people increases every year, and the number of retired people also increases. Also the current trend today is for young folks to stay in their parents households longer. And more families are becoming single income earner families so that the spouse doesn't have to work outside the home.

    Back in the good ole days, it was expected that the wife would stay at home and be a homemaker and a good mom. Republicans used to believe in family values, obviously they no longer believe in family values.
    if they aren't working and not getting some kind of government living check then they are living with their parents or they are involved in something illegal under the table.
    none of this is a good thing.

    you would be 100% wrong on the family values and you have no evidence to support this claim.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Crovax View Post
    labor participation rate only counts those 16 to 65 so it doesnt matter how big the percentage of our population is over 65 it has no bearing on the rate and I will again point out that if baby boomer early retirement was the major cause of the rate drop then in 2011 when the baby boomers aged out of the rate calculation the rate would start to flatten out but it hasnt.
    No, there is no upper limit to lfpr.

    My 99 year old granny is included in the lfpr.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I always look forward you your jobs report analysis. You are most capable of finding the black lining in every white cloud.
    because when you get into the details there wasn't a white cloud to begin with.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Khayembii Communique View Post
    But if someone isn't actively looking for work then how can they be considered part of the labor force?
    then why claim victory of a lower unemployment rate when the main reason for the drop was people not looking for work?
    you can't. it is a BS number. a person not looking for work or given up looking for work is still unemployed. they have no job and more than likely their unemployment check ran out.
    that doesn't make them less unemployed.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    it has everything to do with the unemployment rate though. these people aren't counted in the unemployment rate. so it lowers the unemployment rate whenever they stop actively looking for work making it seem way better than what it was.

    It is a total distortion of the actual unemployment rate. the U6 number is way better number to look at because it includes all of the people not just some cherry picked rosy scenario in order to gain political points.
    There is no relationship between the unemployment rate and the lfpr.

    You are welcome to look at the U6, that's perfectly valid, but don't compare todays U6 to previous U3 figures. Back when Bush was POTUS, which number did you pay attention to?
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Crovax View Post
    It can, it improved a lot when Clinton was president.

    The fact is that the unemployment rate can give a false picture because of the strict definition of it. People who were so discouraged they have stopped looking for work make the unemployment number look good but they haven't rejoined the workforce as the labor participation rate shows.



    This pretty much tells the whole story. The labor participation rate should actually be higher now with many more single parent households but it continues to drop. The excuse of the baby boomer retirement has passed since a big chunk of baby boomers are older than 65 and they would not be included in the rate working or not.



    Except that it has been shown that ~ half of the decline in LFPR is due to boomers retiring.
    Baby Boomers Are a Big Part of Labor Participation Rate Decline - US News

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Crovax View Post
    It can, it improved a lot when Clinton was president.

    The fact is that the unemployment rate can give a false picture because of the strict definition of it. People who were so discouraged they have stopped looking for work make the unemployment number look good but they haven't rejoined the workforce as the labor participation rate shows.



    This pretty much tells the whole story. The labor participation rate should actually be higher now with many more single parent households but it continues to drop. The excuse of the baby boomer retirement has passed since a big chunk of baby boomers are older than 65 and they would not be included in the rate working or not.
    Another person that does not understand what the labor participation rate is, more specifically the not in the workforce number. Feel free to better understand the number and then get back to us... (note: I do appreciate the fact that it takes a little while to research this.... the BLS does not track the components of Not in WorkForce that well... the number are out there).

    Let me help you. Substantially all of the Not in Workforce number consists of retired persons, students and stay at home moms. Discouraged workers are about 2% of the NIWF number. The Labor Force Participation rate falling can be a sign of a good economy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/up...abt=0002&abg=1

    Its a shallow, almost nonsensical response to improving unemployment numbers put forth by right-wing radio guys that play upon their uneducated dittoheads. As dittoheads never check things out for themselves, they just repeat it and their friends repeat it, making for a larger pool of ignorant people. Instead of actually making an intelligent argument from things they understand, they throw facts around in a way that dumbs us all down. Frankly, its rather pathetic.
    Last edited by upsideguy; 03-06-15 at 12:31 PM.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Crovax View Post
    labor participation rate only counts those 16 to 65 so it doesnt matter how big the percentage of our population is over 65 it has no bearing on the rate and I will again point out that if baby boomer early retirement was the major cause of the rate drop then in 2011 when the baby boomers aged out of the rate calculation the rate would start to flatten out but it hasnt.
    Who are the people who will reach the age of 65 between now an 2029 if not Baby boomers?
    Seems to be a definition kind of thing almost.

    The graph seems to indicate that the rate at which people arrive at an age of 65 or older will increase.
    That rate increase indicates that the "big chunk" you refer to includes only a minority of Boomers.

    Most Boomers have not retired nor reached retirement age it seems.

    ymmv
    I may be wrong.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    then why claim victory of a lower unemployment rate when the main reason for the drop was people not looking for work?
    you can't. it is a BS number. a person not looking for work or given up looking for work is still unemployed. they have no job and more than likely their unemployment check ran out.
    that doesn't make them less unemployed.
    It's not a BS number. It makes complete sense. If someone doesn't have a job, and is actively looking for work, they are unemployed. If someone is not actively looking for work, they are outside of the labor force because of the very fact that they aren't looking for work. How does that not make sense to you?
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    if they aren't working and not getting some kind of government living check then they are living with their parents or they are involved in something illegal under the table.
    none of this is a good thing.

    you would be 100% wrong on the family values and you have no evidence to support this claim.
    No, lot's of people live off of their lifetime savings.

    Bill Gates is included as not working in the lfpr - he is retired, and I doubt that he is getting welfare. My 99 year old granny lives off a combination of her lifetime savings and social security.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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