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Thread: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

  1. #161
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by WallStreetVixen View Post
    No it isn't, but that's exactly why I'm not wrong.

    What sector that isn't part of goods producing that has lower GDP output than leisure and hospitality?
    I really don't know that it matters. Gains in leisure and hospitality were only a percentage of our total job gains, which is exactly what I would expect.

    You mentioned manufacturing, among other things, as being more productive. In an age where improvements in technology is replacing the need for manufacturing jobs, we can't really expect manufacturing to be a huge job creator. Even if our manufacturing sector started growing like crazy, job creation in manufacturing is most likely going to lag behind other sectors which are more dependent upon low cost human labor.

    The same with finance. Since there is virtually no need for shipping or material handling in finance, and since it is largely a matter of just shuffling numbers, many of it's tasks are very likely to being replaced by automation and computerization.

    Any particular sector can grow in size and production, without having huge gains in jobs.
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  2. #162
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    ...

    Any particular sector can grow in size and production, without having huge gains in jobs.
    Regardless, we shouldn't be knocking any job gains in any sector, they are all important, and as I previously mentioned, when entertainment and hospitality gain jobs, that is an indicator that demand is increasing, which is of course a good thing.

    I take sort of a libertarian view on this. Job growth will be in what ever sector demand growth is in, and we shouldn't try to manipulate what sectors are growing, the free market does a pretty good job of determining what people desire and how to allocate resources. Trying to change this would only distort our market and result in a mis-allocation of resources which would hold back economic growth.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  3. #163
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by WallStreetVixen View Post
    That increases value, which translates into higher wages for the purpose of economic growth and demand. The problem with leisure and hospitality is that it doesn't create much value because it's a highly unproductive sector. And if you're not creating value then you're wasting resources.
    That's quite a leap of logic, especially in today's economy.

    First, even if the jobs are far from ideal, it's better for 295,000 people to be employed than to collect unemployment, or a type of welfare, or not have an income.

    Second, we aren't in a centrally planned economy. Unless the government engages in an absurdly large stimulus, no one can wave a magic wand and hire people exclusively in high-output sectors. Job openings will be created in the sectors that need to hire more employees.

    Third, it isn't necessarily a bad sign for certain "unproductive" sectors to have job growth. As noted, growth in the hospitality sector means that more people are spending money on things like vacations and dining out. You're far less likely to take the family to Disneyland if you're unemployed, or concerned you will lose your job next week, or already burdened by big consumer debts.

    Fourth, wages are typically based not on productivity or sector output, but on factors like supply, demand, experience, skillset, and relative wages. If you need a high-skilled person to perform an "unproductive" job (e.g. senior hotel manager), the hotel's owner is not going to say "you know, hotels are not as productive for the economy as a whole as mining for coal, so I'm going to pay you less than a coal miner."


    This becomes a net drain on the economy, because these resources can be used elsewhere in sectors that are productivity, while possibly creating higher paying jobs.
    Oh? Are dollars spent on the hospitality industry actually subtracted from GDP, then? Is our economy in deep trouble because we spend billions on movies, vacations, concerts and video games? How curious.

    Why would municipalities do things to increase tourism, if it's the economic equivalent of crack cocaine?

    Was building the High Line in NYC a "net drain" on the NYC economy?

    Production is not an inherent good or a final goal. We do not increase productivity for the sake of increasing productivity because we want to increase productivity. We produce to satisfy demand, and a big surplus of goods doesn't provide much benefit.

    Look at the oil industry. Presumably energy is a value-enhancing sector. However, we're producing so much oil that prices cratered, and storage is becoming an issue -- an issue big enough that a company is starting to trade oil storage futures. We shouldn't produce oil for the sake of producing more oil, but to meet demand.


    The leisure and hospitality sector didn't become the lowest output sector by accident. If it wasn't for the goods producing sector of the economy, it would be the sector with the least economic output. As many employment gains as it received since the start of the recovery, it's unacceptable...
    http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml...&5114=q&5102=5
    Oddly enough, the BLS seems quite content about the hospitality sector as driving job growth during the recession:
    http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-3...job-growth.htm

  4. #164
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by WallStreetVixen
    There are plenty of jobs besides construction and research that create lasting value. Education, health, finance, information technology, manufacturing, professional/technical services etc etc. The economy increasingly needs more of these jobs.
    Does it? Let's think.

    IT is overhead. No one likes paying for overhead. I'm fairly confident companies would prefer to spend as little as they can on IT, and automate as much IT as possible.

    Manufacturing employment has been shrinking as a percentage of the US workforce since the 1950s, and is now down to around 10%. It's an industry that is increasingly outsourced and automated. Manufacturers vastly prefer to drive down costs, if they can do so while maintaining or improving quality. And "more manufacturing output" is only truly beneficial if it meets an existing need.

    We should also note that manufacturing is, again, a means rather than an ends. If the hotel doesn't have guests, it won't buy those tiny little shampoos, which means the manufacturer won't profit by producing tiny shampoo bottles, which means that company won't order raw supplies from its vendors. See how it all fits together? Or should manufacturers only sell products for uses that enhance productivity?

    Do we really need to spend more on health care? Seriously?

    Do we really need more lawyers? Seriously?

    Do you want more jobs for bankers, because BofA, Citi and JPM whacked 50,000 employees off the rolls in January? (How many of those jobs were automated out of existence by IT systems?)

    I heartily agree we need to improve education, and I'm confident that hiring more teachers and paying them more is very likely a component of that. Just for the record, I don't think we should improve education in order to enhance GDP.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Where were you when Obama increased the welfare rolls? Oh yeah, probably cheering him on.


    He had no hand in the much improved U.S. economy, but unilaterally increased the number of people receiving "welfare"! Reconstructing reality to reinforce one's belief system must be a drain. Why not try and think for yourself?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Chainsaw View Post
    Since the liberals have a made it comfortable to ride the entitlement deadbeat-wagon, more Americans are doing just that rather than working,......ie so the jobless rate drops. Do you REALLY think that is a benefit to society? The job participation rate is at a 40 plus year low, it is even worse for women and minorities, food stamps, welfare and all the other entitlements have historical high usage, both in numbers and percentage of population. Is that REALLY progress in the mind of a progressive grubercrat?
    Gratuitous Grubering! Shots for everyone!


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    This issue has been plowed more times than Paris Hilton.
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    Too bad we have to observe human rights.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post


    He had no hand in the much improved U.S. economy, but unilaterally increased the number of people receiving "welfare"! Reconstructing reality to reinforce one's belief system must be a drain. Why not try and think for yourself?
    You're the one drinking the administration kool-aid.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    You're the one drinking the administration kool-aid.
    What can i say, he was a one term marxist dictator!

    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by WallStreetVixen View Post
    No it isn't, but that's exactly why I'm not wrong.

    What sector that isn't part of goods producing that has lower GDP output than leisure and hospitality?

    from YOUR link, that would be construction.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Just that yours was nonsense, but I take it you figured that out.
    I am sure you are totally correct with whatever it is you are on about.
    I may be wrong.

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