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Thread: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

  1. #51
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    Don't let the facts get in your way.


    What facts ?

    The FACT that Full time positions dropped by 150 thousand ?

    Or that the Household survey only shows a seasonally adjusted increase of just 4000 new Americans employed ?

    Or that orders from US manufacturers has fallen 3 consecutive months in a row ?

    Hey how about that Housing market ? Hit or miss for 6 years running. Must be Bush's fault.

    The reality is if you use an ounce of effort to look past the propaganda you will find that the economy is still on life support.

    All it needs to drive it into the ground is the the Business mandates from ObamaCare to kick in.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    We simply don't know how many were created or saved, and will never know.
    That’s a convenient excuse to avoid accountability. It sounds like something a politician would say when the results are detrimental or negative.
    Quick to claim credit for positive news… obfuscation when it’s bad.

    In response… I’ll just use your retort… “I guess you can try to rationalize and marginalize all the … economic news that you desire to, when it proves your ideology wrong, but maybe it would be wiser to modify your ideology.”

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    But do you really believe that if we had elected a different president, that any other president would have failed to attempt some sort of economic stimulous? I don’t.
    Of course any other candidate would have done something. Duh!
    But… would he have made the same mistakes? Taken actions based on the same false assumptions? Made the same missteps? Would the economy have turned the corner sooner?

    In my opinion… the economy has finally started to show signs of life in spite of this Administration’s actions, not because of their actions.


    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Our lfpr has stopped declining. So I can only assume that the increasing jobs numbers is a result of economic growth.
    Once again, the Labor Force Participation Rate has stopped it’s free fall in spite of this Administration’s actions, not because of their actions.

    In fact, it is my opinion that specific policies of this Administration has stimulated and fostered the trend in the Labor Force Participation and they are clearly to blame for the fact that it Remains at 36-Year Low.

    latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2004_2014_all_period_M11_data.gif
    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
    Wake Up America!

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    All it needs to drive it into the ground is the the Business mandates from ObamaCare to kick in.
    Open enrollment for 2015 (the year of the dreaded "business mandates"!) would've been well underway in most companies by November. In other words, the health plans companies will be providing under the employer mandate next year were already being offered--they just likely won't go into effect for another three weeks--to employees during the time period this job report covers.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    What facts ?

    The FACT that Full time positions dropped by 150 thousand ?

    Or that the Household survey only shows a seasonally adjusted increase of just 4000 new Americans employed ?

    Or that orders from US manufacturers has fallen 3 consecutive months in a row ?

    Hey how about that Housing market ? Hit or miss for 6 years running. Must be Bush's fault.

    The reality is if you use an ounce of effort to look past the propaganda you will find that the economy is still on life support.

    All it needs to drive it into the ground is the the Business mandates from ObamaCare to kick in.

    I agree with everything you posted here. Allow me to add my 2 cents...


    IMO, everyone is looking at the myopic view. Why isn't anyone asking; "What actions and initiatives are being taken to address the long term problems that we are facing in this uncertain world?"

    Unsustainable debt is at the top of the list. What happens if the US is faced with one or more large scale natural disasters. Or maybe a nuke or a dirty bomb, or two. How about a major disruption of our utilities and infrastructure. What about another major war? When we are stretched to the limit, it makes it harder to recover.

    Our foreign policies are in total disarray, we have lost our standing in the world order. We have lost and isolated our allies and emboldened our real enemies.

    And whatever happen to the American Dream? Why is it now "uncool" to be a Proud American? We are now led to believe that America is an evil oppressor, and nothing is mentioned about all of the good America does throughout the world?

    Why is this Administration intentionally pitting Americans against Americans? Black against White.

    What happened to the euphemism "loyal opposition"? Now, if you don't agree with the Administration you are considered the enemy. Targeted by the IRS.

    IMO, this Administration has done everything possible to endanger the long term survival of this once great nation.
    Wake Up America!

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by BringIt View Post
    Unsustainable debt is at the top of the list. What happens if the US is faced with one or more large scale natural disasters. Or maybe a nuke or a dirty bomb, or two. How about a major disruption of our utilities and infrastructure. What about another major war? When we are stretched to the limit, it makes it harder to recover.
    What leads you to believe that our debt level is unstainable? Or that we are stretched to the limit?

    As a percent of GDP, it's lower now than it was during WW2, and we won that war.

    Maybe you haven't noticed, but the rate of growth of our debt has been slowing for several years, as our GDP increases and the deficit falls. It's entirely possible, and likely, that the budget may be balanced within two or three years.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Greenbeard View Post
    Open enrollment for 2015 (the year of the dreaded "business mandates"!) would've been well underway in most companies by November. In other words, the health plans companies will be providing under the employer mandate next year were already being offered--they just likely won't go into effect for another three weeks--to employees during the time period this job report covers.

    Small businesses are responsible for the vast majority of job creation in America.

    Bussinesses surveyed by the FED admitted that the ACA was causing them not only to cut hours, and do away with full time positions, but forcing them to outsource.

    Instead of incentivizing more private sector investment into the economy that would lead to job creation, it throws a huge wet blanket on it.

