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Thread: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    You mean to say that you think EU countries will drive Putin out of Crimea!!!!!!????? If I were Putin lol. I support Putin's long standing opposition to NATO expansion. He has laid down his line. It's laughable that people think Putin is on some crusade, that Europe is threatened, the foolish comparisons to him and hitler, current events and the late 1930's, all bs. Putin has been giving speeches about his position on NATO expansion for years now. When do Westerners listen to what other leaders want? Those that have, like the senior fellow at CFR, John J. Mearsheimer have, and understand this quite well. But in ignorance and belligerence, most will advance a false narrative that could lead to unintended consequences.
    Oh no, Monte. I think the opposite will happen. I believe the EU will go along with Putin on Crimea - the Crimeans did vote to go back under the Russian umbrella, after all - so that's not an issue, IMO. What I meant was the EU countries will try to find a way to encourage the Ukraine to allow a "land bridge" through their country so Russia can get to their Crimean seaport - maybe a forgiveness of some of the billions of debt they owe for the oil and gas Russia has provided over the years? Most of the Ukrainean people do speak the Russian language so it's not like a totally new foreign country is involved, and the Ukraine was always a part of the Russian empire until Khruschev gave them autonomy. I don't know how all this will play out, but that's my thoughts today - subject to change, of course.

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Oh no, Monte. I think the opposite will happen. I believe the EU will go along with Putin on Crimea - the Crimeans did vote to go back under the Russian umbrella, after all - so that's not an issue, IMO.
    As I believe I explained to you in a different thread, the only legal way Crimea could be returned to Russia is if *all* Ukrainians voted in a referendum to do so. The Crimean peninsula legally belongs to all of the 46 million Ukrainian people, not just the 2 million who happen to live there. How can a mere 4% of citizens decide the fate of land that belongs to 100% of the citizens?

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    What I meant was the EU countries will try to find a way to encourage the Ukraine to allow a "land bridge" through their country so Russia can get to their Crimean seaport - maybe a forgiveness of some of the billions of debt they owe for the oil and gas Russia has provided over the years?
    A) If the Russians had not taken Crimea by force in 2014 then, B) they would not now need a land bridge to Crimea in 2015 ... B does not naturally nor legally follow A.

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Most of the Ukrainean people do speak the Russian language...
    Although most Ukrainian people 'can' speak the Russian language to various degree, Ukrainian is still the predominant (65%) national language.

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    ...so it's not like a totally new foreign country is involved, and the Ukraine was always a part of the Russian empire until Khruschev gave them autonomy.
    Khrushchev didn't give Ukraine autonomy. By decree of the Supreme Soviet, he gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Ukraine became an independent nation with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. All of the former SSR republics and the Baltic States became independent nations when Mikhail Gorbachev signed the papers dissolving the USSR on 25 December 1991. At this time, all parties agreed that Crimea was legally a part of Ukraine.

    On 26 December 1991, the Russian Federation was born as a new nation, and so was Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Lithuania, Turkmenistan, Latvia, and Estonia.


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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    It's not up to Putin to decide what is best for another nation. If he wants that power, then let him run for political office in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, etc.
    Indeed. As article 2 of the UN charter clearly states.

    "All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations"

    https://treaties.un.org/doc/publicat.../uncharter.pdf

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    As I believe I explained to you in a different thread, the only legal way Crimea could be returned to Russia is if *all* Ukrainians voted in a referendum to do so. The Crimean peninsula legally belongs to all of the 46 million Ukrainian people, not just the 2 million who happen to live there. How can a mere 4% of citizens decide the fate of land that belongs to 100% of the citizens?


    A) If the Russians had not taken Crimea by force in 2014 then, B) they would not now need a land bridge to Crimea in 2015 ... B does not naturally nor legally follow A.


    Although most Ukrainian people 'can' speak the Russian language to various degree, Ukrainian is still the predominant (65%) national language.


    Khrushchev didn't give Ukraine autonomy. By decree of the Supreme Soviet, he gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Ukraine became an independent nation with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. All of the former SSR republics and the Baltic States became independent nations when Mikhail Gorbachev signed the papers dissolving the USSR on 25 December 1991. At this time, all parties agreed that Crimea was legally a part of Ukraine.

    On 26 December 1991, the Russian Federation was born as a new nation, and so was Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Lithuania, Turkmenistan, Latvia, and Estonia.
    Good morning, Simplexity.

    I always look forward to reading your posts!

    Do you have what might be a workable solution to this problem? Is Putin "testing the waters," so to speak? Honestly, I'm about ready to make a dartboard at this point, and let the Fates decide the outcome of not only this, but every other foreign problem we seem to have gotten involved in! I'm not an isolationist, but we do have sufficient domestic problems to handle to keep us occupied for a long time! Getting our grid and other infrastructure repaired/updated/ - whatever word you want to use, would be a priority for me. It would provide jobs, and benefit all of us in the long run. We're spending money all over the world to help beleaguered people, and that's noble, but when does our country get added to the "to-do" list?

