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Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

Do you know why trucks are popular? They get around the government rules about the egg cartons... Physics demands that if you want to move farther on that same amount of energy then you have to move far less mass. The human losses that result are staggering.

I don't get where this popular bit of right wing mythology originated. First off trucks are popular because they are useful and a lot of people like driving them. Moreover, they get better mpg than ever before so they are not so expensive to drive.

However, your claims about "human losses" simply doesn't reconcile with reality. Motor vehicle deaths in the United States are at their lowest levels in the modern era:

1024px-U.S._traffic_deaths_as_fraction_of_total_population_1900-2010.png


So basically we have vehicles now that are safer than ever before, faster than ever before, can tow more in the case of trucks than ever before, more reliable than ever before, and more efficient than ever before……… And because of the fact that they are far more efficient than they were even a few years ago, we enjoy lower gas prices today because of the reduced demand for gas. Its a win / win situation so why complain about it.
 
'With crude at $75 a barrel, the price Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says will be the average in the first three months of next year, 19 U.S. shale regions are no longer profitable, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.'

Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable - Bloomberg

Shale Profits at Risk - Bloomberg


I (and others) have said for a while that shale oil is not the dream solution that the media is making it out to be.

Natural gas, wind and solar are in the process of driving demand down for crude. The only thing has realistically been keeping it up fuel prices are the speculators falsifying the market.
 
I don't get where this popular bit of right wing mythology originated. First off trucks are popular because they are useful and a lot of people like driving them. Moreover, they get better mpg than ever before so they are not so expensive to drive.

However, your claims about "human losses" simply doesn't reconcile with reality. Motor vehicle deaths in the United States are at their lowest levels in the modern era:

1024px-U.S._traffic_deaths_as_fraction_of_total_population_1900-2010.png


So basically we have vehicles now that are safer than ever before, faster than ever before, can tow more in the case of trucks than ever before, more reliable than ever before, and more efficient than ever before……… And because of the fact that they are far more efficient than they were even a few years ago, we enjoy lower gas prices today because of the reduced demand for gas. Its a win / win situation so why complain about it.
If the car I drive is hit by a truck I will die. If that same truck hit the car I drove 40 years ago I would very likely live. I made my choice. But government continues to take my choices away.

Many people have been killed unnecessarily because politicians wrote laws that took steel out of vehicles.
 
If the car I drive is hit by a truck I will die. If that same truck hit the car I drove 40 years ago I would very likely live. I made my choice. But government continues to take my choices away.

Many people have been killed unnecessarily because politicians wrote laws that took steel out of vehicles.

But the statistics simply don't back up your claims. Motor vehicle death rates 40 years ago were more than twice what they are now. If you get hit by a truck in your car:

1. You are less likely to be hit in the first place as that truck's stopping distance is much shorter than it was 40 years ago.

2. Your car has crumple zones, air bags, better seat belts, and other safety measures that both deflect the force of the crash and increase your odds of surviving the crash.

3. 40 years ago the physics of being in a heavier vehicle moving at a given speed and being struck by another vehicle resulted in much more of the force of that impact being transferred to your body and thus greatly increasing the odds you would be seriously injured or killed.

Mind you, the vast majority of those improvements in vehicular safety resulted from government mandates as well.
 
Natural gas, wind and solar are in the process of driving demand down for crude. The only thing has realistically been keeping it up fuel prices are the speculators falsifying the market.

Natural gas, wind, and solar don't really compete with crude oil as those are primarily used for power generation and crude is primarily used as a transportation fuel. The biggest thing that has driven down the price of crude is decreased demand due to greater vehicular fleet fuel efficiency.
 
Natural gas, wind, and solar don't really compete with crude oil as those are primarily used for power generation and crude is primarily used as a transportation fuel. The biggest thing that has driven down the price of crude is decreased demand due to greater vehicular fleet fuel efficiency.

I agree that it's fleet efficiency leading the pack but...

naturalgasdemand.jpg
 
But the statistics simply don't back up your claims. Motor vehicle death rates 40 years ago were more than twice what they are now. If you get hit by a truck in your car:

1. You are less likely to be hit in the first place as that truck's stopping distance is much shorter than it was 40 years ago.

2. Your car has crumple zones, air bags, better seat belts, and other safety measures that both deflect the force of the crash and increase your odds of surviving the crash.

3. 40 years ago the physics of being in a heavier vehicle moving at a given speed and being struck by another vehicle resulted in much more of the force of that impact being transferred to your body and thus greatly increasing the odds you would be seriously injured or killed.