    Large Corporations are now motivated to automate, outsource and sit on stagnant off-shore capital. And they can get access to very cheap credit to pay for all of this thanks to the FEDs perpetual QE.

    Small businesses cut hours and full time positions. 150,000 Full time positions were dropped in the latest jobs report.

    The increase in cost due to ObamaCare AND the Tax increases are simply passed onto the American consumer, the Middle class, who now have to pay higher premiums for overpriced insurance with coverage they'll never need.

    ObamaCare doesn't adversely affect the Rich or poor. The Rich can afford premium hikes and the poor qualify for Medicaid.

    It by design targets the discretionary income of Middle class Americans and it does it in a variety of ways

    Its a HORRIBLE law.

    It strips the Insurance companies ability to price policies based on actuarial tables and individual needs.

    The Democrats of-course tried to BS the American people into believing that this would lead to better and more affordable care.

    Government intervention into the private sector especially when its based on empty platitudes and LIES never produces anything positive let alone affordable.

    You think people would have learned that from Clintons " fair lending " initiative

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    What facts ?

    The FACT that Full time positions dropped by 150 thousand ?
    Yet they've increased by over 2.5 million in the past year. A few on this forum seem to dwell on monthly swings and ignore rather obvious trends in the right direction for their own political benefit.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    What facts ?

    The FACT that Full time positions dropped by 150 thousand ?
    month to month change for employed, usually work full time has a standard error of +/-408,859. At 90% confidence that gives us a margin of error of 1.645*408,859 = 672,572
    So the actual change was somewhere beteen -822,572 and +522,572

    Or that the Household survey only shows a seasonally adjusted increase of just 4000 new Americans employed ?
    Standard error of 254,406, margin of error of +/-403,692 so actual change was between -399,692 and +407,692
    Standard errors derived from Table 1-D

    Compare to the headline change in Nonfarm Payroll employment of +321,000 which has a standard error of +/-57,494, margin of error at +/-94,578 so the actual change was between +226,422 and +415,578
    Standard error from Table 3

    Which data are more reliable?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    What leads you to believe that our debt level is unattainable? Or that we are stretched to the limit?
    You’re kidding. Right? If you can’t see where we are headed, then you are part of the problem.

    Washington’s failure to contain entitlement spending is biting into the nation’s long-term fiscal outlook, the Congressional Budget Office warned in a Tuesday report that found the nation’s debt would jump to 106 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2039.

    Just Google: “CBO says US deficit levels are unsustainable” and see what pops up. Or you can go to one of the latest CBO reports here:

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45471

    In part, it states:

    “CBO has extrapolated its baseline projections through 2039 (and, with even greater uncertainty, through later decades) by producing an extended baseline that generally reflects current law. The extended baseline projections show a substantial imbalance in the federal budget over the long term, with revenues falling well short of spending (see the figure below). As a result, budget deficits are projected to rise steadily and, by 2039, to push federal debt held by the public up to a percentage of GDP seen only once before in U.S. history (just after World War II). The harm that such growing debt would cause to the economy is not factored into CBO’s detailed long-term projections but is considered in further analysis presented in this report.”




    Federal spending would increase to 26 percent of GDP by 2039 under the assumptions of the extended baseline, CBO projects, compared with 21 percent in 2013 and an average of 20½ percent over the past 40 years. That increase reflects the following projected paths for various types of federal spending if current laws remained generally unchanged (see the figure below):

    • • Federal spending for Social Security and the government’s major health care programs—Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act—would rise sharply, to a total of 14 percent of GDP by 2039, twice the 7 percent average seen over the past 40 years. That boost in spending is expected to occur because of the aging of the population, growth in per capita spending on health care, and an expansion of federal health care programs.
    • • The government’s net interest payments would grow to 4½ percent of GDP by 2039, compared with an average of 2 percent over the past four decades. Net interest payments would be larger than that average mainly because federal debt would be much larger.
    • • In contrast, total spending on everything other than Social Security, the major health care programs, and net interest payments would decline to 7 percent of GDP by 2039—well below the 11 percent average of the past 40 years and a smaller share of the economy than at any time since the late 1930s.

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    As a percent of GDP, it's lower now than it was during WW2, and we won that war.
    The current level of debt held by the public is almost twice what it was in 2008, and matched in U.S. history only by a brief span around World War II.


    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Maybe you haven't noticed, but the rate of growth of our debt has been slowing for several years, as our GDP increases and the deficit falls. It's entirely possible, and likely, that the budget may be balanced within two or three years.
    Maybe you haven't noticed, a year or two of non negative spending does not negate the 18 trillion debt. Right?





    Also See Debt Clock: U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time


    Would you care to discus the “off the books” quantitative easing [QE] that Obama has been pumping since he took office? Obama is mortgaging our future to make his economy look good in the short term. When the pumping stops… the next Administration will be faced with the inevitable results… hyperinflation and market turmoil.
    Wake Up America!

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    So the second biggest job creation industry was in retail and for this entire year, the biggest job creator was the fast food industry. I'd say that that isn't a good thing... at all. Toss in that the labor participation rate is still at a 36 year low (Labor Force Participation Remains at 36-Year Low | CNS News), you've got a problem on your hands.
    "And in the end, we were all just humans, drunk on the idea that love, only love, could heal our brokenness."

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