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Thread: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

  1. #111
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I didn't know that there was an anti-war movement.
    there isn't much of one now. it used to be all the rage, though. i wonder if it's because the president is a Democrat now.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    but were you debunking the monthly reports regularly on message boards in the mid 2000s?
    No.

    My interest in them did not start until after the 'Great Recession'. Like most people (it seems), I took them at more-or-less face value up until then.


    If your question really is - did I knock them when Bush was Prez? No.

    But I think GW Bush (and Obama) was a horrific POTUS and that both parties are worse then useless.
    Last edited by DA60; 12-08-14 at 02:21 PM.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    No.

    My interest in them did not start until after the 'Great Recession'. Like most people (it seems), I took them at more-or-less face value up until then.


    If your question really is - did I knock them when Bush was Prez? No.

    But I think GW Bush (and Obama) was a horrific POTUS and that both parties are worse then useless.
    yeah, it's been a while since the two party duopoly produced good results for the US.

  4. #114
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Straight up, I studied economics during the mid to late 1980's when I was in college, never worked in that field and lost all interest until the Great Recession.

    It was only due to a personal survival need that my interest became renewed. In the fall of 2008 I was trying to figure out how all of this was going to effect my business, and trying to come up with a strategy to survive.

    If there was any good that came out of this recession, it's probably that a lot of people started to become interested in economics and politics, for the same reason that I did.
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  5. #115
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by BringIt View Post
    Are you saying this 4+ Trillion dollar pumping of money into our economy since Obama took office was Bush’s fault.
    Reserves held by the Fed aren't "pumped into the economy." They're pretty much sitting there, not doing much of anything, except making it cheap to borrow. It won't hurt the economy or the government's balance sheet, unless someone orders the Fed to sell those bonds and assets at a major loss.


    Oh Really. Is that because she has -all of a sudden- realized that all of her previous votes in favor of pumping were wrong?
    Apparently, it's because she believes that QE is no longer necessary, and unlike her predecessors, focuses more on factors like unemployment, discouraged workers, time out of work force etc.


    In some perverted way, I can see why a biased defender of this Administration’s economic policies would make such a fringe statement…
    I'm pretty sure imagep isn't an Obama defender.


    Obviously, QE has a major effect on our economy. That’s the reason behind doing it in the first place. Right? Can we agree on that much?
    Yeah, not so much.

    It makes borrowing cheaper, but it is arguable that this wound up helping the economy much. It seems like it's not doing much except feeding another data point to the already-frazzled brains of equity traders.


    Assets flowing from QE onto the Fed's balance sheet are now the equivalent of one-fifth of US GDP. Meaning, the FED is pumping money into the economy by buying bonds and treasuries to falsely prop it up, artificially stimulate it, and buy down inflation.
    lol

    You do realize that people have spent years claiming that this type of Fed activity will cause hyperinflation, right? Just checking.


    At some point the negative downside to QE will start to creep in as the Fed tries to ween the fake ‘propped up’ economy off of the endless supply of money that the Fed has been, in effect, electronically printing.
    The negatives will really only kick in if politicians force the Fed to sell the reserve assets at a loss.


    Example: One clearly visible side effect of QE is Market Growth, not built on fundamentals....
    There is a little bit of that, mostly that corporations can use cheap credit for stock buybacks. At the same time, companies are seeing record profitability, which obviously has some effect on stock prices....


    When the original QE ended, the market withdrew and it stymied growth in the entire economy.
    Yeah, not so much. The correlation is not as strong as your oversimplified graph suggests. In particular there doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between QE and GDP growth. GDP growth stalled during QE2, went up after QE2 ended, dropped in Q4 2013 for no reason connected to QE, and so forth.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    like i said, i'm sure that 321,000 jobs is terrible somehow. just out of curiosity, how long have you been debunking job reports? i think i've noticed you in the monthly threads before, but i wanted to know a little more about your personal debunking history.
    I'm guessing since about January, 2009. But that's just a WAG.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    Reserves held by the Fed aren't "pumped into the economy." They're pretty much sitting there, not doing much of anything, except making it cheap to borrow. It won't hurt the economy or the government's balance sheet, unless someone orders the Fed to sell those bonds and assets at a major loss.



    Apparently, it's because she believes that QE is no longer necessary, and unlike her predecessors, focuses more on factors like unemployment, discouraged workers, time out of work force etc.



    I'm pretty sure imagep isn't an Obama defender.



    Yeah, not so much.

    It makes borrowing cheaper, but it is arguable that this wound up helping the economy much. It seems like it's not doing much except feeding another data point to the already-frazzled brains of equity traders.



    lol

    You do realize that people have spent years claiming that this type of Fed activity will cause hyperinflation, right? Just checking.



    The negatives will really only kick in if politicians force the Fed to sell the reserve assets at a loss.



    There is a little bit of that, mostly that corporations can use cheap credit for stock buybacks. At the same time, companies are seeing record profitability, which obviously has some effect on stock prices....



    Yeah, not so much. The correlation is not as strong as your oversimplified graph suggests. In particular there doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between QE and GDP growth. GDP growth stalled during QE2, went up after QE2 ended, dropped in Q4 2013 for no reason connected to QE, and so forth.


    That massive stack of stagnant reserves is putting downward pressure on interest rates.

    It will continue to put downward pressure on interest rates for the foreseeable future.

    The aspect of QE that drives down interest rates is here to stay for years.

    Thats because the Fed is stuck with their MBSs purchases.

    IF the FED sold them off they would cause a spike in interest rates and lose hundreds of Billions on their MBS purchases.

    If they hold onto them and allow these Securities to mature then they are setting themselves up for a huge loss when Interest rates inevitably rise on their own

    Then again, these are GSE Securities. How does a Security with underlying assets in default mature ?

  8. #118
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    like i said, i'm sure that 321,000 jobs is terrible somehow. just out of curiosity, how long have you been debunking job reports? i think i've noticed you in the monthly threads before, but i wanted to know a little more about your personal debunking history.
    They're not terrible for the people who have jobs, but they're not the type of jobs the economy needs.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    I'm pretty sure imagep isn't an Obama defender.
    I'm definately not an Obama supporter, didn't vote for him either time. I could write pages and pages about the things that he has screwed up.

    However sometimes I find myself defending him against BS arguments and claims.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by WallStreetVixen View Post
    They're not terrible for the people who have jobs, but they're not the type of jobs the economy needs.
    what's your opinion about labor organization?

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