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Thread: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record[W:199]

  1. #201
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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Telling. I didn't mention hiding the decline, anyway. I mentioned a corrupt data base.
    No, you didn't mention it.
    You didn't read the article.
    Because the opinion piece you posted mentioned it. Are you sure it's me who needs to read it?


    The CRU has the largest and most utilized temperature data base in the world, and a portion of that data is simply made up. The only mention of the software involved is to assert that the data base didn't function properly unless data was provided for every site listed. Nice attempt to deflect and change the subject. And no, the CRU isn't the only source of data - just the source for NOAA, the IPCC, and the global temperature measurements supplied to agencies like the US National Weather Service for global temperature records
    No, you have it backwards. The US National Weather Service collects temperature data for the US. Because they own and operate all the machines in this country, and other nations have their own weather stations operated by their own weather services. I mean really, who believes the US NWS would farm that out to some British university?

    The CRU collects all that data and compiles an instrumental temperature record.

    There are other temperature records, like GISTemp and the satellite records, and they all match fine.
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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    It is sourced and footnoted to point out the level of consensus on AGW, that basically every major scientific society and organization on earth accepts the theory.

    In the end its all neither here nor there as its not like we are going to do anything about it.
    And not one mention of any dissent. Garbage like Naomi Oreski's "study" is presented with no mention of the controversy surrounding it's shoddy methodology.

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    No, you didn't mention it.

    Because the opinion piece you posted mentioned it. Are you sure it's me who needs to read it?
    Yep. Pretty sure you need to read it - again maybe. You noticed it was an opinion piece, but you somehow failed to notice the substance. That would be the actual words of the technician tasked with updating the CRU database. Since it was the point of the piece, I think you ought to re-read.

    No, you have it backwards. The US National Weather Service collects temperature data for the US. Because they own and operate all the machines in this country, and other nations have their own weather stations operated by their own weather services. I mean really, who believes the US NWS would farm that out to some British university?
    True, the NWS does own the equipment in most cases. What you're leaving out, and what is extremely important historically, is that the monitoring has historically been done by volunteers. Some of these volunteers are quite enthusiastic and responsible. Others aren't. There are huge holes in data reported. I think if you had cared to address such serious flaws, you would have noticed that such missing data is exactly what the technician is complaining about.

    The CRU collects all that data and compiles an instrumental temperature record.

    There are other temperature records, like GISTemp and the satellite records, and they all match fine.
    Oh, I'm sure the data is all in line with each reporting entity. Tell me though, exactly how historic data and trend lines can be established when the data is so ****ed up and incomplete that the technician is forced to just make the temperatures up for innumerable places, just as he readily admits the CRU had done repeatedly in the past? It can't be done with any credibility at all. This is simply a reflection of sloppy work and precisely the kind of inattentiveness that gives the entire effort a bad name, and understandably so. Though opinion, the author's conclusion is right on the mark.

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    Yep. Pretty sure you need to read it - again maybe. You noticed it was an opinion piece, but you somehow failed to notice the substance. That would be the actual words of the technician tasked with updating the CRU database. Since it was the point of the piece, I think you ought to re-read.



    True, the NWS does own the equipment in most cases. What you're leaving out, and what is extremely important historically, is that the monitoring has historically been done by volunteers. Some of these volunteers are quite enthusiastic and responsible. Others aren't. There are huge holes in data reported. I think if you had cared to address such serious flaws, you would have noticed that such missing data is exactly what the technician is complaining about.



    Oh, I'm sure the data is all in line with each reporting entity. Tell me though, exactly how historic data and trend lines can be established when the data is so ****ed up and incomplete that the technician is forced to just make the temperatures up for innumerable places, just as he readily admits the CRU had done repeatedly in the past? It can't be done with any credibility at all. This is simply a reflection of sloppy work and precisely the kind of inattentiveness that gives the entire effort a bad name, and understandably so. Though opinion, the author's conclusion is right on the mark.
    He probably read it, or skimmed through it, but it flew right over his head because it tells a story he doesn't want to hear. In the AGW world, the world temperature data for the past 100+ years is pristine with no mistakes or flaws. If it did have flaws that don't match the theory, the temperature record is simply "adjusted". Sometimes it's done by the climate scientists to ensure the data meets their theories and sometimes, as shown in this article, numbers are simply thrown into the database to fill up spaces by someone that does not have a clue.

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    And not one mention of any dissent. Garbage like Naomi Oreski's "study" is presented with no mention of the controversy surrounding it's shoddy methodology.
    Funny. Oreskes study has been reconfirmed by about three or four hat have been done afterward. One was even published in PNAS, a top journal of top journals.