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Luftwaffe View Post
    The mission being overseen by the CIA means nothing, at the end of the day, the SEALS were the ones who carried out the entire mission, and they did so successfully.
    Actually, it means a great deal. Intelligence apparatus (CIA, MI6, BND, you name it) stick with their tier one forces on those kinds of operations. Rarely do they shop a tier one mission out. CIA and ST6 are buddy buddy and have been for years. Basically longer then you've been alive. Lot of ex-SEALs in SAD (Special Activities Division) and Camp Peary and Harvey Point are facilities they both use (Camp Peary and Harvey Point) are just down the road from Little Creek so it was given it would go to ST6. Harvey Point is where they trained for the OP. Also SEALs were designated the northeastern provinces on the border with Pakistan, meaning that was their AO and it would have taken CIA or JSOC commander to override that and that wasn't gonna happen as I explained before.. McRaven is a SEAL guy and CIA love them to death.

    CAG (Delta), 75th, SF, or even MarSoc could have been tapped with that mission if needed and done it. It was a cookie cutter operation that every one of those units do in training all the time. Remember that mission was barely successful and the pucker factor was quiet high. So in that Operation.. ST6 killed Bin Laden, got some intel.. but failed to completely destroy a stealth Blackhawk.. I am sure those operators from ST6 wouldn't call it a success all around as they let stealth tech get into the hands of Pakistan who probably allowed a few countries have a look see.

    Quote Originally Posted by Luftwaffe View Post
    You really are ignorant as to how to judge a unit.
    Coming from a kid, I'll take that as a compliment. Btw.. you said Special Operations forces use the SCAR-L/H and they are just glorified infantry.. well SEALs (include ST6) aren't infantry and why they usually have the 75th go with them in QRF form or joint operations.

    Weapon wise.. Special Operations get their pick of the litter so to speak. Delta Force is using the H&K416/417 as that's their baby (went to H&K to design it). Special Operations in general tossed SCAR systems a few years back after SEALs and Rangers found issues with it. It's still in the inventory but not highly used. Most are using M4A1 with conversion kits from H&K that gives the ability of the H&K416. Fact is they are using a weapon system that Marines have (M27). Fact is the weapon that killed Bin Laden was an H&K416.
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Good morning, Simplexity.
    Good Morning polgara

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    I always look forward to reading your posts!
    Thank you kindly. I have lived extensively in both Crimea and mainland Ukraine. I speak both languages (Ukrainian/Russian) well enough to get along. I am very familiar with Ukraine, so if you have any questions just ask.

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Do you have what might be a workable solution to this problem?
    Crimea is lost. Not legally, but via force applied by a neighbor with nuclear weapons and a far superior military. The international community should continue to isolate Crimea and maintain sanctions against Russia until either Crimea is returned to its rightful owner or an agreed-to compensation is paid by the Russian Federation for Ukraine's territorial loss.

    Donbass is problematic. Although the majority of people in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions speak Russian as their first language, 'ethnic Russians' are a minority. What you have then, is a situation where ethnic Russians are trying to militarily impose their will on all Russian speakers in these regions, even though the ethnic majority are Ukrainian. In addition, the border here is open, so Russia can freely supply the rebels with manpower and armaments at will. IMHO, unless Putin abandons his ambition of creating a land-bridge to Crimea, a peaceful and comprehensive settlement is impossible. It is also impossible unless the rebels abandon their stated ambition of creating a modern 'Novorossiya'. The original Novorossiya (New Russia-17641873) was territory in present day Ukraine that was administered by Governor-General Grigory Potemkin on behalf of Czarina Catherine the Great. The image below denotes the modern Novorossiya that is a rebel goal. This includes all land up to the Dneiper River and the entire Sea of Azov/Black Sea coastline of Ukraine. The map below could very well be the result if Ukraine did not confront the rebel/Russian forces.



    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Is Putin "testing the waters," so to speak?
    Definitely. Georgia was the first test in 2008. Today it is Ukraine. If this test is not rebuffed, yet another will follow. I would wager either Moldova, Latvia, or Estonia.

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Honestly, I'm about ready to make a dartboard at this point, and let the Fates decide the outcome of not only this, but every other foreign problem we seem to have gotten involved in! I'm not an isolationist, but we do have sufficient domestic problems to handle to keep us occupied for a long time! Getting our grid and other infrastructure repaired/updated/ - whatever word you want to use, would be a priority for me. It would provide jobs, and benefit all of us in the long run. We're spending money all over the world to help beleaguered people, and that's noble, but when does our country get added to the "to-do" list?
    I realize and appreciate your concerns. But aggression left unchecked yields more aggression and eventually far greater costs by kicking the can down the road. As is obvious, Obama's 'Russian reset' policy of 2009 is an abject failure. Without a determined reorientation, Putin will continue to test our resolve at every opportunity with ever-increasing costs.


