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Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.6%

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Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +243,000 to +261,000, and the change for November was revised from +321,000 to +353,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November were 50,000 higher than previously reported.

Employment Situation Summary

Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.
 
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Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Employment Situation Summary

Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.

More than 3 million jobs were created in 2014. There are some underlying issues, specifically low skill jobs making up the majority (which has shown up in aggregate wage growth). However, more people working is a positive that can be built upon. Economic stimulus in the form of energy price declines is sure to leak into the consumer non-discretionary side, which has been lagging since the end of 2007.

January looks to be a bit slower, as weather related issues are sure to slow down commerce but push more job growth into February and March.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Hard to say. I like to look for local clues that support national numbers, state numbers, and even local numbers. A relative works at a place that makes outdoor buildings/garden sheds. He indicated that their orders have picked up a lot so I take that as a good sign that the local economy is picking up some steam since those are not cheap and are largely discretionary.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Hard to say. I like to look for local clues that support national numbers, state numbers, and even local numbers. A relative works at a place that makes outdoor buildings/garden sheds. He indicated that their orders have picked up a lot so I take that as a good sign that the local economy is picking up some steam since those are not cheap and are largely discretionary.

What your relative is seeing could well be the effect of a robust stock market more so than a strong main street recovery. Either way it it is a good sign.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Employment Situation Summary

Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.

Another strong month?

According to the household survey:

The average hourly and weekly earnings went down.

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted


The non-seasonally adjusted number of workers went DOWN by 476,000 workers?!?

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

'What is seasonal adjustment?
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and unemployment change from month to month.'


What is seasonal adjustment?


So, Americans made less per hour and per week AND (removing the BLS's creative math - er - 'statistical technique') almost 1/2 a million fewer Americans were employed.

That sure is not my example of a 'strong month'.


People, always look past the headlines.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Employment Situation Summary

Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.

Gains? or a shell game....?

From your link.



"In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or
longer) was essentially unchanged..."

and

"The civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point
to 62.7 percent in December. Since April, the participation rate has remained
within a narrow range of 62.7 to 62.9 percent."
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Gains? or a shell game....?

From your link.



"In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or
longer) was essentially unchanged..."

and

"The civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point
to 62.7 percent in December. Since April, the participation rate has remained
within a narrow range of 62.7 to 62.9 percent."
Gains. The fact that the LFPR declined in no way dictates that job creation did not occur.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Another strong month?

According to the household survey:

The average hourly and weekly earnings went down.

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted


The non-seasonally adjusted number of workers went DOWN by 476,000 workers?!?

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

'What is seasonal adjustment?
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and unemployment change from month to month.'


What is seasonal adjustment?


So, Americans made less per hour and per week AND (removing the BLS's creative math - er - 'statistical technique') almost 1/2 a million fewer Americans were employed.

That sure is not my example of a 'strong month'.


People, always look past the headlines.
What you and others portray as a conspiracy is in fact an established economic trend. As seasonal positions dry up for potential job seekers, the raw and non-seasonally adjusted amount of employees declines towards the median. It's happened every year for the last decade :shrug:

Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Gains. The fact that the LFPR declined in no way dictates that job creation did not occur.

I don't think that a 30 hr per week job, is a full time job. Further, the LFPR has not been accurate for quite some time now.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

I believe that Declan has a good point. For those of us who are not economists, looking to local recoveries might well be the best way to judge the health of the economy. The county in which I live in Indiana had the unfortunate distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the country at one point, topping out around 20.2 percent. Today, the unemployment rate here is 5.3 percent. I live in a manufacturing county, the "RV capital of the world" some call it. With the return of the RV industry, I think its safe to say that we are on a healthy rebound, and there isn't much to complain about here compared to what it used to be. Granted this isn't the same for everywhere else, but it certainly does represent a forceful economic upturn.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

I don't think that a 30 hr per week job, is a full time job.