    Thats probably because the 'controversy' about 'shoddy methodology' is only a controversy on blogs and the methodology is only trashed by people who have never published a study in their lives. But I guess thats good enough 'controversy' for some people if they dont have any critical thinking skills and an ideology to support...
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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    He probably read it, or skimmed through it, but it flew right over his head because it tells a story he doesn't want to hear. In the AGW world, the world temperature data for the past 100+ years is pristine with no mistakes or flaws. If it did have flaws that don't match the theory, the temperature record is simply "adjusted". Sometimes it's done by the climate scientists to ensure the data meets their theories and sometimes, as shown in this article, numbers are simply thrown into the database to fill up spaces by someone that does not have a clue.
    Yeah, what's missing is the dedication to recreate the data using everything at their disposal rather than simply throwing some numbers into the mix, or worse, throwing in numbers to help support a pre-determined outcome. This speaks of really poor science and professional discipline. If this is the level of effort they are delivering to the project, I want no part of it and will disregard their pronouncements. I have yet to hear the CRU admit their fraudulent figures and I haven't heard of any effort to clean the mess up. Seems like they're happy as clams with the crap they've accumulated.

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by KLATTU View Post
    Sure. mr . science denier.
    Here's triplesuper warmist Gavin Schmidt devoting a whole paper to the pause in global warming. ( or as he euphemistically calls it - a slown-lol)
    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo2105.html

    agin for the umptennth tiime- why are all these warmists writing articles and papers about the ein global warming if there isn't one?
    Perhaps it is because warming hasn't stopped and they want you to know it. I've been busy reading the latest about 2014. It is about to become the hottest year on record. Does that mean that warming has "paused" to you? We have passed 1 degree above the 1990 average and every year is getting worse. That is what happens when the Earth absorbs more heat than it loses. You keep setting record highs. How long can you keep denying what is right in front of your face?

    "What we saw in 2014 is consistent with what we expect from a changing climate. Record-breaking heat combined with torrential rainfall and floods destroyed livelihoods and ruined lives.
    "What is particularly unusual and alarming this year are the high temperatures of vast areas of the ocean surface, including in the Northern Hemisphere," said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

    NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    According to the organization, estimates for this year show the average air temperature over land and sea for January-October was about 1.03 degrees Fahrenheit (0.57 degrees Centigrade) above the average of 57.2 degrees F (14.00 degrees C) for the 1961-1990 reference period, and 0.16 degree F (0.09 degree C) above the average for the past 10 years.
    2014 may be the hottest year on record - CNN.com
    Last edited by iguanaman; 12-04-14 at 01:18 AM.

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Interesting. I just read a paper that claims the fluctuating population of polar bears is due to heavy spring ice, not depleted summer ice. It seems that heavy spring ice greatly affects ringed seal populations. Polar bears obtain about 80% of their weight gain following winter by gorging on ring seal pups in March through early May. If the ringed seal pups can't survive due to heavy sea ice, then the polar bear populations are affected.
    That would intuitively seem to make some sense, kind of like a rabbit-eating coyote population number following the rabbit population number cycle, and occasionally throw in a wild card deep snow year starving down the rabbits....

    I think that polar bears are pretty hard to count accurately , but I wouldn't quibble with the 20 to 25,000 popular number, since there seem to be so much political and media attention paid to the critter. There'a a lot of hype put to fragments of their studies, and decison based evidence gathering.

    You can ride the train up to see the open water polar bears.
    Train routes in the Prairies and Northern Manitoba | VIA Rail
    ( dress warm, expect delays (:

    The Manitoba innuit only shoot about a hundred polar bears a year, the Nunavit aboriginals pop around 400 a year. Add in Quebec and the North West Territories- total polar bears shot annually in Canada is about 600.

    I'd guess the Russians would take out a similar number ( no idea..)

    They survived the ice recess of the mediaval warm period, I think it unlikey the current ice variation will be a problem .

    The truth about polar bears - Canadian Geographic

    I think a more interesting perspective on natural climate variation affecting population would be looking at how a previous larger climate change , and the movement of the more warlike Thule ( whose descendants are the current polar bear -shooting innuit ) wiped out the more peaceable arctic Dorset ( referenced in current aboriginal verbal legend as the " large ones " ) .

    And why there are european steel knives so far north, under ice....

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    Perhaps it is because warming hasn't stopped and they want you to know it. I've been busy reading the latest about 2014.It is about to become the hottest year on record
    [/url]
    Nah.Ya been drinking too much kool aid.
    The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:

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    Re: NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record

    Quote Originally Posted by KLATTU View Post
    Nah.Ya been drinking too much kool aid.
    The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:
    Of course, when you look at SURFACE temperatures (ie where people actually live), 2014 is set to be a record.
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