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Thread: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

  1. #61
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    So the second biggest job creation industry was in retail and for this entire year, the biggest job creator was the fast food industry. I'd say that that isn't a good thing... at all. Toss in that the labor participation rate is still at a 36 year low (Labor Force Participation Remains at 36-Year Low | CNS News), you've got a problem on your hands.
    And what industry do you believe that job growth should be?

    I think it should be in the industries that have the most demand. Seems to me that it is in the right industries. Long term, we will continue to manufacture more and more products with fewer and fewer people, so the growth ain't gonna be in manufacturing, even if our manufacturing sector continues to produce more. This trend didn't just start under Obama, it's been happening for decades. It's perfectly normal and natural that the most new jobs are created in the sectors with the most demand.

    The lfpr has little to do with anything. The prosperity of a country isn't determined by it's lfpr, it's determined by it's GDP/citizen. The lfpr is what it is, and it's a flawed metric that is based on the expectation that my 99 year old grandmother should be working, and that all 16 year old high school kids should be working. This country existed for 202 years with a lower labor force participation rate than what we have now. It's a non-issue.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    So the second biggest job creation industry was in retail and for this entire year, the biggest job creator was the fast food industry. I'd say that that isn't a good thing... at all. Toss in that the labor participation rate is still at a 36 year low (Labor Force Participation Remains at 36-Year Low | CNS News), you've got a problem on your hands.

    Shhhh......we're not supposed to dig any deeper than knee jerk celebrations over superficial data.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by BringIt View Post
    You’re kidding. Right? If you can’t see where we are headed, then you are part of the problem.

    Washington’s failure to contain entitlement spending is biting into the nation’s long-term fiscal outlook, the Congressional Budget Office warned in a Tuesday report that found the nation’s debt would jump to 106 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2039.

    Just Google: “CBO says US deficit levels are unsustainable” and see what pops up. Or you can go to one of the latest CBO reports here:

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471

    In part, it states:
    “CBO has extrapolated its baseline projections through 2039 (and, with even greater uncertainty, through later decades) by producing an extended baseline that generally reflects current law. The extended baseline projections show a substantial imbalance in the federal budget over the long term, with revenues falling well short of spending (see the figure below). As a result, budget deficits are projected to rise steadily and, by 2039, to push federal debt held by the public up to a percentage of GDP seen only once before in U.S. history (just after World War II). The harm that such growing debt would cause to the economy is not factored into CBO’s detailed long-term projections but is considered in further analysis presented in this report.”




    Federal spending would increase to 26 percent of GDP by 2039 under the assumptions of the extended baseline, CBO projects, compared with 21 percent in 2013 and an average of 20½ percent over the past 40 years. That increase reflects the following projected paths for various types of federal spending if current laws remained generally unchanged (see the figure below):


    • • Federal spending for Social Security and the government’s major health care programs—Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act—would rise sharply, to a total of 14 percent of GDP by 2039, twice the 7 percent average seen over the past 40 years. That boost in spending is expected to occur because of the aging of the population, growth in per capita spending on health care, and an expansion of federal health care programs.
    • • The government’s net interest payments would grow to 4½ percent of GDP by 2039, compared with an average of 2 percent over the past four decades. Net interest payments would be larger than that average mainly because federal debt would be much larger.
    • • In contrast, total spending on everything other than Social Security, the major health care programs, and net interest payments would decline to 7 percent of GDP by 2039—well below the 11 percent average of the past 40 years and a smaller share of the economy than at any time since the late 1930s.



    The current level of debt held by the public is almost twice what it was in 2008, and matched in U.S. history only by a brief span around World War II.




    Maybe you haven't noticed, a year or two of non negative spending does not negate the 18 trillion debt. Right?




    Also See Debt Clock: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
    So can you show me exactly where the CBO claims that our debt is unsustainable or that it will become unsustainable? Nothing you said indicates that. And while you are at it, can you tell where the CBO recommends spending cuts or tax hikes during a weak economic recovery, could't seem to find that either (which are the only two options to having a lower deficit).

    Would you care to discus the “off the books” quantitative easing [QE] that Obama has been pumping since he took office? Obama is mortgaging our future to make his economy look good in the short term. When the pumping stops… the next Administration will be faced with the inevitable results… hyperinflation and market turmoil.
    QE was done by the Federal Reserve. The Fed operates fairly autonomously, and without intervention from the POTUS. The head of the fed during the time period that QE was going on was selected by Bush, not Obama. The Obama appointee tapered QE immediately and then ended it within a few months of taking office.

    To whatever degree that the fed is part of our government, QE hasn't created more government debt, it's done the opposite of that. The fed does not borrow money, it lends money. I think you are confused as to what the fed is and how it operates.
    Last edited by imagep; 12-06-14 at 10:31 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  4. #64
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Shhhh......we're not supposed to dig any deeper than knee jerk celebrations over superficial data.
    Apparently, because that's all you guys ever do.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  5. #65
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    And what industry do you believe that job growth should be?

    I think it should be in the industries that have the most demand. Seems to me that it is in the right industries. Long term, we will continue to manufacture more and more products with fewer and fewer people, so the growth ain't gonna be in manufacturing, even if our manufacturing sector continues to produce more. This trend didn't just start under Obama, it's been happening for decades. It's perfectly normal and natural that the most new jobs are created in the sectors with the most demand.

