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Thread: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

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    Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Reuters
    Thu Feb 12, 2015

    The leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine have agreed a deal to end fighting in eastern Ukraine, participants at the summit talks said on Thursday. The deal reached after all-night negotiations in the Belarussian capital Minsk included a ceasefire that would come into effect on Feb. 15, followed by the withdrawal of heavy weapons. "We have managed to agree on the main issues," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. The four leaders had committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to a joint declaration distributed by the Kremlin.
    Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

    It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.


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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



    Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

    It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.
    How many times have they had a Ceasefire now?

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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Hamster Buddha View Post
    How many times have they had a Ceasefire now?
    The original ceasefire was signed in Minsk on 5 September 2014. An additional memorandum was signed on 19 September 2014.


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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    The original ceasefire was signed in Minsk on 5 September 2014. An additional memorandum was signed on 19 September 2014.
    There's only been one? I'm actually surprised to be honest. Regardless, all I suppose I can say for now is that I'm glad the US wasn't involved in the agreement as perhaps finally we can put all this BS about this being a US led program or some crap out of the way.

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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    I doubt this ceasefire means all that much, given the recent history on the matter.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



    Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

    It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.
    Russia just needs a little ceasefire so that it can deliver more weapons to the rebels as safely as possible
    -----MOS 19D = cavalry scout = best damn MOS there is

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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Quote Originally Posted by Simpleχity View Post
    Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



    Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

    It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.
    By the time we can analyse it, we will have seen, if it works. On the face of it, Putin seems to have received only the pass on new sanctions for the moment. I have not seen mention of Crimea.

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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Obviously it remains to be seen if this accord Will hold and Merkel and Hollande are Right to remain cautious. But it was probably the best deal to be had Right now for the limited purpose of preventing further direct escalation.
    The cease fire only takes effect on 15 february so it remains to be seen whether the rebels Will use this window of opportunity to eliminate the Debeltsovo pocket. In any event the cease fire clearly starts from the lines As they Will be on 15 february which represents a Major gaan for the rebels on the original Minsk lines. This Will be hard to swallow in Kiev.
    Putin and the rebels are forces to once again acknowledge the territorial integrity of the Ukraine although this is clearly not implied to mean a retrocession of Crimea and Sevastopol. In effect this agreement again confirms - Albeit Silently - that these regions are gone.
    In compensation for their acknowledgement of Ukranian sovereignty the rebels get the promise of a special status and de facto self-rule, although it is yet to be determined how far this Will go ( and will it also Apply to other party of Ukraine)?
    Putin gets an open border with the rebels until the end of the year which means he can keep them in business and maybe strengthen them in the meantime. He Will be hoping that in the meantime new divisions Will open up in Kiev and that things will come unstuck there. Kiev is obviously hoping the reverse, that they Will be able to stabilize themselves and grow stronger and thus become more attractive to people in the East. Remains to be seen.
    If the cease fire holds exchanges of prisoners Will probably run smoothly. But I am much more doubtful about either Side fully honoring the terms regarding heavy weaponry.

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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    It initially seems to me that each side scored "wins", but on balance I think the rebels (and Putin) got the better of the deal here as Poroshenko was negotiating with a weak hand, and he was probably pressed by Merkel and Hollande to accede on the premise that it is either this deal or no deal at all.

    Commencement of the ceasefire is explicit, but the lines of withdrawal for heavy weapons is a bit confusing as one line is attributed for government forces while a different line is attributed for rebel forces.

    Although the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will remain a sovereign part of Ukraine, their increased constitutional autonomy is a win for Putin.


    In my estimation, the most difficult days are on the near horizon.

    Poroshenko must convince Ukraine's politicians and citizens to accept Minsk II. This will *not be* easy. Even more daunting, he must convince the commanders of government volunteer-brigades in the east to cease all hostilities.

    The rebel leaders, who have long insisted on nothing less that total independence, will now have to convince their forces to accept Ukrainian sovereignty. This also, *will not* be easy.

    All of the major players have signed-on. Ukraine, Russia, and the rebels. Quite frankly however, I will be astonished if Minsk II plays out according to the particulars of the document.


    Another item that I wish to comment on at this time is Point 6. of the Minsk II document:

    6. Ensure that the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of "all for all". This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the challenge.
    The "challenge" referred to above is the withdrawal of heavy weapons as delineated in the document. "All for all" to my mind is all-inclusive. This implies that Russia is obligated to release Ukrainian POW Lieutenant Nadezhda Savchenko who was captured by the rebels in late June of 2014 and then conveyed to Russia in early July of 2014 and has been held in Russian custody ever since. Russia claims she was complicit in a war crime. If this is so however, Lieutenant Savchenko should be transferred to the International Criminal Court Tribunal in the Hague and prosecuted in an impartial venue. To date, Russia has refused all appeals to release/transfer this POW.


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    Re: Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

    Let's see how long it takes for the Russian-backed terrorists to break this one.

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