Mind you, the vast majority of those improvements in vehicular safety resulted from government mandates as well.
Right. I have no interest in continuing this. You win. My half ton vehicle will withstand the force of being struck by a one ton vehicle just fine. Not.
 
Right. I have no interest in continuing this. You win. My half ton vehicle will withstand the force of being struck by a one ton vehicle just fine. Not.

Actually, your vehicle is probably about 1 1/2 tons and a full size pickup is just over 2 1/2 tons (though the new aluminum Ford F-150 is 700 pounds less).

Just sayin'...
 
You must hate the crap out of the green industry.

I love the green industry.

But I hate that it is subsidized. Any non-life saving product (green or not) that cannot make it without government subsidy, should die.


Btw, a couple years ago, the average household income of Chevy Volt buyers was $170,000(!).

Maybe It Should Be Called the Chevrolet 'Vote' - Forbes

Clearly, it was a subsidy for the rich. Struggling lower/middle class taxpayers have to fork over more tax dollars to make up for the tax savings the rich got for buying a 'green' toy. That is pathetic.

I love all electric cars (though I DETEST hybrids). But if they cannot be sold without government subsidies, let them die.
 
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Actually, your vehicle is probably about 1 1/2 tons and a full size pickup is just over 2 1/2 tons (though the new aluminum Ford F-150 is 700 pounds less).

Just sayin'...

Unless you were referring to a 1/2 ton pickup...in which case, never mind.
 
Is that what you believe is happening? Do you (really) believe the government is writing a check every month to oil companies?

In essence, yes I do.

http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2014/07/OCI_US_FF_Subsidies_Final_Screen.pdf

If you have a problem with that, please take it up with the authors of the report I linked.

They can explain it far better then I...plus I don't care that much about it - I started this thread about shale oil, not oil subsidies (though I am cool with the latter discussed here).
 
And at that time, you would never complain about the price of gas, amirite?

Why wouldn't I? Gas is going to go up in price. That is a fact.

For example, under the President's plan the EPA has put in place, C.A.F.E standards will rise to over 55.5mpg within the next 12 years. That means the take from states and the Feds on a gallon of gasoline purchased will be dropping significantly. Taxes will be going up significantly to make up for that.

Hydrocarbons are the great evil to Liberal/Progressives. They will become more and more regulated. With no ability to control the unilateral actions of Super Agencies like the EPA, the impact of temporary oil price fluctuations will pale in comparison to the social engineering through revenue impacts that is planned around it's use.
 
I love the green industry.

But I hate that it is subsidized. Any non-life saving product (green or not) that cannot make it without government subsidy, should die.


Btw, a couple years ago, the average household income of Chevy Volt buyers was $170,000(!).

Maybe It Should Be Called the Chevrolet 'Vote' - Forbes

Clearly, it was a subsidy for the rich. Struggling lower/middle class taxpayers have to fork over more tax dollars to make up for the tax savings the rich got for buying a 'green' toy. That is pathetic.

I love all electric cars (though I DETEST hybrids). But if they cannot be sold without government subsidies, let them die.

Why do you detest hybrids?
 
If the car I drive is hit by a truck I will die. If that same truck hit the car I drove 40 years ago I would very likely live. I made my choice. But government continues to take my choices away.

Many people have been killed unnecessarily because politicians wrote laws that took steel out of vehicles.

No

Cars today are far safer

http://i.imgur.com/7fYQaOc.gif

Old Cars Crashing Into New Cars: Which is Safer? - Core77

Cars today even small cars are far safer then cars of 20 years ago, let alone 40 years ago. Even small cars today weigh far more then cars of 34 years ago. The weight of a 69 Camaro was between 3100 to 3400 lbs the new Camaro is around 3900.
 
Why do you detest hybrids?

To me, hybrids are nothing but a compromise - the worst of both worlds.

Major manufacturers HATE all-electric vehicles. They have fewer moving parts (so they wear out slower) and they breakdown less and require less spare parts...so people keep can keep them longer with FAR fewer repairs and maintenance. Parts sales are a significant portion of manufacturers profits as is planned obsolescence. And for their dealer network, apparently as much as 1/2 of their profits come from parts and service (so they probably hate all electrics even more). Ask anyone who owns an auto parts store what they think about electric cars and they will probably wince.

But manufacturers have to raise fuel economy in their vehicles and they have to at least appear 'green'...so hybrids came along. and as much as they hate all electric vehicles, they LOVE hybrids.

