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Thread: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

  1. #131
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    1) The unemployment rate is very close to full employment. BNP Paribas is already saying we're there: BNP Paribas declares full employment - Business Insider

    2) The trends are ALL POSITIVE. Job growth is steady, unemployment rate is falling, LFPR is flat.
    They're all trends. I wouldn't go as go as far as to say they're all positive. For example, you cannot have job growth without wage growth, which have been non-existent in this recovery. Average hourly earnings refuses to break the 2.2% threshold, which is a big indicator of the types of jobs that are being created in the economy.

    Unemployment is falling due to people leaving the labor force. While people may claim this is due to baby boomers retiring, there is very little evidence of this happening. Last month, the labour force shrank by 178,000 workers. There were 300K + people who moved from unemployed to not in labour force, according to labor force status flows, while only 228K moved from employed to out of labour force. The job gains do not seem to be doing much to increase labor market participation, mostly due to the rapid increase in multiple job holders.

    1 month ≠ trend, and the trend is positive -- it's dropped almost 15% since 2010.

    Plus, good news! People who dropped out of the workforce are, apparently, starting to rejoin the workforce:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/07/bu...t-figures.html
    People join and leave the labour force every month. Far to sporadic to be considered a consistent trend of anything substantial happening. You have one month where 1.5K workers enter the labour force. That probably offsets the -760K who left the labour force months later. Every month, since this recovery, the labor force offsets. A true trend of increasing labour market participation would have more consistency.



    Job benefits mostly expired for many people last year, and are continuing to expire this year. Ironically, many conservatives claim this is has contributed to the drop in unemployment rates.
    The expiration of job benefits are contributing to this rapid growth in employment. This is a good and a bad thing. Its good because employment is growing. It's bad because:

    1) It's squeezing productivity, and this productivity squeeze is not going to be allowed to continue at the expense of corporate America who needs high earnings to justify the multiples their getting in the stock market.
    2) The lack of job openings in high wage sectors forces individuals to seek employment at the highest possible wages they could find. Despite the fact that employment increases on an average of 265,000 a month, average hourly earnings only increases 0.1% - 0.3% a month.

    A drop in the LFPR by 0.1% is negligible, especially since the trend (there's that word again!) is flat since mid-2013.
    It's really not a good thing that this trend is flat.

    That's the most bizarre twisting of statistics I've seen in a long time. Congratulations!

    Anyway. U3 is only one measure, and no one claims it's a complete measure. The Yellen Dashboard is more comprehensive, at the cost of being more complex:
    Yellen's Dashboard

    Quits rate, job openings, hiring are trending up; change in participation rate is largely flat, maybe a tiny bit up since 12/2009; U3, U6, involuntary part timers, long-term unemployed are trending down. The only real issue is that wages are flat, and that might not be the case for long if we are genuinely near or at full employment.

    If you're looking at the numbers rationally, rather than responding emotionally or in a partisan fashion, you'll see that it's a very good monthly report, and that things are looking up.
    That's not complex. Complex is if you actually referenced the Beveridge curve.



    The last time the unemployment rate was this low and we've had this many job openings was in near 2000. However, the unemployment rate was in the low 4s. If anyone who wanted a job took a job yesterday, the unemployment rate would be around that level. Instead, workers are forgoing jobs that doesn't match their particular needs. Looking at the Beveridge curve shows a greater market inefficiency, possibly a case of structural unemployment.
    Last edited by WallStreetVixen; 03-06-15 at 08:19 PM.

  2. #132
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    because the person is still unemployed and who knows the reason.

    if everyone left the work force we could have an unemployement rate of 0% based on U3 calculations you should be jumping for joy there are no unemployed people in the US.
    it is a BS number.

    cool I have 100k people find a job ol wait I had 175k people stop looking for work for X,Y reason *cheers the unemployment rate dropped*
    that is not a good sign at all. in fact it is a bad sign.

    it didn't drop because people found more work it dropped because people quit looking for work.
    that is why you need to look at the U5 and U6 numbers not U3.

    what part of this don't you understand. U3 is a joke and everyone knows it.
    It's not a joke, but it certainly hasn't mattered to anyone in a long time. Especially not by the Federal Reserve, who all but ejected their 6.5% benchmark for rate hikes, when even they understood that the underlying problems with the economy were far deeper than the unemployment rate.

    You have inflation, PCE, average hourly earnings, etc etc. If the labour market merely depended on the unemployment rate, the Fed wouldn't believe the economy still needed to be propped up with low interest rates.

  3. #133
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    If 295,000 more people are employed, that's a victory. It's a pretty strong number in any economy, and far more new jobs than were produced on average during the Reagan years.

    But keep looking for creative ways to bash our economy, I am sure that will make things better.
    This isn't the same economy as Reagan, or Bush, or Clinton, or pretty much any other president. All that seems to be occurring is the replacement of the high paying jobs of the past with the low paying jobs of today. Most people are grateful for the results that is fine, unless you've succumbed to a painful cabaret of significantly low standards, it's really not fine.

    Oh, and the economy created 66,000 leisure and hospitality jobs last month. Happy recovery...

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    Where's your source?

    LFPR measure only those between the ages of 16 to 64 and excludes students, homemakers, and persons under the age of 64 who are retired as well. So try again.
    Where's your source? The Population used is the Adult Civilian Non-institutional Population: everyone in the United States who is 16 or older, not in the military, prison, or an institution. The labor force are those who are either employed or Unee (looking for work).
    So the Labor Force Participation Rate is the percent of the population who are either working or looking for work. The rest are those neither working nor trying to work.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  5. #135
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    Where's your source?

    LFPR measure only those between the ages of 16 to 64 and excludes students, homemakers, and persons under the age of 64 who are retired as well. So try again.

    Nope. You are incorrect about all of that. Look it up. I shouldn't have to do your homework for you.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    the U3 number is a political pawn game to make it sound better than what it really is.
    To make what sound better than what? The U3 is the percent of the labor force not working. The U5 and U6 measure different things (the percent of the labor force and the marginally attached who aren't working and the percent of the labor force a nd marginally attached who are not working or are working part time for economic reasons)

    the U5 and U6 numbers give a better representation of the workforce.
    How do you figure when they include people not in the Labor Force?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  7. #137
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Declan View Post
    Can't force people to work.
    you can if you dry up government handouts to those who can



  8. #138
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by WallStreetVixen View Post
    ...it's really not fine.

    Oh, and the economy created 66,000 leisure and hospitality jobs last month. Happy recovery...
    What's wrong with leisure and hospitality jobs being created? Seems to me that if Americans are enjoying more leisure and hospitality, that shows an increase in our standard of living. Now if we had LOST those leisure and hospitality jobs, I would be very alarmed.

    And it's only natural that jobs are created in whatever sector needs more workers. What else would you expect?
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  9. #139
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Where's your source? ...
    tea party fantasyland has different metrics than the rest of us use.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  10. #140
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    Re: Payrolls Climb More Than Forecast, U.S. Jobless Rate at 5.5%

    +295,000 jobs. At that rate, all the permanent jobs that Keystone XL would have created would be made up in...wait for it...less than ten minutes.

    But those would have been medium-high-paying jobs? Alright, twenty minutes. Thirty if I'm feeling generous.
    "A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons." --Hillary Rodham Clinton
    "Innocent until proven guilty is for criminal convictions, not elections." --Mitt Romney

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