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Thread: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan' [W:479]

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    The Ukraine did nothing to warrant this attack .Why bother making agreements at all then if you were going to use armed force all along. Let me draw your attention to another agreement Russia reneged upon.

    Euromaidan overthrew a democratically elected Government.



    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    So much for Russian guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty and integrity after handing Russia back its nukes in 1994. And one also has to say so much for US assurances to it in wake of what has happened
    Memorandums aren't treaties, it's a note of record (political agreement), and that is all. EU even defines a political agreement expressed in principle, not as binding until vote. US could have pushed for a treaty and didn't because it wouldn't have passed the US Senate and US never gives explicit help (military) to anybody outside of NATO. That's what the word assurances are used and not guarantee.


    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    The EUs defence spending is but a fraction of what it was 25 years ago. Militarily it would be hard pushed to defend itself much less threaten hostilities. UK is one of the highest spenders yet military personnel numbers are the lowest seen in over 100 years. Wheres the threat ?
    In 100 years? Pretty sure WW2 was less then 100 years ago.

    Cause the mechanism in which the UK's military is used? Western militaries have moved more and more away from "traditional" combat to asymmetric warfare and dynamic warfare where smaller is better in theory. For example.. today with the use of an Air Force that didn't really exist in WW2, the outcome of a battle can be decided with a squad size force. A battalion can do what it would take a division to do in WW2 with a few Apaches.

    Welcome to modernized forces.


    Quote Originally Posted by flogger View Post
    Why then has Russias quadrupled since just 2000 ?
    Because Russia is going through a modernization process? From 1991-1997 Russian spending fell by 8 fold and it's equipment became outdated and broken down. It's launched two programs to reequip it's military and modernize it. The programs started in 2007 and 2011 and will end in 2020. New tank such Armata and increase use of BMD-4 as part of that. Russia is reducing the size of it's personal, right now it's down to 850,000 in all branches.
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by CycloneWanderer View Post
    I know of a lot of transformations for numbers (e.g., add, multiple, etc.), but "fudge" is a new one for me. Regardless, your math is wrong even in theory.

    You don't have to "fudge" anything because by multiplying by .91 you actually have already accounted for the missing voters in the parts of the country unable to vote. Therefore, that ~29.8% would represent the percent of people in the country who physically and literally voted for Poroshenko.

    Now, let me try my hand at this "fudge" thing.

    .39 (the conservative estimate of the percent of non-voters in areas of the country able to vote)
    x
    .91 (the percent of the country in areas able to vote)
    x
    .547 (the percent of voters who voted for Poro)
    =
    .194 = 19.4% (assuming an equal variance in voting preferences between voters and non-voters in areas able to vote, this is the additional percent of people who would vote for Poro)

    .09 (% of people in areas unable to vote)
    x
    .547 (% of voters who voted for Poro)
    =
    .049 (estimate of the % of population in the areas unable to vote who would have voted for Poro)

    Therefore:

    19.4% (estimate of the percent of people who would vote for Poro in areas able to vote that didn't)
    +
    4.9% (estimate of the percent of population in the areas unable to vote who probably would have voted for Poro)
    +
    29.8% (actual percent of population who physically and literally voted for Poro)
    =
    54.1% (this number estimates the percent of the population of the entire country that would have voted for Poro had they 100% voter participation.)

    Is this what you mean when you say "fudge?"


    Must be that new Math, don't ya' know. Poroshenko is in with 18% of eligible voters of Ukraine. Pretty simple.

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post

    Euromaidan overthrew a democratically elected Government.
    A government who clearly only had themselves to blame. Even Yanukovych's own cabinet abandoned him at the end due to his corruption.

    Memorandums aren't treaties, it's a note of record (political agreement), and that is all. EU even defines a political agreement expressed in principle, not as binding until vote. US could have pushed for a treaty and didn't because it wouldn't have passed the US Senate and US never gives explicit help (military) to anybody outside of NATO. That's what the word assurances are used and not guarantee.
    That will be really reassuring for its allies given the current circumstances and the major draw down of US forces

    In 100 years? Pretty sure WW2 was less then 100 years ago.
    I said they were the lowest military personnel numbers in over 100 years. The British army of the Rhine was disbanded just last year after maintaining a permanent garrison in Germany since WW2

    Cause the mechanism in which the UK's military is used? Western militaries have moved more and more away from "traditional" combat to asymmetric warfare and dynamic warfare where smaller is better in theory. For example.. today with the use of an Air Force that didn't really exist in WW2, the outcome of a battle can be decided with a squad size
    force. A battalion can do what it would take a division to do in WW2 with a few Apaches. Welcome to modernized forces.
    Far easier for the Russians to do with the same sort of modernized forces coupled their 850,000 men under arms. The US currently has only 28,000 personnel currently stationed in Europe

    The Russians are talking up the NATO threat simply as an excuse to try and re constitute the old USSR. If we ignore this we only have ourselves to blame for what happens next given some of Putins threatening public statements and actions

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    Cuba WAS forced during an occupation to "lease" Gitmo, period. I am not twisting logic here. What was good for the goose should be good for the gander, right? If not.. US should be closing a **** ton of bases overseas. You know bases in countries the US fights some war. You know the bases in Korea, Japan, Italy, and Germany.. US never annexes land my ass.

