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Thread: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

  1. #101
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    like i said, i'm sure that 321,000 jobs is terrible somehow. just out of curiosity, how long have you been debunking job reports? i think i've noticed you in the monthly threads before, but i wanted to know a little more about your personal debunking history.
    I suspect that a lot of people started doing this the first month that we had positive job growth after Obama took office.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  2. #102
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by BringIt View Post
    If we divide a Trillion dollars by all of the jobs that this Administration claims that they have created with that stimulus... Then how much did each of these jobs actually end up costing the taxpayers per job?
    The Obama stimulus act cost about $831 billion. Half of that was tax cuts. It is estimated that 1.6 million jobs were generated or maintained by the stimulus between 2009 and 2012.

    If we mistakenly classify all of that spending as "going to jobs," we'd get $173,000 per year. Since it also went to infrastructure and other material goods, the spending is not all that bad.


    How effective was the government with that redistribution?
    Reasonably effective. Not perfect, but nothing is -- not even the most ruthlessly efficient private business is 100% effective.


    Is it fair for the Administration to brag that these job number increases are a result of fundamentals enhanced by their superior economic policy decisions? Or should they just admit that these numbers were bought and paid for by the taxpayers?
    1) The stimulus largely ended 2 years ago.
    2) The administration doesn't credit November 2014 job numbers to the 2009 stimulus.
    3) The numbers weren't "bought and paid for by taxpayers." In fact, public sector hiring went down for several years, and is well below 2007 numbers.


    And how come no one is talking about how far these [inflated] job numbers are below the Administration's original projections?
    Which projections?


    Are the wonderful job numbers touted by the Administration the result of fundamental growth or are they marginalized by the expanding population growth and the resultant natural expansion of the jobs market?
    Job numbers need to keep up with population. Population growth also didn't stop in 2007, and restart in Q4 2014.


    When this Administration brags about all of these low level jobs being created, do they mention that most of them are going to those individuals that Obama is inviting across the open boarder?
    Last I checked, undocumented immigrants aren't included in unemployment stats.

    It also isn't clear these are all "low level jobs." From the BLS report:
    Professional and business services = 86,000 jobs, mostly high tech
    Retail = 50,000 jobs
    Health care = 29,000 including 7,000 doctors
    Manufacturing - 28,000 jobs
    Finance - 20,000 jobs
    Transportation = 17,000
    Food = 27,000

    Sounds like a pretty good chunk of the added jobs are decent. They certainly aren't all low-wage, low-quality jobs.


    Does anyone care that -- For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce?
    That statistic is rather out of date.

    In January 2014, Jeff Sessions claimed 347,000 people left the workforce and 74,000 joined. He's ignoring how the average for a few years was closer to 200,000 per month, i.e. that December was on the low side.

    That is certainly not the case now. The number of jobs created are about equal to those leaving -- including those who go to school, are disabled or retired. The number of discouraged workers didn't change in November, and labor force participation didn't change.

    Nice try on the scare-mongering though.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    like i said, i'm sure that 321,000 jobs is terrible somehow. just out of curiosity, how long have you been debunking job reports? i think i've noticed you in the monthly threads before, but i wanted to know a little more about your personal debunking history.
    This jobs report is actually 1,060,000 better than the one six years ago when we were mired in a negative GDP swoon.

    The debunkers as you call them will continue to be out in full force until Obama is gone.

    Dems continue to lose the messaging war on every issue by not forcefully defending the these positive numbers
    Physics is Phun

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    ...
    • Health care = 29,000 including 7,000 doctors
    That's impossible. I had more than one conservative to tell me that all doctors were going to quit doctoring when Obamacare took effect.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  5. #105
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by NIMBY View Post
    ...

    Dems continue to lose the messaging war on every issue by not forcefully defending the these positive numbers
    I agree, and that makes me wonder how they can be so incompetent.

    Although there are slightly more people who identify with the dem part than the republican party, 90% of all the political facebook posts I see are made or "shared" by conservatives.

    Are most liberals just too stupid to utilize the internet?

    I also suspect that if dems became a little more propaganda savvy, they could destroy the reputation and trust in many conservative talking heads who have predicted all sorts of devistating consequences of liberal policies, that haven't come true.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  6. #106
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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I suspect that a lot of people started doing this the first month that we had positive job growth after Obama took office.
    i'm simply stunned by this. next, you're going to tell me that the anti-war movement collapsed about the same time. there has to be some connection. let me think on it for a bit.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    i'm simply stunned by this. next, you're going to tell me that the anti-war movement collapsed about the same time. there has to be some connection. let me think on it for a bit.
    I didn't know that there was an anti-war movement.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    like i said, i'm sure that 321,000 jobs is terrible somehow. just out of curiosity, how long have you been debunking job reports? i think i've noticed you in the monthly threads before, but i wanted to know a little more about your personal debunking history.
    I look at the BLS report and if I see something fishy, I say something.

    Last month, I saw nothing fishy (in that the details generally supported the headlines), so I said nothing.

    Now, do I trust the government numbers are designed to give an accurate representation? No. I do NOT think they are flat out lying (for one thing, they are not that stupid). But I think they set up their statistical analysis to paint a generally rosier picture then actually exists...no matter which party is in power. Especially for unemployment and inflation and to a lesser extent, GDP.

    But since they are all we have (outside of ADP and one or two other lesser sources), I have to go with them.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by NIMBY View Post
    This jobs report is actually 1,060,000 better than the one six years ago when we were mired in a negative GDP swoon.

    The debunkers as you call them will continue to be out in full force until Obama is gone.

    Dems continue to lose the messaging war on every issue by not forcefully defending the these positive numbers
    Dems have been losing the messaging war for a long time now. think about this : we're the only first world country where you can be bankrupted just because you got sick. the Dems couldn't even message well enough to get us a public option. and not only did the Republicans get the plan that their side designed, they also got to get angry enough about it to win two elections while trying to repeal it five thousand or so times. now THAT is something.

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    Re: Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    I look at the BLS report and if I see something fishy, I say something.

    Last month, I saw nothing fishy (in that the details generally supported the headlines), so I said nothing.

    Now, do I trust the government numbers are designed to give an accurate representation? No. I do NOT think they are flat out lying (for one thing, they are not that stupid). But I think they set up their statistical analysis to paint a generally rosier picture then actually exists...no matter which party is in power. Especially for unemployment and inflation and to a lesser extent, GDP.

    But since they are all we have (outside of ADP and one or two other lesser sources), I have to go with them.
    but were you debunking the monthly reports regularly on message boards in the mid 2000s?

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