Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.6%

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Fenton said:

It was left wing economics that tanked the economy and it continues to left wing economics that continues to tank the economy.

Keynesian stimulus both monetary and fiscal, tax increases and one destructive health care law.

Click to expand...

The idea that the economy "continues to tank" is simple denial.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

More evidence that the employment numbers were not that good - at least to the macroeconomic ignoramuses at the Fed;

'Evans pointed to the 5 cent drop in average hourly earnings in the December jobs report—pulling the annualized gain down to 1.7 percent—as "somewhat indicative of the low inflation pressures that we've been seeing." Wages need to rise for the Fed's inflation target to be met, he added.

"It's one of the dilemmas we're facing. And that's why I'm in favor of being patient on raising interest rates," he continued. "We shouldn't be raising rates before 2016."'

Chicago Fed's Evans: No rate hike before 2016

So even the Fed realizes that the drop in wages is a big concern...enough that this Fed uber-dove thinks this is evidence that ZIRP rates should not change anytime soon.


Once again...people...NEVER take the headlines as fact. Read past them.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Paschendale said:

What? Almost five years of job growth demonstrating that left wing economics work after right wing economics tanked the economy? Say it ain't so!

Click to expand...

Almost all of that job growth is for over 55's.

And that is despite over $12 trillion of government/Fed stimulus, a 70% increase in the national debt, a 45% increase in food stamp usage and near-zero interest rates.

That is a pathetic recovery for the staggering amounts of stimulus thrown at it...especially considering that America has averaged a recession roughly every 6 years in her history and that she recovered from almost everyone of them without virtually any stimulus.


What Keynesian's/Obama-lovers simply do not understand is that all this stimulus is stagnating the U.S. economy and funnelling monies to the rich (just look at the income gap rise).

It's a macroeconomic house of cards that will collapse as soon as the crutches of government stimulus are removed.


When there is no more QE (it's still going on, btw) and no more ZIRP for at least six months AND the economy is still growing at a reasonably healthy rate...ONLY THEN can those that support these ridiculous policies rightly say that they worked.

But remember, there was only supposed to be one QE (there have been 3 plus Operation Twist so far) and ZIRP were supposed to last just a few months...and that was over 6 years ago.

Politicians from both parties are TOTALLY clueless what to do and the Fed is full of Keynesian dove, bean counters who are the same organization that were totally clueless about the housing crash even after it had started (as shown in the Fed minutes from that time).

This present policy will end in disaster and the Fed cannot EVER stop stimulating or the economy will collapse because it is COMPLETELY dependent on the government/Fed teat.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

j-mac said:

It is the "growth" that is in dispute....Those in support of the current administration, and its policies are clinging to stats that clearly are either manipulated, or don't provide a complete, and accurate picture of what is going on...

Like I said, I am a simple man, show me in real terms where things are getting better at the rate they should be....I don't think anyone would say that we have recovered the way we should have.

Click to expand...

"But I don't believe any numbers you post."

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

DA60 said:

Almost all of that job growth is for over 55's.

Click to expand...

Of course. Even liberal economics aren't a cure for the fact that our economy has horribly screwed my generation in favor of the Baby Boomers. They spent our money before we were even born. They amassed massive debt so they could live the high life, and expect us to pay it off. You want real justice? Completely eradicate social security and medicare and let all of those Tea Partiers go hungry. I and mine will be paying for their retirements for the next several decades while we struggle to make our rent. But we're not cruel like that, and we want the system to work for the generations that come after us. It's a shame that those who came before us had such shallow moral character and such short-sightedness and couldn't be trusted with the well-being of their descendants.

This present policy will end in disaster and the Fed cannot EVER stop stimulating or the economy will collapse because it is COMPLETELY dependent on the government/Fed teat.

Click to expand...

The present policy will end in disaster because we don't invest in the future at all. All we do is stopgap for the past. Your notion of government action as necessarily bad is obviously absurd, but massive change is needed. However, it is massive change that the grumpy older generation doesn't want, because they'll have to give up that government teat that they're all so greedily sucking off of.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

DA60 said:

Another strong month?

According to the household survey:

The average hourly and weekly earnings went down.

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

Click to expand...

You say household survey, but then cite the establishment survey. Weird.

The non-seasonally adjusted number of workers went DOWN by 476,000 workers?!?

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

'What is seasonal adjustment?
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and unemployment change from month to month.'

What is seasonal adjustment?


So, Americans made less per hour and per week AND (removing the BLS's creative math - er - 'statistical technique') almost 1/2 a million fewer Americans were employed.

Click to expand...

You linked to the explanation of seasonal adjustment, but you apparently didn't understand.
Employment usually goes down in December. In the last 50 years employment has gone down 38 times in December.
So…how much of the change was the economy, and how much just December?
It's like measuring water level at the beach: you have to compensate for the tide.

Further example, not seasonally adjusted total employment has never ever gone down in June. So employment going up in June means nothing. You have to seasonally adjust or you learn nothing.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

a351 said:

Employment Situation Summary

Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.

Click to expand...

Yet, the economy still sucks. I wonder how many of those jobs were part-time?

