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Meteorologists Apologizes for Blizzard Predictions...

And yet we need to upend civilization on climate models when they cannot even get the weather ones right :roll:

We weren't even supposed to have rain or snow yesterday but we got it anyway. Just some light flurries that didn't stick.
 
These are the same yahoos that think they understand climate change implicitly, and claim without doubt that my SUV is the cause of it.

Climate study - today, yesteryear, and in the distanct future - is a wildly inexact science as of today.

It's about as advanced as general meteorology.
 
It would be nice to have a more accurate way to forecast the weather.

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Problem is, I looked at the models and I saw the potential for danger. Couple of simple forecasting rules:

1. Snow... is a pain in the wazoo to forecast. Not that there will BE snow, but where and how much.

2. The more active a system, the less predictable it is. Again, this is about the when, where how much.

3. While I applaud warning people of worst case, never panic people, if you do it's the cry wolf syndrome and when a real disaster strikes they aren't listening.
 
Sometimes Mother Nature throws a curveball at the last minute.

There have been many times where, in my part of Illinois, we were suppose to get major severe weather and it either broke up before it hit or never materialized at all.
 

I don't know why, but I had a premonition that this thing was gonna be a bust. I mean, after two solid days of CNN hyping this "historic" storm... and nothing else, btw... I just laughed and said to husby, "I'll bet a whole bunch of city officials and weather folk are going to have egg on their face!"
 
I don't know why, but I had a premonition that this thing was gonna be a bust. I mean, after two solid days of CNN hyping this "historic" storm... and nothing else, btw... I just laughed and said to husby, "I'll bet a whole bunch of city officials and weather folk are going to have egg on their face!"


Of course if the officials didn't try to prepare and there was a blowout winter blast people would be screaming about the lack of preparedness.

No matter how big and smart we become , Mother Nature will always have the upper hand over us.
 

Definitely not for NYC but property and possibly lives may have been saved none-the-less. We only received 3-5 inches of snow and my commute to work was still triple what it normally is. People still drive on the highway as if they're invincible no matter what the weather and road conditions are and that recklessness causes accidents and costs lives.
 
How Meteorologists Botched The Blizzard Of 2015 | FiveThirtyEight

This is a good article showing how/why the forecast was read so wrong. It was based on one forecasting model that had been correct in the past, whilst other forecasting models were ignored.

Short term meteorology and long term climate change use completely different metrics and models and this incident has zero bearing on climate change predictions.
 
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