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You might want to go look at when the current justices where appointed. Hint: there was little to no positive portrayals in popular media when most where appointed. And not a single one of the presidents who has appointed a current justice ran significantly on SSM. It was also highly unlikely to be a factor in any of their appointments, and certainly not on those who would be considered "swing" votes. So your popular media thing is just silly.
And I do not think any one is claiming the 10th does not apply. It does. So does the 14th. And since the 14th is part of the constitution, guess which takes precedence. Please learn the US Constitution, it is a very important document that I am rather fond of.
The 10th and the 14th are both parts of the Constitution and traditionally what isn't delineated as a province of the Federal Government would be decided by the States.
Now, if you show me where the Constitution gives the Federal Government the authority to define marriage then there's no more discussion necessary.
And for you to suggest that the current USSC Justices view of SSM today couldn't be pretty accurately determined by looking at the Court makeup makes me think you're not serious.
They don't have to have made a ruling on it before to discern such a thing.
They got where they are today because of their experience & rulings in lower Courts and because the POTUS were aware of both.
It's silly to argue otherwise.