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Thread: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

  1. #61
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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    There are about 525,000 federal employees in Canada in all categories, including Crown Corporations, like Canada Post, the RCMP, etc.

    In the US, there are about 21 million federal employees in all categories.

    As a percentage of population, that would make the US about 4 times more top heavy with federal employees than Canada. And which country is supposedly the socialisst mecca of North America?
    The U.S. doesn't have 21 mllion federal employees, it has 21 million public sector jobs which includes teachers, police, fire, etc.


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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    The U.S. doesn't have 21 mllion federal employees, it has 21 million public sector jobs which includes teachers, police, fire, etc.
    Thanks Pete - it was cleared up later and I apologized for the mix up on my part.
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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    If you're going to include Canada's Provincial civil servants in numbers attributed to the federal government, which is entirely dishonest, you'd better be including all US State civil servants in your numbers as well.

    And I apologize for the 21 million figure, which I read wrongly, as just federal - it's all civilian government employees.

    The total civilian employees at the federal level in the US is listed as about 2.8 million

    Number of Federal Employees | Number Of | How Many

    If you were to include non-civilian - which I did for Canada, but which I can't find for America, I'm sure the number would be significantly higher and much closer to the percentage here in Canada.

    I'm not sure what you're really trying to say.

    # of Public Sector employees vs # of Public Sector Employees in 2 countries is an apples to apples comparison

    Are you asking about military?
    Total Government Employment Since 1962

    Add them in.

    You're still at just over 10% of your population in public sector jobs

    The US is at significantly under 10% unless I'm missing something.
    Last edited by SlevinKelevra; 02-06-15 at 03:35 PM.

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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    Why do you think the participation rate is less in America?
    From "Is Canada’s Labour Force Participation Rate at its Lowest Level in Over a Decade, and Should We Worry About it?," LCERPA Commentary, August 15, 2014:

    [F]iguring out who wants a job can be a little tricky. Generally, we don’t really want to count someone as unemployed if they say they want a job, but want it so little that they are not interested in making any efforts to find a job.1

    1In Canada, this can be as little as searching the job postings in a newspaper or online. The standard US definition of unemployment requires a job searcher to contact an employer about a position. As a result, Canada’s reported unemployment rate and labour force participation rate would be higher than those reported in the US under the same labour market conditions.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    There are more people living in snowbelt areas of the US than in Canada.
    I think the "percentage of population" logic you use for a public-sector employment comparison might be valid in this case as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    … retired persons, stay-at-home moms, students and disabled. The fact these people do not have to work is a sign of strength in the economy, not weakness.
    Very well said.

    This article notes that analyses of LFPR levels should perhaps be focused more working-age populations: "Debunking The Biggest Myth About The Labour Force Participation Rate," Business In Canada, March 10, 2014

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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    And my point is they are saying that retail - as a % of the workforce- will decrease (albeit by a small amount) by 2022. So in fact they are predicting that more people will be getting the "non"lowpaying jobs
    Actually looking at your chart, under compound annual rate of change, it seems to show that from 2012-2022, retail jobs will go up by .7 percent each year.

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    People getting jobs is problematic. I see. I suppose you are right, our economy would be much better off if they drew unemployment.

    If we all try hard enough to downtalk our economy, who knows, we might be successful in creating another recession before the end of this presidential term. That would ensure a republican victory wouldn't it.
    I never said that people getting jobs were a bad thing. However, we do have to worry if many of the jobs being created are low-paying.
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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by mmi View Post
    From "Is Canada’s Labour Force Participation Rate at its Lowest Level in Over a Decade, and Should We Worry About it?," LCERPA Commentary, August 15, 2014:

    [F]iguring out who wants a job can be a little tricky. Generally, we don’t really want to count someone as unemployed if they say they want a job, but want it so little that they are not interested in making any efforts to find a job.1

    1In Canada, this can be as little as searching the job postings in a newspaper or online. The standard US definition of unemployment requires a job searcher to contact an employer about a position. As a result, Canada’s reported unemployment rate and labour force participation rate would be higher than those reported in the US under the same labour market conditions.



    I think the "percentage of population" logic you use for a public-sector employment comparison might be valid in this case as well.



    Very well said.

