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Thread: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.6%

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthony60 View Post
    And how much of that was part-time, low wage jobs?
    With any recovery, regardless of which party is in power, you will have a disproportionate number of lower wage jobs created until all the slack is out of the labor market. Right now we have 1.8 people looking for a job for every job opening (it was an 8 to 1 ratio when Bush left office). Until that drops to closer to a 1 to 1 ratio (hopefully will this year), then there will not be a lot of economic pressure on employers to increase wages in many fields.
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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    With any recovery, regardless of which party is in power, you will have a disproportionate number of lower wage jobs created until all the slack is out of the labor market. Right now we have 1.8 people looking for a job for every job opening (it was an 8 to 1 ratio when Bush left office). Until that drops to closer to a 1 to 1 ratio (hopefully will this year), then there will not be a lot of economic pressure on employers to increase wages in many fields.
    The issue of low wage jobs should not be a partisan issue. America is a high wage nation in a world of global competition. I know someone who works for a major US based company. The job he does is skilled probably pays $150-250K. He now is the last U.S. person on the team he works with. Used to be all Americans, but they are too expensive. Not bashing companies, this is just a reality. Read the old Thomas Friendman book, The World is Flat.

    So a nation can't go from middle managers being fired and rehired as Wal Mart greeters and have meaningful wage growth.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    I not certain what the living arrangements of seniors has to do with anything, unless you wrongly believe that living in an assisted living qualifies as being in an institution. An assisted living is a residential option, not an institution.
    Perhaps "assisted living" was not the best choice of phrases, as it seems that that covers a variety of arrangements. Technical Paper 66 states: "The institutional population refers to a population universe consisting of inmates or residents of CPS-defined institutions, such as prisons, nursing homes, juvenile detention facilities, or residential mental hospitals." I was assuming, perhaps mistakenly, that at least some assisted living facilities and retirement homes would also fall into that definition because of their lack of free participation in the labor force. But regardless of specific facilities, it remains that many social security receipients are not in the population, and at the same time, some who are receipients do (limited) work, so it's better to go off of Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted and other specific categories to determine the not in the labor force breakdown.

    So your BLS table refutes 7.8M of the 22M students, suggesting that 7.8M are indeed in the work force, but the other 14.2M are not. So, other than taking issue with 7.8M of my 90M number, you really haven't offered much in the way of refinement of the composition of Not in Labor Force.
    My point was that using sources other than the CPS for Not in the Labor Force breakdown will be inaccurate as they are different samples of different statistical universes with different definitions. You looked at full time students assuming none were in the labor force, while the tables I showed were all enrolled with many in the labor force. Sure, what you posted was close enough to make the overall point, but I feel it's better to use more accurate and specific data, if available.

    Until you have a better set of numbers, it stands. So, we still have more than 90% of NILF explained by something the reflects positively on the economy: that is the people can afford to retire, be stay at home moms or go to school without having to work.
    I wasn't trying to refute that overall point, and there are plenty of other categories as well. About 93% of those Not in the Labor Force do not want to work and of those who say they do, most are only hypothetical in that they haven't done anything about work in the last year, or are not available for work.

    One of the biggest components of NILF are persons that are entrepreneurs / free lance consultants. I, for one, am not in the labor force as I have no job. I do own a business that employs 80 persons, who are in the labor force. Though I have my moments of discouragement in owning a business, I am not considered a worker, unemployed or discouraged worker.
    If you receive any profits from a business (or would receive profits if the business was profitable) then you are considered employed regardless of how many hours you worked unless the ownership is no more than an investment. Those are the first questions on the survey...establishing business or farm ownership. From the Interviewer's Manual: "If a person receives part of the profits from the business/farm, or would have received part of the profits if the
    business/farm had not operated at a loss, consider him/her to be working. This is regardless of the number of hours worked during the reference week unless (s)he owns the business for investment purposes only. The part of the profit received can be in cash or pay "in kind.""
    Even just buying and selling on Ebay is considered a business if you're buying things specifically for resale and intend to make a profit.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.


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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    The issue of low wage jobs should not be a partisan issue. America is a high wage nation in a world of global competition. I know someone who works for a major US based company. The job he does is skilled probably pays $150-250K. He now is the last U.S. person on the team he works with. Used to be all Americans, but they are too expensive. Not bashing companies, this is just a reality. Read the old Thomas Friendman book, The World is Flat.