    The lfpr has little to do with anything. The prosperity of a country isn't determined by it's lfpr, it's determined by it's GDP/citizen. The lfpr is what it is, and it's a flawed metric that is based on the expectation that my 99 year old grandmother should be working, and that all 16 year old high school kids should be working. This country existed for 202 years with a lower labor force participation rate than what we have now. It's a non-issue.
    I think it should be in industries that are going to have good-paying jobs. Fast food is not one of those industries.

    You bring up prosperity and what not, but the thing is that people aren't going to be considering themselves prosperous when they can't find a job. It really is an issue because it notes that the unemployment rate is actually larger than what is being stated and in a way shows some of the problems with the economy as it is so difficult to find a job that many people who have looked for over a year have just given up.
    "And in the end, we were all just humans, drunk on the idea that love, only love, could heal our brokenness."

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Shhhh......we're not supposed to dig any deeper than knee jerk celebrations over superficial data.
    I didn't know that! Oh no! I guess the men in black suits are coming for me!
    "And in the end, we were all just humans, drunk on the idea that love, only love, could heal our brokenness."

  7. #67
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    I think it should be in industries that are going to have good-paying jobs. Fast food is not one of those industries.
    So you think we need more government employees? Or that the government should take over private industry and tell them to pay more, instead of allowing the free market to make these decisions based upon supply and demand? I didn't realize that you were a socialist.


    You bring up prosperity and what not, but the thing is that people aren't going to be considering themselves prosperous when they can't find a job. It really is an issue because it notes that the unemployment rate is actually larger than what is being stated and in a way shows some of the problems with the economy as it is so difficult to find a job that many people who have looked for over a year have just given up.
    the unemployment rate is what it is. The way it is computed today is identical to the way it was computed under Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  8. #68
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    I didn't know that! Oh no! I guess the men in black suits are coming for me!
    Nope. You are safe. You haven't even scratched the surface of reality. All you have done is to repeat the party line, and that's what those government men want you to do.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  9. #69
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    And what industry do you believe that job growth should be?
    Small farming and food processing. The reason fast food is growing is because people are looking to eat faster and cheaper. Having more carry out, higher quality but still affordable choices would be a way to grow off that--drive through Applebees type places where people would not have to go in or wait. Likewise, when people do cook at home, having more competitively priced local grown foods would be nice for many. On the production side, we still produce a lot of the world's food so as the developing nations develop, we could see if we could have products with longer shelf life that we can export already processed.

    I think it should be in the industries that have the most demand. Seems to me that it is in the right industries. Long term, we will continue to manufacture more and more products with fewer and fewer people, so the growth ain't gonna be in manufacturing, even if our manufacturing sector continues to produce more. This trend didn't just start under Obama, it's been happening for decades. It's perfectly normal and natural that the most new jobs are created in the sectors with the most demand.
    Back to food production. Machines do a lot already, but machines need people to fill them, operate them, unclog them, product test/quality control, etc. They are decent paying jobs. No matter how you automate that industry, you still need workers.

    The lfpr has little to do with anything. The prosperity of a country isn't determined by it's lfpr, it's determined by it's GDP/citizen. The lfpr is what it is, and it's a flawed metric that is based on the expectation that my 99 year old grandmother should be working, and that all 16 year old high school kids should be working. This country existed for 202 years with a lower labor force participation rate than what we have now. It's a non-issue.
    GDP/citizen is not that important and for most of our nation's 225 year history, the lower labor participation rate was because people were raising their own food to survive and not needing the dollar menu to do it.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    So can you show me exactly where the CBO claims that our debt is unsustainable or that it will become unsustainable? Nothing you said indicates that.
    I can lead you to the information, but I can’t make you read.

    Please note: In my previous post I suggested…
    Quote Originally Posted by BringIt View Post
    Just Google: “CBO says US deficit levels are unsustainable” and see what pops up. Or you can go to one of the latest CBO reports here:

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471
    ------------------------------------

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    And while you are at it, can you tell where the CBO recommends spending cuts or tax hikes during a weak economic recovery…
    Now that’s a trick question. Everybody with any basic knowledge of how our system works knows that the CBO “DOES NOT” make recommendations.

    Here is a quote from their website: https://www.cbo.gov/about/overview

    Since 1975,*CBO*has produced independent analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. CBO is strictly nonpartisan; conducts objective, impartial analysis; and hires its employees solely on the basis of professional competence without regard to political affiliation.*CBO does not make policy recommendations, and each report and cost estimate summarizes the methodology underlying the analysis.
    (Emphasis is mine)

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    And while you are at it, can you tell where the CBO recommends spending cuts or tax hikes during a weak economic recovery, could't seem to find that either (which are the only two options to having a lower deficit).
    Your response typifies a fundamental difference between liberals and conservatives. Conservatives do not believe that ‘Spending cuts and tax hikes are THE ONLY TWO OPTIONS’.

    Most conservatives understand that tax cuts stimulate both revenue and growth in our economy.

    In fact, every case over the last 60 years, major tax cuts have more than paid for themselves. In fact, every major tax cut since JFK has been followed by substantial increases in revenue, not to mention solid economic growth.* Moreover, total federal revenue rose at a faster rate after each of those tax cuts than it did before them. Anyone can confirm these basic facts for themselves by checking federal budget data and economic indicators before and after major tax cuts (see, for example, Federal Budget Data, Data 360 Unemployment U.S., and Total Economy Database).
    Wake Up America!

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