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Thread: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

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    U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    '(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December as demand fell almost across the board, tempering expectations for a sharp acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales fell 0.9 percent last month after a 0.4 percent increase in November.

    It was the biggest decline since last January and exceeded economists' expectations for only a 0.1 percent drop and implied a slower pace of consumer spending at the end of 2014.'


    U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months | Reuters



    More QE anybody?

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Sounds like most people who did their Christmas shopping did it Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Meh, I spent $1600 on tires this year so somebody's making out.

    Les Schwab mostly.
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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    '(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December as demand fell almost across the board, tempering expectations for a sharp acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales fell 0.9 percent last month after a 0.4 percent increase in November.

    It was the biggest decline since last January and exceeded economists' expectations for only a 0.1 percent drop and implied a slower pace of consumer spending at the end of 2014.'


    U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months | Reuters



    More QE anybody?
    I think most data from the BLS, and the gov't in general, is so massaged as to
    qualify as Fairy Tales (no insult to Fairies). Our data is managed the way the
    old USSR data was done. The fundamentals of our economy suck. Markets do
    not follow supply/demand drivers, ergo they must be manipulated. New jobs are
    in crap areas. Home medical, McDs, construction, and all areas of either low
    pay or seasonal work. Where is the investment in infrastructure to develop a
    base for long term employment? Where are the programs with defined long term
    goals i.e. Energy Conservation and Renewables as an infrastructural component?
    How about small farms. How about subsidized invention centers. How about
    downtown tax credits to compete against strip malls. As for the retail sales, it is
    a number reflected by people buying and not easily fixable by gov't shenanigans.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    I think most data from the BLS, and the gov't in general, is so massaged as to
    qualify as Fairy Tales (no insult to Fairies). Our data is managed the way the
    old USSR data was done. The fundamentals of our economy suck. Markets do
    not follow supply/demand drivers, ergo they must be manipulated. New jobs are
    in crap areas. Home medical, McDs, construction, and all areas of either low
    pay or seasonal work. Where is the investment in infrastructure to develop a
    base for long term employment? Where are the programs with defined long term
    goals i.e. Energy Conservation and Renewables as an infrastructural component?
    How about small farms. How about subsidized invention centers. How about
    downtown tax credits to compete against strip malls. As for the retail sales, it is
    a number reflected by people buying and not easily fixable by gov't shenanigans.
    The BLS?

    Oh...the Bureau Of Labored Statistics. Where creative math is a way of life.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    '(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December as demand fell almost across the board, tempering expectations for a sharp acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales fell 0.9 percent last month after a 0.4 percent increase in November.

    It was the biggest decline since last January and exceeded economists' expectations for only a 0.1 percent drop and implied a slower pace of consumer spending at the end of 2014.'


    U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months | Reuters

    More QE anybody?
    QE alone will not handle aggregate demand deficiency. If Aggregate Demand is the sum of Consumer Spending on good and services, Investment in capital goods, Government Spending on public goods and services, and Net Exports (Exports - Imports) then the best we can hope for QE alone to handle is Investment in capital goods by lowering rates and increasing the money supply. Understand just about all the QE going on back to 2008 has been increasing reserves, not actual money in circulation and in the process Debt held by the Fed is up well over 500% since 2008. Roughly $492 Billion in 2008 to well north of $2.705 Trillion at the end of 2014 2Q. The last thing we need is additional QE if no one is doing anything to handle the various economic deficiencies.

    For instance, the Labor Participation rate is 62.7% (a 38 year low) and we have 92.9 million Americans no longer in the labor force (an all time record high.) With the government reporting that unemployment is down, we know that "U-6" is still above 11% with no real sign of coming back down below 10% anytime soon. Another for instance, over 2014 we both had a record number and percentage of Americans on one or more forms of government dependence. That "war on poverty" did not turn out so well and with one hell of a cost just to realize dependence in a very permanent way. A last for instance, the conversation we are having in other threads on what is happening to income earnings by quintile as it relates to each being a healthy participant in the economy. The more we move people to the bottom, and keep them at labor rate increases below inflation the more we move money that would speak directly to money velocity right out of the picture.

