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Thread: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

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    Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment
    rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
    Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail
    trade, health care, and manufacturing.
    This is probably one of the strongest reports in the past two years, given the upward revisions from previous months and the rise in earnings. YoY, average hourly earnings have increased 2.1% year over year, which is actually higher than CPI inflation of 1.6% in the same time frame.

    The rest of the report can be found here.
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    This is probably one of the strongest reports in the past two years, given the upward revisions from previous months and the rise in earnings. YoY, average hourly earnings have increased 2.1% year over year, which is actually higher than CPI inflation of 1.6% in the same time frame.

    The rest of the report can be found here.
    As usual, you (and other Keynesians/big government lovers) refuse to look past the headlines.

    Check the household survey.

    Number of additional Americans employed...JUST 4,000!!!


    Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted


    Then, check the number of full time Americans employed.

    150,000 fewer Americans were full time employed.

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators


    This is not a great report...it is, IMO, a lousy one.
    Last edited by DA60; 12-05-14 at 10:43 AM.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    As usual, you (and other Keynesians/big government lovers) refuse to look past the headlines.

    Check the household survey.

    Number of Additional Americans employed...JUST 4,000!!!


    Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted


    Then, check the number of full time Americans employed.

    150,000 fewer Americans were full time employed.

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators


    This is not a great report...it is, IMO, a lousy one.
    labor force went up 119,000, employed went up 4,000, unemployed went up 115,000. Must be nice to pick which report you pull your data from for you headline.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    labor force went up 119,000, employed went up 4,000, unemployed went up 115,000. Where did they get the 321k number?
    You're using OLD math... you need to use common core math you see.
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Ockham View Post
    You're using OLD math... you need to use common core math you see.
    They use qualitative words like "bigger" and "smaller". Makes like lots more easier.
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Horribly bad numbers that will be twisted and celebrated by the mainstream media all day today.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    If we keep creating the same jobs we are creating now, it will take 10s of millions of more employment gains just to return average hourly wages to pre recession levels of 3.7%.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    labor force went up 119,000, employed went up 4,000, unemployed went up 115,000. Must be nice to pick which report you pull your data from for you headline.
    It's always the same. The official jobs numbers ("new jobs" or "jobs created") comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) a monthly survey of "about 144,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 554,000 individual worksites..."
    This is a payroll survey and excludes agriculture, the self employed, those working in other's houses, unpaid family workers, and those working under the table. The reference period is the Pay Period that includes the 12th of the month.

    The unemployment and other labor force data (including total employed) comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS) a monthly survey of 60,000 households (around 110,000-120,000 individuals) that includes everyone age 16 and older not in the military, prison, or an institution. The reference period is the Week that contains the 12th.

    So the CES employment data, while more limited, is much more accurate and is benchmarked each year to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The CES has always been the official jobs data.
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    It's always the same. The official jobs numbers ("new jobs" or "jobs created") comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) a monthly survey of "about 144,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 554,000 individual worksites..."
    This is a payroll survey and excludes agriculture, the self employed, those working in other's houses, unpaid family workers, and those working under the table. The reference period is the Pay Period that includes the 12th of the month.

    The unemployment and other labor force data (including total employed) comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS) a monthly survey of 60,000 households (around 110,000-120,000 individuals) that includes everyone age 16 and older not in the military, prison, or an institution. The reference period is the Week that contains the 12th.

    So the CES employment data, while more limited, is much more accurate and is benchmarked each year to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The CES has always been the official jobs data.
    Oh, come on now.

    You know full well that your statement is impossible to prove. You would have to have the actual, 100% accurate number to compare it to, but that is presently impossible to calculate.
    The BLS says the CES it is more accurate based on it's calculations...which means virtually nothing since they came up with the calculation process and it is NOT an exact science.

    Plus, the CES uses all kinds of models and guesstimates (like the Net Birth/Death model...which even the BLS admits is often wrong).

    Asking a bunch of businesses how many people they hired or fired and then putting your own estimates and models to those numbers is hardly an accurate way to measure employment.

    It's a way (like the household survey)...nothing more.

    And it is impossible to know how accurate it is. You can guess, hope, prey, estimate how accurate it is. But you cannot know.

    So I strongly suggest to you that in the future you do not make matter-of-fact statements that you should know full well are impossible to prove...just a suggestion.
    Last edited by DA60; 12-05-14 at 01:03 PM.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    You know full well that your statement is impossible to prove.
    Do you know how to respond to a counter-position without invoking an argument from ignorance fallacy? The CES survey is more accurate because it draws from a much larger sample size. This is a fundamental principle of statistics; as the sample size increases, the ability to accurately depict the central tendency increases.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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