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Thread: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.6%

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    Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.6%

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

    The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +243,000 to +261,000, and the change for November was revised from +321,000 to +353,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November were 50,000 higher than previously reported.
    Employment Situation Summary

    Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.
    Last edited by a351; 01-09-15 at 05:54 PM.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Employment Situation Summary

    Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.
    More than 3 million jobs were created in 2014. There are some underlying issues, specifically low skill jobs making up the majority (which has shown up in aggregate wage growth). However, more people working is a positive that can be built upon. Economic stimulus in the form of energy price declines is sure to leak into the consumer non-discretionary side, which has been lagging since the end of 2007.

    January looks to be a bit slower, as weather related issues are sure to slow down commerce but push more job growth into February and March.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Hard to say. I like to look for local clues that support national numbers, state numbers, and even local numbers. A relative works at a place that makes outdoor buildings/garden sheds. He indicated that their orders have picked up a lot so I take that as a good sign that the local economy is picking up some steam since those are not cheap and are largely discretionary.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by Declan View Post
    Hard to say. I like to look for local clues that support national numbers, state numbers, and even local numbers. A relative works at a place that makes outdoor buildings/garden sheds. He indicated that their orders have picked up a lot so I take that as a good sign that the local economy is picking up some steam since those are not cheap and are largely discretionary.
    What your relative is seeing could well be the effect of a robust stock market more so than a strong main street recovery. Either way it it is a good sign.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Employment Situation Summary

    Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.
    Another strong month?

    According to the household survey:

    The average hourly and weekly earnings went down.

    Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted


    The non-seasonally adjusted number of workers went DOWN by 476,000 workers?!?

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

    'What is seasonal adjustment?
    Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and unemployment change from month to month.'


    What is seasonal adjustment?


    So, Americans made less per hour and per week AND (removing the BLS's creative math - er - 'statistical technique') almost 1/2 a million fewer Americans were employed.

    That sure is not my example of a 'strong month'.


    People, always look past the headlines.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Employment Situation Summary

    Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.
    Gains? or a shell game....?

    From your link.



    "In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or
    longer) was essentially unchanged..."

    and

    "The civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point
    to 62.7 percent in December. Since April, the participation rate has remained
    within a narrow range of 62.7 to 62.9 percent."
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Gains? or a shell game....?

    From your link.



    "In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or
    longer) was essentially unchanged..."

    and

    "The civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point
    to 62.7 percent in December. Since April, the participation rate has remained
    within a narrow range of 62.7 to 62.9 percent."
    Gains. The fact that the LFPR declined in no way dictates that job creation did not occur.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Another strong month?

    According to the household survey:

    The average hourly and weekly earnings went down.

    Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted


    The non-seasonally adjusted number of workers went DOWN by 476,000 workers?!?

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

    'What is seasonal adjustment?
    Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and unemployment change from month to month.'


    What is seasonal adjustment?


    So, Americans made less per hour and per week AND (removing the BLS's creative math - er - 'statistical technique') almost 1/2 a million fewer Americans were employed.

    That sure is not my example of a 'strong month'.


    People, always look past the headlines.
    What you and others portray as a conspiracy is in fact an established economic trend. As seasonal positions dry up for potential job seekers, the raw and non-seasonally adjusted amount of employees declines towards the median. It's happened every year for the last decade

    Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Gains. The fact that the LFPR declined in no way dictates that job creation did not occur.
    I don't think that a 30 hr per week job, is a full time job. Further, the LFPR has not been accurate for quite some time now.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    I believe that Declan has a good point. For those of us who are not economists, looking to local recoveries might well be the best way to judge the health of the economy. The county in which I live in Indiana had the unfortunate distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the country at one point, topping out around 20.2 percent. Today, the unemployment rate here is 5.3 percent. I live in a manufacturing county, the "RV capital of the world" some call it. With the return of the RV industry, I think its safe to say that we are on a healthy rebound, and there isn't much to complain about here compared to what it used to be. Granted this isn't the same for everywhere else, but it certainly does represent a forceful economic upturn.

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