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

pinqy said:

You say household survey, but then cite the establishment survey. Weird.

Click to expand...

It's called a mistake...we all did not work at the Bureau of Labored Statistics like you claim to have. The statistics are the same.

Actually, you keep claiming that the establishment survey is SO much more accurate...so it adds even more backing to my point.

Thanks.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Paschendale said:

What? Almost five years of job growth demonstrating that left wing economics work after right wing economics tanked the economy? Say it ain't so!

Click to expand...

Ah, the double speak of the left. Don't believe your eyes, all is well!

We need a certain amount of job growth just to keep up with population growth. Saying we have job growth means about as much as saying the sun rose everyday this week. Big deal. That' a pretty low bar, something we've come to expect from Obama. It simply is not a priority for the left.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

I just want to point out that according to this Aug. 2014 CNN Money article the average income is finally on the rise again.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

The typical American is finally bringing home a bigger paycheck.

Median household income has been on the rise for the past three years, climbing 3.8% to $53,891 in June, according to newly released data by Sentier Research. It's yet another indication that the economic recovery is taking hold.


But Americans have yet to fully heal from the Great Recession, which officially ended five years ago. Median income remains 3.1% below its June 2009 level of $55,589. That's in large part because unemployment remained high in the early years of the recovery, according to Sentier.

Click to expand...

Median income is on the rise ... finally! - Aug. 20, 2014

Median income is on the rise ... finally! - Aug. 20, 2014

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

pinqy said:

You say household survey, but then cite the establishment survey. Weird.



You linked to the explanation of seasonal adjustment, but you apparently didn't understand.
Employment usually goes down in December. In the last 50 years employment has gone down 38 times in December.
So…how much of the change was the economy, and how much just December?
It's like measuring water level at the beach: you have to compensate for the tide.

Further example, not seasonally adjusted total employment has never ever gone down in June. So employment going up in June means nothing. You have to seasonally adjust or you learn nothing.

Click to expand...

Lol.

I understood it fully (it's child's play) and I believed you would say almost exactly what you said as the excuse.

And I reject it.

It should not be up to the BLS to modify the stats to make them more palatable for the public. They should post the raw stats and let the public determine what they mean.

No doubt, you do not understand what I truly mean (even if you say you do).


Btw, why you keep giving me your opinions on this subject when I have told you time and again I have no respect for them as they are so staggeringly biased, is beyond me.

I am beginning to wonder if you have a learning disability...no offense. It's either that and/or you are so obsessed about the BLS that you literally cannot stand anyone putting it down in any capacity.
Either way makes you ridiculously biased and totally useless as an objective opinion.
Why you cannot see this is totally beyond me.

Oh well.

We are done for now...until next month when I post a stat from the BLS that you don't like and you once again go anal retentive on me. Like clockwork.

Frankly, I am starting to find it a little creepy. Like your life partially revolves around defending the BUreau of Labored Statistics.

Until then.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

j-mac said:

Yeah, I've heard that argument before, however when asked to quantify, and back up that the Participation rate is due to Retirees, and people going back to school, I get crickets, so I am not buyin' it at the moment...Although I do think that some things are getting slightly better, I sure don't see any kind of boom's taking place, and local, and state governments are damned near broke. Roads suffering, tax initiatives on ballots, etc. Plus the stores that used to flourish in various strip malls, and downtown sectors are NOT coming back, and the jobs that seem to be out there are min wage jobs that illegals are soaking up, while those crushed in the downturn have given up, and aren't even counted anymore...Not something I would tout as some great achievement by Dear Leader....I'm no economic whiz but I do have eyes, and do talk to people....

Click to expand...

Fair enough. The components of Not in the Work Force, cross-referenced to source. You will note that 90M of the number (almost 99%) is explained by items that generally show economic strength, not weakness.



or http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/2014-11.pdf

You should be careful of anecdotal information. You can always find exceptions to rules/trends. On a local level, those exceptions can actually be the rule...
Anecdotally, I can tell you that I started a business near the beginning of this recession.... I have a much, much tougher problem hiring now than I did in 2010; I have had to pay more and still have increasing problems. Though my jobs are lower wage (about 30% above minimum).... I am not hiring immigrants (illegal or legal)....but, that is a data point of one.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

upsideguy said:

Fair enough. The components of Not in the Work Force, cross-referenced to source. You will note that 90M of the number (almost 99%) is explained by items that generally show economic strength, not weakness.

View attachment 67178855

or http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/2014-11.pdf

You should be careful of anecdotal information. You can always find exceptions to rules/trends. On a local level, those exceptions can actually be the rule...
Anecdotally, I can tell you that I started a business near the beginning of this recession.... I have a much, much tougher problem hiring now than I did in 2010; I have had to pay more and still have increasing problems. Though my jobs are lower wage (about 30% above minimum).... I am not hiring immigrants (illegal or legal)....but, that is a data point of one.

Click to expand...

Thanks for posting that chart.
I did a quick search for those numbers earlier this week but didn't find it.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

j-mac said:

I don't think that a 30 hr per week job, is a full time job. Further, the LFPR has not been accurate for quite some time now.

