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Thread: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Do you know how to respond to a counter-position without invoking an argument from ignorance fallacy? The CES survey is more accurate because it draws from a much larger sample size. This is a fundamental principle of statistics; as the sample size increases, the ability to accurately depict the central tendency increases.


    More accurate?

    So, you are saying that the CES is 80 TIMES more accurate then the household survey (321K to 4K)? That the household survey was off by over 98%?!?

    Are you really that far gone on the 'rose colored glasses' train?

    I guess so.

    Noted.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 12-05-14 at 01:18 PM.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Oh, come on now.

    You know full well that your statement is impossible to prove. You would have to have the actual, 100% accurate number to compare it to, but that is presently impossible to calculate.
    While not 100%, because there are always flaws in every measuring techniqe, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages is a COUNT (not a survey) of businesses covered by Unemployment Insurance and of government agencies, so it's as close to 100% as is possible.

    The BLS says it is more accurate based on it's calculations...which means virtually nothing since they came up with the calculation process and it is NOT an exact science.
    Much larger sample size, and benchmarked to the actual numbers from a near total census. How could it not be more accurate?

    Plus, the CES uses all kinds of models and guesstimates (like the Net Birth/Death model...which even the BLS admits is often wrong).
    Each month, approximately 554,000 worksites are surveyed. In order to aggregate that to the total number of employed, you have to use the total number of worksites in each industry. But new businesses pop up every month and other businesses fail, so how do you know how many businesses there are? You can just ignore births and deaths and use the number from a set date, but that's obviously inaccurate. Or you can use a birth/death model based on previous observed patterns and trends. This is better, though obviously not perfect (which is why benchmarking to the QCEW is still necessary).

    During the recession, the birh/death model, which was updated yearly, was clearly off, so BLS changed to a quarterly basis of updating the model.

    The Household survey does a similar thing, using estimates of population growth. Those are adjusted every January, but the previous numbers are not revised....it's just a jump between December and January data.

    Asking a bunch of businesses how many people they hired or fired and then putting your own estimates and models to those numbers is hardly an accurate way to measure employment.
    That's a differnt survey. The CES asks "How many people were on your payroll for the pay period that contains the 12th of the month". And that's aggregated out based on a model of current number of businesses.

    What do you suggest would be more accurate?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    While not 100%, because there are always flaws in every measuring techniqe, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages is a COUNT (not a survey) of businesses covered by Unemployment Insurance and of government agencies, so it's as close to 100% as is possible.


    Much larger sample size, and benchmarked to the actual numbers from a near total census. How could it not be more accurate?

    Each month, approximately 554,000 worksites are surveyed. In order to aggregate that to the total number of employed, you have to use the total number of worksites in each industry. But new businesses pop up every month and other businesses fail, so how do you know how many businesses there are? You can just ignore births and deaths and use the number from a set date, but that's obviously inaccurate. Or you can use a birth/death model based on previous observed patterns and trends. This is better, though obviously not perfect (which is why benchmarking to the QCEW is still necessary).

    During the recession, the birh/death model, which was updated yearly, was clearly off, so BLS changed to a quarterly basis of updating the model.

    The Household survey does a similar thing, using estimates of population growth. Those are adjusted every January, but the previous numbers are not revised....it's just a jump between December and January data.

    That's a differnt survey. The CES asks "How many people were on your payroll for the pay period that contains the 12th of the month". And that's aggregated out based on a model of current number of businesses.

    What do you suggest would be more accurate?
    You did no say it is probably more accurate (which I still do not agree with).

    You said it 'is' more accurate...and that is impossible to know.

    I am not going to explain statistics and mathematics and physics to you...your matter-of-fact statement is IMPOSSIBLE to prove. Period. This should be obvious.

    Come on man, you went too far. You exaggerated. We all do it. No big deal. If you had said 'I believe it is more accurate'...I might not have said a thing.


    That was the only point I was making (that and an indirect point at how much the Bureau of Laboured Statistics sucks, nothing personal. But w have been down there before).