Hybrids have all the maintenance requirements of an internal combustion engine PLUS they have the added complexity of an electric motor and it's batteries. Sure the latter does not wear out often, but they do eventually...especially the batteries. So they get to sell at least as many parts as regular cars/trucks, the dealers are happy for the same reason, the cars are more costly (and probably carry a higher profit margin), they raise CAFE ratings and they make them look green.
But they are - imo - horrible (unless you use them strictly in the city). They cost WAY more then a similarly sized and equipped normal vehicle - so much so that it takes usually 7 or 8 years to pay off the difference with better fuel economy (if you drive normal highway/city ratios; if you drive mostly city - where hybrids are most efficient - then they make sense which is why many cabs are hybrids). And repairs are worse then a regular car as there is a lot more stuff to go wrong. Plus, maintenance is also worse.

Of course, major manufacturers want to look 'green' - so many of them make all electric cars. But they - imo - deliberately make them so almost no one will want them. They pack in so little battery reserves that they only have ranges of 70-110 miles...semi useless for an average family as a principle vehicle...especially considering there are almost no super fast charging stands around. And if they say they cannot build cars with more batteries, they are lying or they are morons. Look at the Tesla. True, it's very pricey. But it can go hundreds of miles even in the base version...and that is a small company. Surely the big 'boys' could stuff a ton of batteries into a smaller car...they just don't want to.

And most of us know the example of the EV-1. The all electric car GM made in the late '90's to meet California's then proposed 10% zero emission law. OF course, when California chickened out and dropped the zero emission regs, GM refused to let any owners keep the cars and had every one they could get their hands on destroyed.
That episode should tell you right there how terrified major auto manufacturers are of all-electric cars...especially cheaper ones.

General Motors EV1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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That is absurd. Today vehicles are safer than ever before. There is a greater variety in choice than ever before. Trucks are stouter and can pull more than ever before. Sports cars are faster than ever before. You can get better off road capability in Jeeps, Land Rovers, and Toyota FJ-Cruisers than ever before (stock). Cars last longer and are more reliable than ever before. All this while at the same time cars and trucks are more fuel efficient than ever before. I swear some people would bitch if they were hung with a new rope.


Lol !

 


Ok, I have presented highway safety statistics and pointed out the performance of modern vehicles. In response, you post a picture of one vehicle of out hundreds of different makes and models. Should post a video of a 70s Ford Pinto in a crash or a 60s Mini in a crash? The fact is, highway traffic fatalities are down to the lowest levels in the modern era, vehicles are safer across the board, vehicles are more efficient across the board, there is more choice today than ever before, and we have lower oil prices due to decreased demand. I do not understand why anyone would bitch about that.
 
No

Cars today are far safer

http://i.imgur.com/7fYQaOc.gif

Old Cars Crashing Into New Cars: Which is Safer? - Core77

Cars today even small cars are far safer then cars of 20 years ago, let alone 40 years ago. Even small cars today weigh far more then cars of 34 years ago. The weight of a 69 Camaro was between 3100 to 3400 lbs the new Camaro is around 3900.

That new Camaro also gets far better mpg, is more reliable, more comfortable to drive, and would walk off and leave the equivalent 69 model. The fastest production Camaro in 1969 had a zero to 60 time of 5.9 seconds. The fastest production Camaro today has a zero to 60 time of 3.7 seconds.
 

Thank you for the link. Unfortunately, an agenda driven website presenting a report covering a false premise doesn't get very far in my book. Shale and tight oil have never, to my knowledge, been considered an answer to a petroleum crisis. They have always been considered a viable addition to petroleum production and supplies.

As such, the "desmog.blog, and the "Post Carbon Institute" may want to rethink their spin if they intend to attract an audience beyond the cheerleaders already in their camp.
 
Here is another comparison. The Chevy Half ton pickup in 1970 which was the absolute pinnacle of performance in the pre-emission controls / pre-CAFE standards era had the following performance specs for the 350 small block:

255 HP and 355 Pounds of Torque. It achieved 10 mpg in town and 12 mpg on the highway.

Today, a Chevy Half ton equipped with a 5.3 liter engine (smaller than the 1970 5.7) has the following performance specs:

355 HP and 383 Pounds of Torque. It averages 24 mpg on the highway.

So despite those horrible CAFE regulations, Safety Standards, and Emission Controls, that truck gets twice the MPG, 100 more horsepower, and more torque.
 
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