Originally Posted by clownboy
Actually that kind of an interesting question.
The court has before it two questions per their own issued writ: (https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=h...615zr_f2q3.pdf)
[indent][indent]"1) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to license a marriage between two people of the same sex?
2) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-state?"
If the SCOTUS rules against Civil Marriage Equality under question #1, there will still be 19 States with legal SSCM. So the second question will come into play. They could rule that discriminating based on gender in the recognition of out of State licenses is unconstitutional while still allowing individual States not to permit SSCM's to be performed inside the State. That results in States that still ban SSCM's having to recognize out of State licenses equally. On the other hand they could rule that States don't have to recognize out of SSCM's performed outside the State based on Congress exercising it's authority under Article IV Section 1.
Then the question becomes what happens to the legal Civil Marriages that the SCOTUS allowed to occur because by not issuing the requested stays, they allowed SSCM's to proceed.
So by the end of June one of two things is going to happen:
1. The SCOTUS rules that States cannot discriminate against same-sex couples, in which case it's basically game-over as there is not the will to amend the United States Constitution (it's already been tried and failed when there was more support then there is now).
2. The SCOTUS rules that States can discriminate against same-sex couples, in which case the issue moves back to the States. Those 19 States that have SSCM because of State action (State Supreme Court, State Legislature, State Ballot Initiative) will retain SSCM. Then the focus will be reversing State bans on a State-by-State basis. One at a time in the coming years.