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Thread: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    How do you explain this news with the topic. It's a contradiction.
    You do realize that you can actually have a zero unemployment rate and no one is actually working (thanks to the BLS's creative math)?

    Imo, the U-3 rate means NOTHING...it exists purely to keep the ignorant masses placated.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    For instance, the Labor Participation rate is 62.7% (a 38 year low) and we have 92.9 million Americans no longer in the labor force (an all time record high.)
    Not in the Labor Force does not mean "no longer in the labor force". Many have never been in the Labor Force. All Not in the Labor Force means is that the person is neither working nor looking for work. About 93% of those Not in the Labor Force don't want a job. More retirees, more disabled, more people in school, and more stay home spouses (inferred...not directly measurable from monthly states)

    With the government reporting that unemployment is down, we know that "U-6" is still above 11% with no real sign of coming back down below 10% anytime soon.
    How do you figure that? The U-6 has been dropping right alongside the U-3. It's down from 13.1% in December 2013 to 11.2%
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    You do realize that you can actually have a zero unemployment rate and no one is actually working (thanks to the BLS's creative math)?
    I can't resist correcting bad math. The Unemployment rate is Unemployed/Labor Force, and Labor Force is Unemployed plus Employed. So our equation is U/(U+E). If E=0, then the Unemployment rate would be 100%. Only if no one was looking for work would the unemployment rate be zero (if employed was also zero then you'd be dividing by zero (which only Chuck Norris and the Most Interesting Man in the World can do)
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    I can't resist correcting bad math. The Unemployment rate is Unemployed/Labor Force, and Labor Force is Unemployed plus Employed. So our equation is U/(U+E). If E=0, then the Unemployment rate would be 100%. Only if no one was looking for work would the unemployment rate be zero (if employed was also zero then you'd be dividing by zero (which only Chuck Norris and the Most Interesting Man in the World can do)
    There is no bad math.

    Is it possible that the U-3 rate can be at zero with no one working...YES OR NO?

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    There is no bad math.

    Is it possible that the U-3 rate can be at zero with no one working...YES OR NO?
    No. I already explained the math: if Employment is zero, then either the numerator and denominator are equal (meaning the result is 100%) or you have 0/0 which is a meaningless equation.

    This is 3rd grade math, really. If you think it can occur, please show your math.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    No. I already explained the math: if Employment is zero, then either the numerator and denominator are equal (meaning the result is 100%) or you have 0/0 which is a meaningless equation.

    This is 3rd grade math, really. If you think it can occur, please show your math.
    ...Jeez, it's like talking to an obsessed member of a cult.

    If no one was working and no one was looking for work, would the the U-3 rate be zero? Yes or no?

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    ...Jeez, it's like talking to an obsessed teenager.

    If no one was working and no one was looking for work, would the the U-3 rate be zero? Yes or no?
    No. It would be undefined because you would be dividing by zero. Put it into a calculator or Excel...0/0 will give you an error message. What you're trying to say is that if there's no labor market, then there would be no unemployment rate.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    No. It would be undefined because you would be dividing by zero. Put it into a calculator or Excel...0/0 will give you an error message. What you're trying to say is that if there's no labor market, then there would be no unemployment rate.
    Lol...you already inadvertently admitted I am right...'Only if no one was looking for work would the unemployment rate be zero'
    And now you cannot even agree with yourself.


    Your creepy obsession with the Bureau of Labored Statistics aside...whether you like it or not...the pathetic way the BLS has set up the U-3 number is that if no one is employed in America and no one is officially looking for work then the official U-3 unemployment rate would be zero.

    End of story.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 01-15-15 at 12:54 PM.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    '(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December as demand fell almost across the board, tempering expectations for a sharp acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales fell 0.9 percent last month after a 0.4 percent increase in November.

    It was the biggest decline since last January and exceeded economists' expectations for only a 0.1 percent drop and implied a slower pace of consumer spending at the end of 2014.'


    U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months | Reuters



    More QE anybody?
    I don't know if this is relevant or accurate, but is there any impact related to the implementation of the ACA and this being the first year where enrollments are required by year end and plans purchased/paid for generally all at the same time, end of year? I ask because even though the economy in the US is moving ahead faster than ours here in Canada, we had no appreciable decline in consumer spending.
    "Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views." William F. Buckley Jr.

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    Re: U.S. retail sales post largest decline in 11 months

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Lol...you already inadvertently admitted I am right...'Only if no one was looking for work would the unemployment rate be zero'
    And now you cannot even agree with yourself.
    What are you talking about? If no one was looking for work AND Employment >0, then the UE rate would be zero. But that's not what you were claiming. You were claiming if no one was employed, then it would be zero, which is untrue. Again.....UE rate = U/(E+U). If E=0, then the rate will be 1 for all cases except U=0, in which case you have an undefined expression.


    Your creepy obsession with the Bureau of Labored Statistics aside...whether you like it or not...the pathetic way the BLS has set up the U-3 number is that if no one is employed in America and no one is officially looking for work then the official U-3 unemployment rate would be zero.
    What is 0/0? It is NOT 0.

    End of story.


    Good day.[/QUOTE]
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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