Who said it was? Furthermore, full time employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by roughly 400 thousand in the past month.

Further, the LFPR has not been accurate for quite some time now.

That's an opinion and frankly nothing more.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Who said it was? Furthermore, full time employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by roughly 400 thousand in the past month.



That's an opinion and frankly nothing more.

Who said it was? Obama, and democrats. That's who...And yep, it's an opinion...Mine...I believe if we ever saw the true UE numbers, there would be outrage, and backlash against the government.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Who said it was? Obama, and democrats. That's who

Citation needed.

..And yep, it's an opinion...Mine...I believe if we ever saw the true UE numbers, there would be outrage, and backlash against the government.

:roll:
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Citation needed.



:roll:

Citation?

The health insurance law said employees who work 30 hours a week must be considered “full-time” and must be offered health insurance by employers covered by the law.

Read more here: Definition of

First liberal progressives said to us, 'we don't need manufacturing, we will become a service based society in a global market place.' and we listened, now liberal progressives say that 'we don't need to work 40 hours, it should be 30' and you say you know nothing of it? Really? liberal progressives are killing this country.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

A few more tidbits from the BLS report (household survey):

Only 111,000 more Americans were employed.

And despite the over-16 female unemployment rate dropping from 5.7 to 5.3%...there were actually 205,000 less over-16 females employed last month.

Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age

Heck, even the non-seasonally adjusted U-6 unemployment rate went up.


So, once again, the drop in the U-3 is principally due to people leaving the labor force, not because more Americans are employed.
 
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Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Gains? or a shell game....?

From your link.



"In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or
longer) was essentially unchanged..."

and

"The civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point
to 62.7 percent in December. Since April, the participation rate has remained
within a narrow range of 62.7 to 62.9 percent."

The Labor Force Participation Rate is a nice number, but its change is not necessarily indicative of economic health. People often leave the Labor Force because they do not NEED to work (retire, go to school, become stay-at-home moms, start a business). The PPACA unbundled healthcare from employment, allowing people to cut the tether to jobs they did not want only to have the benefits they needed. An increasing LFPR can, in some circumstances, support the notion the economy is improving...

Unfortunately, all of the Cons predictions about our economic future levied in 2008 and 2012 have been proven to be wrong, so all they are left with is argue that underlying data wrong. Its a weak argument, but we all appreciate the fact that it is rapidly becoming their only argument.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

I believe that Declan has a good point. For those of us who are not economists, looking to local recoveries might well be the best way to judge the health of the economy. The county in which I live in Indiana had the unfortunate distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the country at one point, topping out around 20.2 percent. Today, the unemployment rate here is 5.3 percent. I live in a manufacturing county, the "RV capital of the world" some call it. With the return of the RV industry, I think its safe to say that we are on a healthy rebound, and there isn't much to complain about here compared to what it used to be. Granted this isn't the same for everywhere else, but it certainly does represent a forceful economic upturn.

As an employer in Colorado, a full-employment state, I can tell you that it is increasingly difficult to find people. Last year, my revenue grew by 8%, but my margins decreased significantly because all of my "growth" went to my employees in the form of wage increases and benefits....
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Citation?

The health insurance law said employees who work 30 hours a week must be considered “full-time” and must be offered health insurance by employers covered by the law.

Read more here: Definition of

First liberal progressives said to us, 'we don't need manufacturing, we will become a service based society in a global market place.' and we listened, now liberal progressives say that 'we don't need to work 40 hours, it should be 30' and you say you know nothing of it? Really? liberal progressives are killing this country.

The definition of a full-time employee, for the BLS purpose, is 35 hours per week.

BLS Glossary

The PPACA definition of full-time employee is its own animal (it has its own definition for its own purpose) and is not germane to this discussion. The 30 hours was suppose to keep employers from cutting 40 hour people...
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

The Labor Force Participation Rate is a nice number, but its change is not necessarily indicative of economic health. People often leave the Labor Force because they do not NEED to work (retire, go to school, become stay-at-home moms, start a business). The PPACA unbundled healthcare from employment, allowing people to cut the tether to jobs they did not want only to have the benefits they needed. An increasing LFPR can, in some circumstances, support the notion the economy is improving...