    So a nation can't go from middle managers being fired and rehired as Wal Mart greeters and have meaningful wage growth.
    I have a similar story - our friend oversaw the offshoring of his entire roughly 100 person white and pink collar professional department to India. He kept his job, but only because he transitioned to some other function and now travels the world performing audits of offshored operations.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    I have a similar story - our friend oversaw the offshoring of his entire roughly 100 person white and pink collar professional department to India. He kept his job, but only because he transitioned to some other function and now travels the world performing audits of offshored operations.
    As a nation we have to decide whether we want to trade our jobs for lower prices and higher stock market. If we really want to back income growth and jobs here, then there are some adjustments we can make in our corporate tax code to make it more favorable to hire in the U.S.

    If we remember back to the primary season of 2008. An attack Obama used successfully against Clinton was calling for Fair trade versus Free trade. To the best of my knowledge, no one on either side of the aisle has picked up this mantle.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    As a nation we have to decide whether we want to trade our jobs for lower prices and higher stock market. If we really want to back income growth and jobs here, then there are some adjustments we can make in our corporate tax code to make it more favorable to hire in the U.S.

    If we remember back to the primary season of 2008. An attack Obama used successfully against Clinton was calling for Fair trade versus Free trade. To the best of my knowledge, no one on either side of the aisle has picked up this mantle.
    I'm all for adjusting the corporate income tax code. Without having looked at any research that estimates the results, I'm OK with making corporate income taxes roughly zero, then taxing distribution back out to owners at relatively high rates. The advantage of levying entity level (e.g. corporate) income taxes is to match expenses of government used by that entity with taxes paid by that entity. But the reality is the big boys can elect when and how much tax to pay in many cases and the high rates punish domestic, mostly smaller corporations who can't park $100 billion offshore and borrow funds until we have another repatriation 'holiday' etc. So I'm OK with dramatically lowering corporate rates, or treating C Corps like LLCs and S corps (profits passed through to owners, maybe taxed when distributed) if that's what will work to level the playing field a bit. We're competing with massive subsidies of overseas operations and I don't see that realistically changing. So if it takes U.S. corporate tax subsidies of DOMESTIC entities and operations to fix that - well, that sucks but what's the alternative?

    And I agree about "free" trade. The Trans pacific agreement PROCESS is a joke - negotiated by lobbyists, with many Congress critters literally unable to see the draft language. The public is only getting occasionally leaked documents, and presumably it will be brought up under some kind of fast track BS so it can be jammed through before public opposition has time to build. It's as good an example of any how the process has been corrupted, and in both parties - Obama supports this process, obviously.

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Yeah, I've heard that argument before, however when asked to quantify, and back up that the Participation rate is due to Retirees, and people going back to school, I get crickets, so I am not buyin' it at the moment...Although I do think that some things are getting slightly better, I sure don't see any kind of boom's taking place, and local, and state governments are damned near broke. Roads suffering, tax initiatives on ballots, etc. Plus the stores that used to flourish in various strip malls, and downtown sectors are NOT coming back, and the jobs that seem to be out there are min wage jobs that illegals are soaking up, while those crushed in the downturn have given up, and aren't even counted anymore...Not something I would tout as some great achievement by Dear Leader....I'm no economic whiz but I do have eyes, and do talk to people....
    This graph is an excellent illustration of the components of Not in Work Force, and the changes thereto over 12 years. Note that none of the significant components are measures of weak economy...

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/12/up...abt=0002&abg=1

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    I do not know of a reliable unbiased statistic but, it would seem to me that if we are indeed recovering that we would see a corresponding drop in public assistance spending. I am not calling on Social Security, but actual assistance. Have we seen a corresponding drop in these programs, either in spend rate or applications?

    Another measure would be the rate at which disability is applied for and granted, that spiked along with the UE rate.

    Any good sources on these indicators?

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    Re: Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by stevedtx View Post
    I do not know of a reliable unbiased statistic but, it would seem to me that if we are indeed recovering that we would see a corresponding drop in public assistance spending. I am not calling on Social Security, but actual assistance. Have we seen a corresponding drop in these programs, either in spend rate or applications?

    Another measure would be the rate at which disability is applied for and granted, that spiked along with the UE rate.

    Any good sources on these indicators?
    That is more due in part to changes in eligibility. Recently, state governments have been re-instituting cutoffs.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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