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Thread: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    hi, polgara. hope that you are well. here is what i found regarding your question :

    Russia in the European energy sector - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Greetings, Helix.

    I am well - totally sick of Winter, but well and I hope you and yours are as well.

    Thanks for the link, which confirms a hunch I had. It appears that Russia may have another card in their deck that can be used, if necessary, to get access to a "land bridge" through the Ukraine to get to their seaport in the Crimea. I have no idea what can be done about it, since Gazprom is the supplier of fuel to most of the EU countries, but some agreement might have to be reached, IMO. I don't think Putin is ready to play nasty hardball - yet - and I think Merkel and company understand that, but what's the benefit to having a seaport to ship things from if he can't get to it?

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by JANFU View Post
    For now, but new lines of gas supply are opening, including from Israel.
    Greetings, JANFU.

    It appears that Israel is becoming very important to a lot of people, for a lot of different reasons!

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, JANFU.

    It appears that Israel is becoming very important to a lot of people, for a lot of different reasons!
    Huge gas fields, then the Stans want an out route for oil and gas.
    Russia signed a really bad deal with China.
    Russia now plans a pipeline to Turkey.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Hillary is the only defense I or anyone else needs.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Not once have I showed my dick to a woman and she thought it was creepy. In fact, in 100% of the cases, they were pretty excited about it. I don't know who you're showing your **** too.

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, Helix.

    I am well - totally sick of Winter, but well and I hope you and yours are as well.

    Thanks for the link, which confirms a hunch I had. It appears that Russia may have another card in their deck that can be used, if necessary, to get access to a "land bridge" through the Ukraine to get to their seaport in the Crimea. I have no idea what can be done about it, since Gazprom is the supplier of fuel to most of the EU countries, but some agreement might have to be reached, IMO. I don't think Putin is ready to play nasty hardball - yet - and I think Merkel and company understand that, but what's the benefit to having a seaport to ship things from if he can't get to it?
    my guess is that Crimea will be part of Russia.

    as for the weather, i spent a lot of time today shoveling out. at least it earned me a guilt free burger and fries.

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    too many people go to college? i disagree.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/26/bu...lege.html?_r=0

    we don't need to participate in every war in order to send our kids to college.
    In fact, it was a republican president that lamented over how many schools, hospitals and homes that could be built for the useless cost of bombers, and carriers etc.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, Helix.

    I am well - totally sick of Winter, but well and I hope you and yours are as well.

    Thanks for the link, which confirms a hunch I had. It appears that Russia may have another card in their deck that can be used, if necessary, to get access to a "land bridge" through the Ukraine to get to their seaport in the Crimea. I have no idea what can be done about it, since Gazprom is the supplier of fuel to most of the EU countries, but some agreement might have to be reached, IMO. I don't think Putin is ready to play nasty hardball - yet - and I think Merkel and company understand that, but what's the benefit to having a seaport to ship things from if he can't get to it?
    Hi Polgara, I don't think Sevastopol is so much a shipping port as a warm water, and indispensable naval port for Russia. And as such, it will take complete war with Russia to wrest it. And it would appear that we've no shortage of neocons more than willing to pursue such nonsense.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Hi Polgara, I don't think Sevastopol is so much a shipping port as a warm water, and indispensable naval port for Russia. And as such, it will take complete war with Russia to wrest it. And it would appear that we've no shortage of neocons more than willing to pursue such nonsense.
    In the time of the Czars it was under direct imperial rule because of its strategic importance. It did not become part of Ukraine until the 1950's when Krushchev, himself a Ukrainian, presented it as a gift. It's thus not surprising or altogether unreasonable that Russia should want it back, and will probably keep it. If that were the end of it then Crimea would be the price of Ukrainian freedom and everyone would move on. Unfortunately, Putin's goals go far beyond Crimea.
    "It's always reassuring to find you've made the right enemies." -- William J. Donovan

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Hi Polgara, I don't think Sevastopol is so much a shipping port as a warm water, and indispensable naval port for Russia. And as such, it will take complete war with Russia to wrest it. And it would appear that we've no shortage of neocons more than willing to pursue such nonsense.
    Greetings, Montecresto.

    Who knows? I think the EU countries will take a stand, since they are much closer to the problem than we are, and would be directly affected, one way or another. Plus, Putin will not want to look bad before the world, since it's not the Ukraine's fault that their land lies in the way. Think, Monte. What would you do if you were Putin?

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    The ruling and pro-Western Reform Party won the overall general election in Estonia yesterday. The Moscow friendly Centre Party (25% of Estonians are ethnic Russian) placed second, but it will remain a minority bloc. Five of the six political parties who met the 5% vote threshold (weighted membership in parliament) are pro-EU and pro-NATO.


    The war in Ukraine will end where it began ... in Crimea. Putin has no intention of either financially subsidizing or annexing the Ukrainian Donbass rust belt oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk which have been devastated by war. He applies pressure there for three reasons; 1) NATO will not consider for membership any nation that has internal/external border disputes. 2) It is possible that a political settlement (Constitutional changes envisioned the Minsk II Accord) will result in a federalization of Ukraine. As Putin envisions it, such a federalization would grant Donetsk and Luhansk a high degree of regional autonomy, yet retain veto power over any Kyiv pro-Western initiatives. In short, the tail would be wagging the dog. 3) Depriving Ukraine of the Donbass guts Ukraine's industrial base. This in turn significantly degrades Ukraine's ability to internally re-arm its military to combat Russian aggression.

    Putin's main strategic objective remains a "land bridge" from Russia proper to Crimea. As it is now, Crimea can only be supplied via air or via barges and ferry boats at the Kerch isthmus. Militarily speaking, Crimea is analogous to a giant aircraft carrier almost centrally located in the Black Sea. From this vantage point, Russia can blanket the entire Black Sea (including Turkey's Bosporus Straits choke-point) with anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles. Economically speaking, stealing Crimea from Ukraine provides Russia with the maritime rights to significant offshore natural gas deposits ... a huge plus for Putin and a huge minus for a Ukraine already deprived of its industrial base in the Donbass.

    Putin has a decision to make. Acquiring his land-bridge to Crimea necessitates taking the Ukrainian city of Mariupol (500,000) on the Sea of Azov. At the time of the Minsk II ceasefire agreement on 14 February 2015, rebel forces were less than 30 miles east of Mariupol. But Mariupol is clearly on the government side of the ceasefire line. Western nations have collectively and publicly identified Mariupol as a red-line. To take Mariupol, Putin would have to indisputably break the Minsk II Accord which he himself negotiated and agreed to honor. The blow-back if he should decide to renege on this agreement is significant. Much harsher economic sanctions would be imposed on Russia and many Western nations would begin to arm Ukraine with lethal weapons.

    This is where the situation stands at this time. How this plays out mostly depends on what Putin is willing to gamble and sacrifice.


    Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet. -- Marine General James 'Chaos' Mattis

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    Re: US, NATO Troops Parade Near Russian Border in Estonia

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    Never said it's justified.

    I just said it's expected.

    And if you don't want it to happen, don't tease Ukraine with a possibility of joining the EU or NATO.
    Who's teasing ? A country has first to request membership of these organisations they don't get it forced upon them . And anyway how does Ukrainian EU membership (which was the only thing under negotiation) threaten anyone ?
    Last edited by flogger; 03-02-15 at 06:11 AM.

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