    Btw, don't confuse understanding a position with support of an action. I understand why Russia needed to annex Crimea. Just as I understand why EU and NATO need to keep enlarging. I find both actions to be deplorable but again I find both sides to be a bunch of ass hats who want to stay in control in the 21st century instead of letting their "empires" decline or want to unseat the old guard just as the US kicked the UK of it's perch a little under a century ago.
    What part of any US military base is annexed to the USA?
    Not even Guantanamo is annexed so that's a fail right off the bat.
    However how does anything the US did justify Putin's invasion and annexation of part of the Ukraine?
    You have yet to even address the question just posting the US is bad does not Justify Putin's actions.
    Since you refuse to answer the question asked then perhaps you will answer this. Why did Putin need to annex Crimea? Why do NATO and Europe NEED to keep enlarging while your at it.
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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    And I am not justifying any thing. All I am saying is if the position of the west is Ukraine is off limits to Russia, then the West should stop sticking it's hands in other countries as well. Can't preach Ukraine has a right, then muck about in some other nation like NATO countries and the West as a whole has been doing since Colonialism.
    No problems with that but you have been talking as if Putin HAD the right to do what he did.

    Well considering EU borders are pretty much (minus the expansion into what is now the old Warsaw Pact countries) are pretty much the same as the were during the Holy Roman Empire, I'd call that already done.
    Not really Scandinavia was never part of the Roman Empire and France/Spain/Great Britain weren't part of the Holy Roman Empire (totally different entity).

    Really? So where did you destroy the US's own claim that Gitmo is in it's National Interests? Gitmo has been used by the US Government to dump people at so the American public doesn't ask too many questions.. be it Cuban and Haitian refugees, those refugees and asylum seekers who had/have HIV were put together at Camp Bulkeley and for over a decade after US courts ruled it illegal and hen you know Camp Delta. Reality is Gitmo for US Government is that legal gray area people love... since the US don't consider it "US soil" and not subject to the courts oversight the issues quickly died after some fake promises.
    ??????
    That has nothing to do with what I said apparently you totally misread it, go back and try again.

    So can you guarantee Ukraine was gonna honor the 2042 lease date to Russia? No you can't. Hence Russia's position.
    Are you nuts?
    How would Ukraine have not honored it? Would they have stopped Russia militarily? Obviously that is out. Economically? Yeah they have the economic power to bring Russia down
    So you are now saying that since it is possibly one side may not honor its obligations decades into the future it is OK to invade and annex part of that country?
    Sorry your fist paragraph in this post was OK then you went into crazy land.
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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    Must be that new Math, don't ya' know. Poroshenko is in with 18% of eligible voters of Ukraine. Pretty simple.
    You already admitted you fudged the numbers to come up with the 18% and now you are pretending they are real and have meaning?
    Why are all the pro Putin posters completely detached from reality?
    A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    The US has no interests in peace. It pays it lip service, and some are gullible enough to believe the cheap talk. Actions speak louder than words.

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    Must be that new Math, don't ya' know. Poroshenko is in with 18% of eligible voters of Ukraine. Pretty simple.
    I don't think you understand the concept of math. You've already accounted for the 9% of people outside of able voting areas by starting with .91. Multiply by .60 as the percentof eligible voters who voted, and multiply by .547 as the percent of votes cast for Poro. Any additional fudging to lower that number more (such as subtracting a rather random value of .11) isn't "new math," it's "bull****."

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by CycloneWanderer View Post
    I don't think you understand the concept of math. You've already accounted for the 9% of people outside of able voting areas by starting with .91. Multiply by .60 as the percentof eligible voters who voted, and multiply by .547 as the percent of votes cast for Poro. Any additional fudging to lower that number more (such as subtracting a rather random value of .11) isn't "new math," it's "bull****."
    Take all eligible voters and divide into Poroshenko's total votes. End of story.

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    Re: U.S.: Putin's Peace Proposal for Ukraine is Nothing But 'Occupation Plan'

    Quote Originally Posted by CycloneWanderer View Post
    I don't think you understand the concept of math. You've already accounted for the 9% of people outside of able voting areas by starting with .91. Multiply by .60 as the percentof eligible voters who voted, and multiply by .547 as the percent of votes cast for Poro. Any additional fudging to lower that number more (such as subtracting a rather random value of .11) isn't "new math," it's "bull****."
    Divide the total number of votes cast for Poroshenko by the total number of eligible voters. End of story.

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