- Joined
- Nov 20, 2013
- Messages
- 65,367
- Reaction score
- 49,395
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Other
You're misinformed.
OK, kinda why I posted that the way I did.
The USD tends to grow stronger vs the Euro when QE is announced. The exception is in 2014, when QE efforts have largely been phased out, and the USD still grew stronger. USD vs GBP shows no real correlation to rounds of QE. USD vs JPY shows no correlation to either QE or EUR or GBP. The Yuan is still largely pegged to the USD.
QE can act as an inflationary force... unless the country is in a liquidity trap and/or facing other serious deflationary pressures (as the US did from 2007 to the present). It also seems that QE didn't do much, since the banks do not seem to have substantially increased lending and/or it is only very recently that consumer borrowing has gone up. Oh, and the Eurozone and the UK have done their own rounds of QE.
A QE race that we are winning?
1) Even by your own claim, you're incorrect. QE has been mostly phased out, and the Fed is unlikely to start another round.
2) The USD is actually fairly strong right now -- strong enough to potentially harm exports, and make imports more expensive. (E.g. Strong dollar takes toll on U.S. businesses)
I understand how a strong dollar makes exporting from the US to other markets more challenging, in that it takes more of the foreign currency to pay for the US exported goods, but I don't see how a strong dollar makes US imports more expensive, it would make them cheaper, wouldn't it?
Now, we might make the claim that QE has boosted the stock market. In particular, it appears that cheap debt has fueled lots of stock buy-backs. However, AFAIK that doesn't have a big effect on GDP. Thus, it does make sense to look at what current GDP figures say about the economy, and conclude that things improved substantially for the US in Q3 2014, even as most other world economies took a bit of a nosedive.
Therefore: :2dance:
A combination of a US economic recovery, and a foreign economic set back I guess.
Still, all that toxic debt that the Fed's placed on their balance sheet. That bill hasn't come due yet, and it's going to have to at some time. I wonder the effect of this when it does.