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Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

Rogue Valley

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Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

Reuters
Thu Feb 12, 2015

The leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine have agreed a deal to end fighting in eastern Ukraine, participants at the summit talks said on Thursday. The deal reached after all-night negotiations in the Belarussian capital Minsk included a ceasefire that would come into effect on Feb. 15, followed by the withdrawal of heavy weapons. "We have managed to agree on the main issues," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. The four leaders had committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to a joint declaration distributed by the Kremlin.

Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.
 
Simpleχity;1064304123 said:
Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.

How many times have they had a Ceasefire now?
 
How many times have they had a Ceasefire now?
The original ceasefire was signed in Minsk on 5 September 2014. An additional memorandum was signed on 19 September 2014.
 
Simpleχity;1064304174 said:
The original ceasefire was signed in Minsk on 5 September 2014. An additional memorandum was signed on 19 September 2014.

There's only been one? I'm actually surprised to be honest. Regardless, all I suppose I can say for now is that I'm glad the US wasn't involved in the agreement as perhaps finally we can put all this BS about this being a US led program or some crap out of the way.
 
I doubt this ceasefire means all that much, given the recent history on the matter.
 
Simpleχity;1064304123 said:
Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.

Russia just needs a little ceasefire so that it can deliver more weapons to the rebels as safely as possible ;)
 
Simpleχity;1064304123 said:
Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.

By the time we can analyse it, we will have seen, if it works. On the face of it, Putin seems to have received only the pass on new sanctions for the moment. I have not seen mention of Crimea.
 
Obviously it remains to be seen if this accord Will hold and Merkel and Hollande are Right to remain cautious. But it was probably the best deal to be had Right now for the limited purpose of preventing further direct escalation.
The cease fire only takes effect on 15 february so it remains to be seen whether the rebels Will use this window of opportunity to eliminate the Debeltsovo pocket. In any event the cease fire clearly starts from the lines As they Will be on 15 february which represents a Major gaan for the rebels on the original Minsk lines. This Will be hard to swallow in Kiev.
Putin and the rebels are forces to once again acknowledge the territorial integrity of the Ukraine although this is clearly not implied to mean a retrocession of Crimea and Sevastopol. In effect this agreement again confirms - Albeit Silently - that these regions are gone.
In compensation for their acknowledgement of Ukranian sovereignty the rebels get the promise of a special status and de facto self-rule, although it is yet to be determined how far this Will go ( and will it also Apply to other party of Ukraine)?
Putin gets an open border with the rebels until the end of the year which means he can keep them in business and maybe strengthen them in the meantime. He Will be hoping that in the meantime new divisions Will open up in Kiev and that things will come unstuck there. Kiev is obviously hoping the reverse, that they Will be able to stabilize themselves and grow stronger and thus become more attractive to people in the East. Remains to be seen.
If the cease fire holds exchanges of prisoners Will probably run smoothly. But I am much more doubtful about either Side fully honoring the terms regarding heavy weaponry.
 
It initially seems to me that each side scored "wins", but on balance I think the rebels (and Putin) got the better of the deal here as Poroshenko was negotiating with a weak hand, and he was probably pressed by Merkel and Hollande to accede on the premise that it is either this deal or no deal at all.

Commencement of the ceasefire is explicit, but the lines of withdrawal for heavy weapons is a bit confusing as one line is attributed for government forces while a different line is attributed for rebel forces.

Although the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will remain a sovereign part of Ukraine, their increased constitutional autonomy is a win for Putin.


In my estimation, the most difficult days are on the near horizon.

Poroshenko must convince Ukraine's politicians and citizens to accept Minsk II. This will *not be* easy. Even more daunting, he must convince the commanders of government volunteer-brigades in the east to cease all hostilities.

The rebel leaders, who have long insisted on nothing less that total independence, will now have to convince their forces to accept Ukrainian sovereignty. This also, *will not* be easy.

All of the major players have signed-on. Ukraine, Russia, and the rebels. Quite frankly however, I will be astonished if Minsk II plays out according to the particulars of the document.


Another item that I wish to comment on at this time is Point 6. of the Minsk II document:

6. Ensure that the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of "all for all". This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the challenge.