Click to expand...

No one I know believes those numbers anyway. People aren't that stupid!

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

pinqy said:

You say household survey, but then cite the establishment survey. Weird.



You linked to the explanation of seasonal adjustment, but you apparently didn't understand.
Employment usually goes down in December. In the last 50 years employment has gone down 38 times in December.
So…how much of the change was the economy, and how much just December?
It's like measuring water level at the beach: you have to compensate for the tide.

Further example, not seasonally adjusted total employment has never ever gone down in June. So employment going up in June means nothing. You have to seasonally adjust or you learn nothing.

Click to expand...

A lot of December hires were for part time workers because of holiday shopping. They don't have those jobs any more.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

upsideguy said:

Fair enough. The components of Not in the Work Force, cross-referenced to source. You will note that 90M of the number (almost 99%) is explained by items that generally show economic strength, not weakness.

View attachment 67178855

or http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/2014-11.pdf

You should be careful of anecdotal information. You can always find exceptions to rules/trends. On a local level, those exceptions can actually be the rule...
Anecdotally, I can tell you that I started a business near the beginning of this recession.... I have a much, much tougher problem hiring now than I did in 2010; I have had to pay more and still have increasing problems. Though my jobs are lower wage (about 30% above minimum).... I am not hiring immigrants (illegal or legal)....but, that is a data point of one.

Click to expand...

Why aren't you paying a "living wage"?

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

leoborn said:

No one I know believes those numbers anyway. People aren't that stupid!

Click to expand...

Oh the irony!

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

upsideguy said:

Fair enough. The components of Not in the Work Force, cross-referenced to source. You will note that 90M of the number (almost 99%) is explained by items that generally show economic strength, not weakness.

View attachment 67178855 No

or http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/2014-11.pdf

You should be careful of anecdotal information.

Click to expand...

Your data are not applicable, as many of the full time students do work or are UN err employed. And many of the elderly are in retirement homes or assisted living facilities. Your comparing different universes.

Labor Force information for students can be found at A-16. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 to 24 years of age by school enrollment, age, sex, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, and educational attainment
And over 65 and disability status is a thttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t06.htm

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Anthony60 said:

We need a certain amount of job growth just to keep up with population growth.

Click to expand...

Speaking of which, how much did the population grow in 2014?

We do know that in 2014, job growth was at its highest level since the Clinton administration:



2.952 million jobs were created in 2014.

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Kushinator said:

Speaking of which, how much did the population grow in 2014?

We do know that in 2014, job growth was at its highest level since the Clinton administration:

2.952 million jobs were created in 2014.

Click to expand...

And how much of that was part-time, low wage jobs?

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

a351 said:

Employment Situation Summary

Another strong month of gains to cap off 2014. This, in addition to the positive revisions for the previous two months make it the strongest year of job growth since 1999. While some indicators did trend down during the month, the year as a whole was an undoubtedly positive one for the US economy.

Click to expand...

So starting to get back to normal values, after how long?

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Anthony60 said:

And how much of that was part-time, low wage jobs?

Click to expand...

According to the BLS, there are 62000 less part time jobs than there were a year ago. .

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

Ikari said:

So starting to get back to normal values, after how long?

Click to expand...

Hiring began to stabilize in 2012. Look at the trough:

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

j-mac said:

Why aren't you paying a "living wage"?

Click to expand...

The economics of the business are what they are.... I do not get to set prices above the prevailing market and people are willing to work for the wage we offer (though we pay at the upper end of market). We just suffer from margin compression in a strong economy..

Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

pinqy said:

Your data are not applicable, as many of the full time students do work or are UN err employed. And many of the elderly are in retirement homes or assisted living facilities. Your comparing different universes.

Labor Force information for students can be found at A-16. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 to 24 years of age by school enrollment, age, sex, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, and educational attainment
And over 65 and disability status is a thttp://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t06.htm

Click to expand...

I not certain what the living arrangements of seniors has to do with anything, unless you wrongly believe that living in an assisted living qualifies as being in an institution. An assisted living is a residential option, not an institution.

So your BLS table refutes 7.8M of the 22M students, suggesting that 7.8M are indeed in the work force, but the other 14.2M are not. So, other than taking issue with 7.8M of my 90M number, you really haven't offered much in the way of refinement of the composition of Not in Labor Force. Until you have a better set of numbers, it stands. So, we still have more than 90% of NILF explained by something the reflects positively on the economy: that is the people can afford to retire, be stay at home moms or go to school without having to work.

One of the biggest components of NILF are persons that are entrepreneurs / free lance consultants. I, for one, am not in the labor force as I have no job. I do own a business that employs 80 persons, who are in the labor force. Though I have my moments of discouragement in owning a business, I am not considered a worker, unemployed or discouraged worker. I am an example of one, but there are millions like me.

According to the BLS, 90% (87M of the 93M) of the NILF are not interested in a job....

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm#cps_eande_m38.f.1

... because they are retired, stay at home moms or other family issues, disabled or students...

http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#nlf