    We are done here, for now.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 12-05-14 at 01:32 PM.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    You said it 'is' more accurate...and that is impossible to know.
    Everything is impossible to know.
    "I do not claim that every incident in the history of empire can be explained in directly economic terms. Economic interests are filtered through a political process, policies are implemented by a complex state apparatus, and the whole system generates its own momentum."

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    U.S. factory orders fall for third straight month

    '(Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a third straight month in October, pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

    The Commerce Department said on Friday new orders for manufactured goods declined 0.7 percent after a revised 0.5 percent drop in September.'

    U.S. factory orders fall for third straight month | Reuters

    So, factory orders have fallen for three months in a row?

    Oh yeah...America is just humming along.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    U.S. factory orders fall for third straight month

    '(Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a third straight month in October, pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

    The Commerce Department said on Friday new orders for manufactured goods declined 0.7 percent after a revised 0.5 percent drop in September.'

    U.S. factory orders fall for third straight month | Reuters

    So, factory orders have fallen for three months in a row?

    Oh yeah...America is just humming along.
    I'll just this, regardless of the report this last election, the voters didn't look at all the rosy reports or buy into the economy is improving. What they did was look around, at themselves, their families, their neighbors and friends and assessed their own situation and voted accordingly.

    45% of those who voted said the economy was their number one issue. 78% of those who voted said they were worried about their and this nation's financial future. Now those are how the people look at these things, how they feel. Not how a statistical report said or was spun if it was. This last election was decided upon each individuals own pocket book and how they saw the future, their own and friends and family financial future.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Btw, according to the NOT seasonally adjusted household survey, there were actually 270,000 FEWER Americans employed in November compared to October.

    Plus a whopping (again NOT seasonally adjusted) 735,000(!) less Americans employed in November compared to October.

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

    This report just gets uglier and uglier.
    Last edited by DA60; 12-05-14 at 02:08 PM.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Btw, according to the NOT seasonally adjusted household survey, there were actually 270,000 FEWER Americans employed in November compared to October.

    Plus a whopping (again NOT seasonally adjusted) 735,000(!) less Americans employed in November compared to October.

    Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

    This report just gets uglier and uglier.
    I'd have to agree. In addition, I've have to agree that these numbers will be proclaimed as positive with tortured reasoning and justification by the Biased Lame Stream Media, in support of Obama and the very programs and policies that have made this recovery as tepid and stretched out as it has been, all to be gobbled up and accepted as truth and fact by the Obama and party faithful, without reasoning and further, more detailed inspection.

    But then, what did you expect from the ideologues in the electorate, in the party, and in the Lame Stream Media?
    Disinformation campaign? The Russian collusion meme pushed by the 'news' media, behaving as a political propaganda organ, hell bent to destroy a legitimately elected president to implement his agenda per the votes of the same electorate. Reference The Big Lie Reference Goebbels

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    You did no say it is probably more accurate (which I still do not agree with).

    You said it 'is' more accurate...and that is impossible to know.

    I am not going to explain statistics and mathematics and physics to you...your matter-of-fact statement is IMPOSSIBLE to prove. Period. This should be obvious.
    No it's not impossible to prove. The Household survey samples approximately 0.05% of the population. the Establishment survey samples approximately 32% of employed people. There is no doubt that that much larger a sample is going to be more accurate. That's basic math. Standard error for Household Survey employment is about +/- 300,000 and for the Establishment survey it's +/- 74,000 While statistics is not an exact science, it is a science, and that large a difference in sample size is inarguabley more accurate.


    And that's not even including non-sample error, which will be more prevelant in the Household Survey.



    Come on man, you went too far. You exaggerated. We all do it. No big deal. If you had said 'I believe it is more accurate'...I might not have said a thing.
    It's not a question. It IS more accurate. But go ahead, and show your math that a sample of .05% of the universe is not for sure less accurate than a sample of 32% of the universe. Or that the standard errors are wrong.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Great jobs news.

    I can tell you that in my field, I've been getting bombarded with recruiter calls and they tell me that my sector in pharma actually has a negative unemployment rate. More positions than qualified candidates. That hasn't happened in years.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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