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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Good Morning polgara


    Thank you kindly. I have lived extensively in both Crimea and mainland Ukraine. I speak both languages (Ukrainian/Russian) well enough to get along. I am very familiar with Ukraine, so if you have any questions just ask.


    Crimea is lost. Not legally, but via force applied by a neighbor with nuclear weapons and a far superior military. The international community should continue to isolate Crimea and maintain sanctions against Russia until either Crimea is returned to its rightful owner or an agreed-to compensation is paid by the Russian Federation for Ukraine's territorial loss.

    Donbass is problematic. Although the majority of people in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions speak Russian as their first language, 'ethnic Russians' are a minority. What you have then, is a situation where ethnic Russians are trying to militarily impose their will on all Russian speakers in these regions, even though the ethnic majority are Ukrainian. In addition, the border here is open, so Russia can freely supply the rebels with manpower and armaments at will. IMHO, unless Putin abandons his ambition of creating a land-bridge to Crimea, a peaceful and comprehensive settlement is impossible. It is also impossible unless the rebels abandon their stated ambition of creating a modern 'Novorossiya'. The original Novorossiya (New Russia-17641873) was territory in present day Ukraine that was administered by Governor-General Grigory Potemkin on behalf of Czarina Catherine the Great. The image below denotes the modern Novorossiya that is a rebel goal. This includes all land up to the Dneiper River and the entire Sea of Azov/Black Sea coastline of Ukraine. The map below could very well be the result if Ukraine did not confront the rebel/Russian forces.




    Definitely. Georgia was the first test in 2008. Today it is Ukraine. If this test is not rebuffed, yet another will follow. I would wager either Moldova, Latvia, or Estonia.


    I realize and appreciate your concerns. But aggression left unchecked yields more aggression and eventually far greater costs by kicking the can down the road. As is obvious, Obama's 'Russian reset' policy of 2009 is an abject failure. Without a determined reorientation, Putin will continue to test our resolve at every opportunity with ever-increasing costs.
    Thank you for a most excellent explanation and map! Putin still feels he needs the Crimean seaport, though, so that hasn't changed. However, if I'm reading the map correctly, the Ukraine will have no access to the Black Sea if the rebels succeed in their goal to make a "New Russia." Since the Ukraine is largely farmland, and probably serves as the breadbasket for the region, and since the rebels seem to be aligned more with Russia than Kiev, what is the Ukrainian government to do? They have little choice but to negotiate to keep what's theirs, and I think the world agrees with them. Putin is not a careless man in planning his chess moves, so what's next?!

    Further, since the rebels didn't honor the cease-fire they agreed to, there's a big lack of trust to overcome to begin with. It will be interesting to see what solution is found.

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Thank you for a most excellent explanation and map! Putin still feels he needs the Crimean seaport, though, so that hasn't changed.
    Russia had already leased the port of Sevastopol from Ukraine until at least 2042 so there was little threat there. This lease was a continuation of one agreed to back in 1997

    Kharkiv Pact - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Further, since the rebels didn't honor the cease-fire they agreed to, there's a big lack of trust to overcome to begin with. It will be interesting to see what solution is found.
    Putin uses these bogus cease fires to rearm and resupply his proxies for the next round of the fighting. The Ukrainian forces on the other hand are running out of everything with no commensurate resupply.

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Russia had already leased the port of Sevastopol from Ukraine until at least 2042 so there was little threat there. This lease was a continuation of one agreed to back in 1997

    Kharkiv Pact - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



    Putin uses these bogus cease fires to rearm and resupply his proxies for the next round of the fighting. The Ukrainian forces on the other hand are running out of everything with no commensurate resupply.
    Greetings, flogger.

    I thought that we were considering arming them - is that still on? The EU needs to step up to the plate, too, with something more than rhetoric... like paying for some of the cost. I think that Merkel and company tried to defuse the situation, and I commend that, but when the rebels immediately broke the cease-fire that they had agreed to, we saw that they were neither serious nor honest. What next?

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, flogger.

    I thought that we were considering arming them - is that still on? The EU needs to step up to the plate, too, with something more than rhetoric... like paying for some of the cost. I think that Merkel and company tried to defuse the situation, and I commend that, but when the rebels immediately broke the cease-fire that they had agreed to, we saw that they were neither serious nor honest. What next?
    Hi polgara

    I all honesty even though the US is best placed to arm Ukraine, I'd say for the sake of political expediency it should stay out of it altogether. By all means let the Europeans themselves do the arming. In Russia they demonize the US at every turn so don't give them the excuse to do so some more. The UK and France have quite sophisticated weaponry that would be more than a match for anything Russia can field. Diplomacy is not going to solve this I'm afraid and if we don't become a lot more proactive its the Baltics turn next for the same Russian subversion tactics

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