    Our unhealthy economic model has placed us on permanent dependence for the Government Spending part of the equation above. The only way out of this it seems is to do now what we should have done in 2009, shift Government Spending more to infrastructure and technology and then lower regulations in whatever way causes economic growth headwinds. We can no longer afford for Government to squander spending and fill the economy with regulations that put the nation into permanent disability when competing on the world stage. That includes running the highest Corporate Tax rate around with costs that tell businesses to look outside our borders for product. But since we have so much Total Debt now and a Total Debt to GDP ratio above 100%, the only way to handle government spending the right way now economically speaking is to remove government spending the wrong way. Politics will damn near not allow for this but the writing is on the wall with plenty of math to back it up.

    Something has to give else we risk staying in this cyclic bubble pop economic model devoid of any control ability and where the model itself is dependent upon government spending to compensate for a decreasing number of middle income earners to take on an increasing amount of debt for wealth in private markets to gamble with. The next pop should be right around the corner, and it may involve currency this time. Not a good thought when considering our fiscal and debt position at the moment.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by Lursa View Post
    Meh, I spent $1600 on tires this year so somebody's making out.

    Les Schwab mostly.
    the unexpected expense fairy visited me, too. the Mini decided it needed a new battery. cost : four hundred bucks. for real.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    QE alone will not handle aggregate demand deficiency. If Aggregate Demand is the sum of Consumer Spending on good and services, Investment in capital goods, Government Spending on public goods and services, and Net Exports (Exports - Imports) then the best we can hope for QE alone to handle is Investment in capital goods by lowering rates and increasing the money supply. Understand just about all the QE going on back to 2008 has been increasing reserves, not actual money in circulation and in the process Debt held by the Fed is up well over 500% since 2008. Roughly $492 Billion in 2008 to well north of $2.705 Trillion at the end of 2014 2Q. The last thing we need is additional QE if no one is doing anything to handle the various economic deficiencies.

    For instance, the Labor Participation rate is 62.7% (a 38 year low) and we have 92.9 million Americans no longer in the labor force (an all time record high.) With the government reporting that unemployment is down, we know that "U-6" is still above 11% with no real sign of coming back down below 10% anytime soon. Another for instance, over 2014 we both had a record number and percentage of Americans on one or more forms of government dependence. That "war on poverty" did not turn out so well and with one hell of a cost just to realize dependence in a very permanent way. A last for instance, the conversation we are having in other threads on what is happening to income earnings by quintile as it relates to each being a healthy participant in the economy. The more we move people to the bottom, and keep them at labor rate increases below inflation the more we move money that would speak directly to money velocity right out of the picture.

    Our unhealthy economic model has placed us on permanent dependence for the Government Spending part of the equation above. The only way out of this it seems is to do now what we should have done in 2009, shift Government Spending more to infrastructure and technology and then lower regulations in whatever way causes economic growth headwinds. We can no longer afford for Government to squander spending and fill the economy with regulations that put the nation into permanent disability when competing on the world stage. That includes running the highest Corporate Tax rate around with costs that tell businesses to look outside our borders for product. But since we have so much Total Debt now and a Total Debt to GDP ratio above 100%, the only way to handle government spending the right way now economically speaking is to remove government spending the wrong way. Politics will damn near not allow for this but the writing is on the wall with plenty of math to back it up.

    Something has to give else we risk staying in this cyclic bubble pop economic model devoid of any control ability and where the model itself is dependent upon government spending to compensate for a decreasing number of middle income earners to take on an increasing amount of debt for wealth in private markets to gamble with. The next pop should be right around the corner, and it may involve currency this time. Not a good thought when considering our fiscal and debt position at the moment.
    For the record...my QE comment was a joke.

    I am totally against Keynesian government/Fed stimulus...have been since 2001.
    Last edited by DA60; 01-14-15 at 01:57 PM.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    How do you explain this news with the topic. It's a contradiction.

    US jobless rate falls to 5.6% in best year since 1999

    By Paul HandleyJanuary 9, 2015

    Washington (AFP) - The US unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in December, the lowest level in six and a half years, as the country capped its best year for job creation since 1999.

    US jobless rate falls to 5.6% in best year since 1999

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    How do you explain this news with the topic. It's a contradiction.
    It doesn't have to be a contradiction. If the new jobs are low wage and unskilled and the wages are going to catch up on bills that have already been incurred then you can have a drop in unemployment and also a drop in retail sales.

    I'm not saying that is what is happening, but consumer spending and unemployment rate are not tied together as you seem to think.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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