    This article notes that analyses of LFPR levels should perhaps be focused more working-age populations: "Debunking The Biggest Myth About The Labour Force Participation Rate," Business In Canada, March 10, 2014
    Excellent, excellent article. I have been looking for something like this that supports my assertion that changes in the labor participation rate is being touted as a bad thing, when its really rather benign (doesn't really mean anything). I found it particularly curious that once again, we have a political party arguing that falling unemployment in Canada isn't what it appears to be because the labor participation rate is falling.... what is really interesting is that this claim is being made by the opposition party (as it is here), but in Canada, the opposition part are the liberals.

    ".....There’s a reoccurring meme that springs up in discussions about the nation’s labour market in general and the participation rate in particular, mainly from the left side of the political spectrum: that we should take the decline in the unemployment rate with a grain of salt because people are giving up their search for work and, as such, are no longer part of the labour force...."

    Touting changes in the labor participation rate (and/or Not in the Work Force number) is a ruse perpetrated as an argument by the side that has NOTHING.

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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by SlevinKelevra View Post
    Public sector employment, wages and salaries, by province and territory (Newfoundland and Labrador)

    Canada has 3.5 Million public sector employees

    The US does not have 21 million FEDERAL employees.
    Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail

    It has 21 million public sector employees though.
    If that's correct, and I have no reason to believe it's not correct, then the public sector employs about 6.67% of the total population in the US, and about 10% in Canada. If the Canadian numbers are "just about right", then the US public sector should immediately hire over ten million employees. At that point, our unemployment rate would be something approaching 0%.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    I never said that people getting jobs were a bad thing. However, we do have to worry if many of the jobs being created are low-paying.
    If "too many" jobs are low paying, then employers will have to start competing harder for workers, and pay rates will increase. I'm really not certain that we can have "too many" jobs in any field. The more the merrier.

    Anyhow, jobs are created in the sectors that have the most demand. That's the natural result of the free market, would you prefer the government decide what industries do the hiring or how much they pay?

    Obviously there is lot's of demand in the retail trade. Not all of those jobs are low paying, many managers make darned good money, the manager of a big box store can make six figures.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    I have been looking for something like this that supports my assertion that changes in the labor participation rate is being touted as a bad thing, when its really rather benign (doesn't really mean anything).
    This article may interest you: "Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate: Mostly Demographics and Long Term Trends," Calculated Risk, Dec 7, 2014.

    I quickly lost interest in this discussion of that analysis, but there may be something useful in it.

    Here's an excerpt from an earlier post:

    LFP has been edging downward since the turn of the century, except for a couple of years at the height of the housing bubble.

    How did the economy do in the period 1948-1968 when LFP never went above 60%? GDP nearly quadrupled, and fell in only one year, 1949. We sure wouldn't want another strong, stable expansion like that.



    The decline is explained by a number of factors.

    "The labor force participation rate of women, which peaked in 1999, has been on a declining trend. In addition, instead of entering the labor force, baby boomers are retiring in large numbers and exiting the workforce. Once again, the baby-boom generation has become a generator of change, this time in its retirement. Moreover, the jobless recovery of the 2001 recession, coupled with the severe economic impact of the 20072009 recession, caused disruptions in the labor market." Labor force projections to 2022: the labor force participation rate continues to fall


    "The economic recovery from the 2007-09 recession has been slow, which may have propelled people to go back to school, stay at home with their kids, or give up on a search altogether when they could not find jobs in their field."

    "The trick is to determine how much of the drop represents the impact of a lagging economy, which is worrisome, and how much is due to non-worrisome factors, such as the aging of the adult population," said Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, in a 2013 PolitiFact interview. PolitiFact, January 26, 2014


    A recent Business Insider article argues that:

    [T]he data suggest that the vast majority of the decline in labor force participation in recent years can be accounted for by the retirement of the "baby boomer" generation of American workers. The Fed's Obsession Over Labor Force Participation Could Be A Big Mistake


    The author points to a recent study by Shigeru Fujita, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, titled "On the Causes of Declines in the Labor Force Participation Rate."

    "Fujita demonstrates that 'discouraged workers' only made up about a quarter of those leaving the labor force between 2007 and 2011, while the decline in the participation rate since the first quarter of 2012 is entirely accounted for by increases in non-participation due to retirement."

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    Re: Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 257,000 Jobs; Unemployment Ticks Up to 5.7%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Looks like a great report, except the unemployment rate rose.
    Actually the unemployment number is also not so bad, considering it means the potential workforce is growing.

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