Unfortunately, all of the Cons predictions about our economic future levied in 2008 and 2012 have been proven to be wrong, so all they are left with is argue that underlying data wrong. Its a weak argument, but we all appreciate the fact that it is rapidly becoming their only argument.

Yeah, I've heard that argument before, however when asked to quantify, and back up that the Participation rate is due to Retirees, and people going back to school, I get crickets, so I am not buyin' it at the moment...Although I do think that some things are getting slightly better, I sure don't see any kind of boom's taking place, and local, and state governments are damned near broke. Roads suffering, tax initiatives on ballots, etc. Plus the stores that used to flourish in various strip malls, and downtown sectors are NOT coming back, and the jobs that seem to be out there are min wage jobs that illegals are soaking up, while those crushed in the downturn have given up, and aren't even counted anymore...Not something I would tout as some great achievement by Dear Leader....I'm no economic whiz but I do have eyes, and do talk to people....
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Yeah, I've heard that argument before, however when asked to quantify, and back up that the Participation rate is due to Retirees, and people going back to school, I get crickets, so I am not buyin' it at the moment....

Every month more a quarter of a million Americans turn 65.
That equals over 3 million a year.

From a May 2014 article

For decades, the retirement of the baby boom generation has been a looming economic threat. Now, it’s no longer looming — it’s here. Every month, more than a quarter-million Americans turn 65. That’s a trend with profound economic consequences. Simply put, retirees don’t contribute as much to the economy as workers do. They don’t produce anything, at least directly. They don’t spend as much on average. And they’re much more likely to depend on others — the government or their own children, most often — than to support themselves.

What Baby Boomers’ Retirement Means For the U.S. Economy | FiveThirtyEight
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

I believe that Declan has a good point. For those of us who are not economists, looking to local recoveries might well be the best way to judge the health of the economy. The county in which I live in Indiana had the unfortunate distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the country at one point, topping out around 20.2 percent. Today, the unemployment rate here is 5.3 percent. I live in a manufacturing county, the "RV capital of the world" some call it. With the return of the RV industry, I think its safe to say that we are on a healthy rebound, and there isn't much to complain about here compared to what it used to be. Granted this isn't the same for everywhere else, but it certainly does represent a forceful economic upturn.

yeah, you guys got hit pretty hard up there. we had something similar happen down here when the local GM economy tanked. glad to hear that you guys were able to rebound.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Every month more a quarter of a million Americans turn 65.
That equals over 3 million a year.

From a May 2014 article



What Baby Boomers’ Retirement Means For the U.S. Economy | FiveThirtyEight


Ok, Thanks for the article, I'll read it later...But if your numbers are correct, and I have no reason to disbelieve them at the moment, how does that match up with the other factors? ie; Newcomers to the employment pool, graduates, etc...
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

What? Almost five years of job growth demonstrating that left wing economics work after right wing economics tanked the economy? Say it ain't so!
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

What? Almost five years of job growth demonstrating that left wing economics work after right wing economics tanked the economy? Say it ain't so!

It is the "growth" that is in dispute....Those in support of the current administration, and its policies are clinging to stats that clearly are either manipulated, or don't provide a complete, and accurate picture of what is going on...

Like I said, I am a simple man, show me in real terms where things are getting better at the rate they should be....I don't think anyone would say that we have recovered the way we should have.
 
Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

What? Almost five years of job growth demonstrating that left wing economics work after right wing economics tanked the economy? Say it ain't so!

It was left wing economics that tanked the economy and it continues to left wing economics that continues to tank the economy.

Keynesian stimulus both monetary and fiscal, tax increases and one destructive health care law.
 
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