The "challenge" referred to above is the withdrawal of heavy weapons as delineated in the document. "All for all" to my mind is all-inclusive. This implies that Russia is obligated to release Ukrainian POW Lieutenant Nadezhda Savchenko who was captured by the rebels in late June of 2014 and then conveyed to Russia in early July of 2014 and has been held in Russian custody ever since. Russia claims she was complicit in a war crime. If this is so however, Lieutenant Savchenko should be transferred to the International Criminal Court Tribunal in the Hague and prosecuted in an impartial venue. To date, Russia has refused all appeals to release/transfer this POW.
 
Let's see how long it takes for the Russian-backed terrorists to break this one.
 
Simpleχity;1064304123 said:
Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.

Well whatever it was, little point in checking your link to see what the Kremlin says. Everybody knows they always lie, so we'll have to wait for the WH to get the full true story.
 
I doubt this ceasefire means all that much, given the recent history on the matter.

Anyway, even if honoured, it just means that the two sides stop shooting at one another. There's still the matter that the separatists want autonomy, and Kiev is unwilling to allow it. There really is little hope that anything is over.
 
Let's see how long it takes for the Russian-backed terrorists to break this one.

Exactly, totally. Because we all know that the Ukrainians, a morally superior people would never be the ones to break the agreement. And if they do, and the EU/US say that it was the separatists that broke the agreement, that's what will be official.
 
Simpleχity;1064304123 said:
Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit

Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.


Putin cannot allow this to last or to let peace ensue. The whole raison d'etre of his strategy is to keep Ukraine destabilised as a whole and mired in this conflict ad infinitum. A stable Ukraine thats at peace would be free to go its own way politically and make choices at odds with the wishes of the Kremlin. That cannot be allowed to happen. Obviously Russia cannot initiate a full scale invasion of the whole country given the political consequences of such a move so the present strategy represents the least worst alternative for Putin
 
Regardless, all I suppose I can say for now is that I'm glad the US wasn't involved in the agreement as perhaps finally we can put all this BS about this being a US led program or some crap out of the way.

Since we don't have anything to do with you are saying that there is no need for the U.S. to supply Ukraine with weapons. Good.
 
Since we don't have anything to do with you are saying that there is no need for the U.S. to supply Ukraine with weapons. Good.

If this was just a conflict between Ukrainians, then I'd says yes. Unfortunately, the moment the Russians stuck their nose into it, we have to respond with support. However, just because we support them, doesn't mean we should also be dictating how it plays out in the end. There's a difference you see?
 
By the time we can analyse it, we will have seen, if it works. On the face of it, Putin seems to have received only the pass on new sanctions for the moment. I have not seen mention of Crimea.

Sanctions will remain in force for as long as Russia illegally occupies sovereign Ukrainian territory, besides if Russia made ending the sanctions a condition of the ceasefire it will just prove once and for all that it is Russia who is behind the terrorism in Eastern Ukraine.
 
Well whatever it was, little point in checking your link to see what the Kremlin says. Everybody knows they always lie, so we'll have to wait for the WH to get the full true story.

Yes the fascists in the Kremlin and their ministry of propaganda known as RT are proven to have lied about every major issue regarding this conflict from the start, glad you are starting to get the picture.
 
Sanctions will remain in force for as long as Russia illegally occupies sovereign Ukrainian territory, besides if Russia made ending the sanctions a condition of the ceasefire it will just prove once and for all that it is Russia who is behind the terrorism in Eastern Ukraine.

Now that I have been able to read the documents and seen who signed where and seen that the new eu sanctions will be implemented you might be right, though I don't at all know that the situation is very clear.
 
Simpleχity;1064304123 said:
Ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine after Minsk summit



Details were not yet available from MSN sources, but more info is provided by the official Kremlin website here

It is going to take me a few days to analyse/digest what exactly has been agreed to at Minsk before I can offer a more comprehensive commentary.

If it's going to take you a few days, then you will probably miss it altogether. If recent history is any guide, this will be broken by Sunday morning. The problem being that the terms are unacceptable to both sides.
 
