- Joined
- Jun 8, 2012
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Unless, Russia's goal is not the siezure of individual oblasts, but bringing Ukriane as a nation back into the Russian sphere as a protectorate. To do this, Russia would not need to ethnically cleanse the other oblasts. Rather, armed groups infiltrate from Donbass into Odessa, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk where they find some degrees of local support. The Ukrainian government gradually loses control over those areas. As more and more areas are lost, a Russian led counter coup occurs in Kiev.
The new Russian installed government then "asks" to join Russia as a federal state. The far western oblasts are not garrisoned (too much trouble). Instead, they are left to "whither on the vine". Meanwhile, Putin sets his sights on Belarus as the next country to federalize.
It basically boils down to this. The Ukraine makes a public committment to not join the EU or NATO at any future date or Russia will continue this campaign until it does. This means of course the Ukrainians essentially signing away its right to self determination, a condition which no government would accept lightly. Given that the west appears do be doing squat and would most rather this whole situation just went away Putin can afford to gamble.
We may all live to regret this one day as there are certain analogies with the ineffectuality of the old League of Nations in the 1930s