I wonder if the annexation of Crimea had anything to do with Ukraine's move to join Nato.
You wonder? Of course it does. That's actually Putin's stated excuse, that if Russia didn't act, their Sevastopol Black Sea fleet would be jeopardized by Ukraine eventually joining NATO.
Sure, the Ukrainians are free to vote for not being non-aligned, and are free to petition NATO for membership.
Now, this doesn't force NATO to accept them. If NATO does, this would be a COLOSSAL geopolitical mistake, for numerous reasons.
1. Ukraine considered joining in 2008. NATO rightly considered them unattractive at the time.
2. Ever since, Ukraine became even more of a basket case: political instability, unclear real percentage of support for the current government, territorial dispute, extreme right wing players in bed with the government, and military disarray. So, if NATO didn't want them then, why would it want them now?
3. Russia does have a legitimate claim that eastward NATO expansion destabilizes Europe. It is not surprising that Russia became all paranoid about this.
Now, in economic terms, NATO is not an economical block but rather a military club. However, naturally, if Ukraine were to be accepted into NATO, there would be a political push to also get Ukraine into the European Union. This would be another COLOSSAL mistake.
1. Economic disarray. The EU would have a lot more to spend in Ukraine than to profit from them joining the union and trading more freely with the union.
2. Unemployed and displaced population. Given free access to life and work in any of the 28 existing EU countries (even after the usual quarantine time), there would be massive migration from Ukraine into the EU countries, aggravating social problems and putting pressure in the employment markets there.
3. Ideological problems with questionable commitment to democracy
4. Cultural problems with much of Ukraine being more culturally identified with Russia
What exactly is there to gain from Ukraine joining either NATO or the EU or both?
For the people and the economy in the EU and the other NATO countries, nothing; just a big headache.
For individual businessmen with some sectoral interests in parts of the Ukraine economy, sure, short term profits, but then, nobody profits from wars and instability, so if this throws Europe in turmoil, these businessmen are being very short-sighted and might end up losing a lot more than profiting, in the mid and long run.
For strategic interests, Ukraine does sit in a tempting strategic geography, and does possess a belic industry that supplies Russia with parts for nuclear weapons and the such. However the price to pay for acquiring these strategic assets might be too steep, exactly in strategic terms, by pushing Russia into more extreme and desperate actions. I mean, Russia is a big nuclear weapons state. Is it really good strategy to go poke them in the ribs?
So, these moves are DANGEROUS and are taking the world into a very bad path.
(continued in subsequent posts)