If this was just a conflict between Ukrainians, then I'd says yes. Unfortunately, the moment the Russians stuck their nose into it, we have to respond with support. However, just because we support them, doesn't mean we should also be dictating how it plays out in the end. There's a difference you see?

I could use your rhetoric tool and say that your post is stupid but it would be counterproductive. Instead I will say that what you have ignored is this

2013-12-11t100513z_430869593_lr1e9cb0s.jpg


and these statements by the Assistant Secretary of State pictured above.

“Since the declaration of Ukrainian independence in 1991, the United States supported the Ukrainians in the development of democratic institutions and skills in promoting civil society and a good form of government - all that is necessary to achieve the objectives of Ukraine’s European. We have invested more than 5 billion dollars to help Ukraine to achieve these and other goals. ”

What is really going on in Ukraine is a struggle between the United States and Russia over influence in Europe. As such BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA HAVE THERE NOSES STUCK INTO THE AFFAIRS OF UKRAINE. Therefore it is certain that the U.S. will indeed try to influence how this plays out in the end, because how it plays out in the end will determine the amount of influence that Russia has in the world relative to the U.S.
 
I could use your rhetoric tool and say that your post is stupid but it would be counterproductive. Instead I will say that what you have ignored is this

2013-12-11t100513z_430869593_lr1e9cb0s.jpg


and these statements by the Assistant Secretary of State pictured above.

What is really going on in Ukraine is a struggle between the United States and Russia over influence in Europe. As such BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA HAVE THERE NOSES STUCK INTO THE AFFAIRS OF UKRAINE. Therefore it is certain that the U.S. will indeed try to influence how this plays out in the end, because how it plays out in the end will determine the amount of influence that Russia has in the world relative to the U.S.

Well at least you provided the full quote rather than the fascist propaganda of the Kremlin that states that the US funded the Euromaidan protesters with $5 billion, the U.S. has granted aid to the Ukrainian government since they declared independence that included aid to pro-Kremlin administrations; such as, Yanukovych as well, to compare that to the Russian invasion and annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory or funding, arming and training mass murdering Russian terrorists is laughable in the extreme.
 
Anyway, even if honoured, it just means that the two sides stop shooting at one another. There's still the matter that the separatists want autonomy, and Kiev is unwilling to allow it. There really is little hope that anything is over.

That is correct. This issue will not be resolved until Russia's concerns about autonomy for the regions of eastern Ukraine are satisfied. At some point those demands will have to be met. Therefore the parties involved should get it over with and do the needful.
 
Well at least you provided the full quote rather than the fascist propaganda of the Kremlin that states that the US funded the Euromaidan protesters with $5 billion, the U.S. has granted aid to the Ukrainian government since they declared independence that included aid to pro-Kremlin administrations; such as, Yanukovych as well, to compare that to the Russian invasion and annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory or funding, arming and training mass murdering Russian terrorists is laughable in the extreme.

Russia has it's BS propaganda, the U.S. has it's BS propaganda. There is nothing new about that.
 
Simpleχity;1064305275 said:
Another item that I wish to comment on at this time is Point 6. of the Minsk II document:

6. Ensure that the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of "all for all". This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the challenge.

The "challenge" referred to above is the withdrawal of heavy weapons as delineated in the document. "All for all" to my mind is all-inclusive. This implies that Russia is obligated to release Ukrainian POW Lieutenant Nadezhda Savchenko who was captured by the rebels in late June of 2014 and then conveyed to Russia in early July of 2014 and has been held in Russian custody ever since. Russia claims she was complicit in a war crime. If this is so however, Lieutenant Savchenko should be transferred to the International Criminal Court Tribunal in the Hague and prosecuted in an impartial venue. To date, Russia has refused all appeals to release/transfer this POW.

Asked about this, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had this to say...

Xinhuanet
February 13, 2015

Speaking of detained Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko, Peskov said Savchenko's case would be decided by a Russian court, adding "no promises of Savchenko's prompt release were made at the meeting and the degree of her guilt would be determined by court."

The Minsk II ink isn't even dry yet and Russia is still refusing to release this POW.
 
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