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Thread: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    Thank you for the link. Unfortunately, an agenda driven website presenting a report covering a false premise doesn't get very far in my book. Shale and tight oil have never, to my knowledge, been considered an answer to a petroleum crisis. They have always been considered a viable addition to petroleum production and supplies.

    As such, the "desmog.blog, and the "Post Carbon Institute" may want to rethink their spin if they intend to attract an audience beyond the cheerleaders already in their camp.
    Fair enough.



    As Fracking Enters A Bear Market, A Question Emerges: Is The Shale Boom Built On A Sea Of Lies? | Zero Hedge



    'KEY FINDINGS, TIGHT OIL (SHALE OIL)

    More than 80 percent of tight oil production is from two unique plays: the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.
    Well decline rates are steep – between 81 and 90 percent in the first 24 months.
    Overall field decline rates are such that 40 percent of production must be replaced annually to maintain production.
    Together the Bakken and Eagle Ford plays may yield a little over 5 billion barrels – less than 10 months of U.S. consumption.'


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-fraud-exposed

    'Here are there are five main things to know about the shale plays.

    They deplete very quickly. The typical shale, or tight rock, well production declines by 80% to 90% within three years.
    They are expensive. All oil and gas coming form them is several times more expensive than what we got from conventional oil plays.
    They are environmentally damaging because the fracking fluid is highly toxic and much of it escapes during the blowback process and sometimes water wells are contaminated.
    Because each well has low flow and depletes quickly, massive numbers of wells must be drilled creating significant infrastructure damage to roads and bridges. Currently no state or municipal authorities are capturing anything close to the total cost of the infrastructure damage from the shale operators which means taxpayers are gong to be left paying those bills.
    Not all shale plays are created equal – some are vastly superior to others. And even within a given play there are sweet spots and dry holes which can only be determined by punching a well in and seeing what comes out. Some call this the ‘mapping by braille’ approach.'


    Shale Oil: Expensive, Over-Hyped, & Short-Lived | Zero Hedge

    'Jim Rogers: I read the same things you do. But what I don’t read much about is the fact that the number of drilling rigs for shale gas has gone down 75 percent in the last 18 months or so. Because it turns out that these wells are very short-lived. They're great for the first 30 days. But by year three or four, they're very expensive to maintain.
    Two things come to mind. One is that I presume human ingenuity will solve that problem somehow. But if it’s a geological problem and it cannot be solved, then the gas boom is not quite what we all thought it might be. And I’m told the same applies to the shale oil wells.'


    Jim Rogers: Shale Gas Wells are very Expensive to Maintain | JIM ROGERS BLOG

    The Coming Bust of the U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Ponzi


    EIA Cuts Monterey Shale Estimates on Extraction Challenges - Bloomberg




    I am not sure what sources you require?

    Obviously the oil industry and the government won't frown on shale oil. I doubt the mainstream media or Wall St. will either. And the public LOVE the thought of oil self sufficiency.


    I am not saying it's a bust. But it seems clear to me that the U.S. shale oil boom is overhyped...possibly greatly.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by Hatuey View Post
    We know we know, the free market (controlled by an organization of countries) will prevail.
    Hmm. Of course that begs the question, who should control the market for oil?

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    That new Camaro also gets far better mpg, is more reliable, more comfortable to drive, and would walk off and leave the equivalent 69 model. The fastest production Camaro in 1969 had a zero to 60 time of 5.9 seconds. The fastest production Camaro today has a zero to 60 time of 3.7 seconds.
    Motor technology is FAR better today then in 1969.

    But, the 'pony' cars today have become Clydesdale's on steroids...they are ridiculously overweight.

    Take the Challenger. A relatively sleek car in 1970. Now it's a bloated whale topping the scales at over two tons!

    The motors under their hoods are fantastic. But the bodies desperately need to diet.




    The same with the Camaro




    And even the Mustang



    What do you need all that extra sheet metal for?
    Last edited by DA60; 11-27-14 at 02:49 PM.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Fair enough.



    As Fracking Enters A Bear Market, A Question Emerges: Is The Shale Boom Built On A Sea Of Lies? | Zero Hedge



    'KEY FINDINGS, TIGHT OIL (SHALE OIL)

    More than 80 percent of tight oil production is from two unique plays: the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.
    Well decline rates are steep – between 81 and 90 percent in the first 24 months.
    Overall field decline rates are such that 40 percent of production must be replaced annually to maintain production.
    Together the Bakken and Eagle Ford plays may yield a little over 5 billion barrels – less than 10 months of U.S. consumption.'


    Wall Street's Shale 'Fraud' Exposed | Zero Hedge

    'Here are there are five main things to know about the shale plays.

    They deplete very quickly. The typical shale, or tight rock, well production declines by 80% to 90% within three years.
    They are expensive. All oil and gas coming form them is several times more expensive than what we got from conventional oil plays.
    They are environmentally damaging because the fracking fluid is highly toxic and much of it escapes during the blowback process and sometimes water wells are contaminated.
    Because each well has low flow and depletes quickly, massive numbers of wells must be drilled creating significant infrastructure damage to roads and bridges. Currently no state or municipal authorities are capturing anything close to the total cost of the infrastructure damage from the shale operators which means taxpayers are gong to be left paying those bills.
    Not all shale plays are created equal – some are vastly superior to others. And even within a given play there are sweet spots and dry holes which can only be determined by punching a well in and seeing what comes out. Some call this the ‘mapping by braille’ approach.'


    Shale Oil: Expensive, Over-Hyped, & Short-Lived | Zero Hedge

    'Jim Rogers: I read the same things you do. But what I don’t read much about is the fact that the number of drilling rigs for shale gas has gone down 75 percent in the last 18 months or so. Because it turns out that these wells are very short-lived. They're great for the first 30 days. But by year three or four, they're very expensive to maintain.
    Two things come to mind. One is that I presume human ingenuity will solve that problem somehow. But if it’s a geological problem and it cannot be solved, then the gas boom is not quite what we all thought it might be. And I’m told the same applies to the shale oil wells.'


    Jim Rogers: Shale Gas Wells are very Expensive to Maintain | JIM ROGERS BLOG

    The Coming Bust of the U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Ponzi


    EIA Cuts Monterey Shale Estimates on Extraction Challenges - Bloomberg




    I am not sure what sources you require?

    Obviously the oil industry and the government won't frown on shale oil. I doubt the mainstream media or Wall St. will either. And the public LOVE the thought of oil self sufficiency.


    I am not saying it's a bust. But it seems clear to me that the U.S. shale oil boom is overhyped...possibly greatly.
    My goodness. You've certainly set aside all the connections for easy access. I'm not sure what the agenda is your presenting, but you've certainly assembled a boat load of information to paste at a moments notice.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat View Post
    Ok, I have presented highway safety statistics and pointed out the performance of modern vehicles. In response, you post a picture of one vehicle of out hundreds of different makes and models. Should post a video of a 70s Ford Pinto in a crash or a 60s Mini in a crash? The fact is, highway traffic fatalities are down to the lowest levels in the modern era, vehicles are safer across the board, vehicles are more efficient across the board, there is more choice today than ever before, and we have lower oil prices due to decreased demand. I do not understand why anyone would bitch about that.
    You could post a picture or video of a Pinto exploding but that doesn't adress the issue of just how dangerous these BRAND NEW and much smaller cars are.

    Its not rocket science.
    Lighter materials and less metal surrounding the occupants of a vehicle mean more people are going to lose their lives.

    Cafe standards have led to safety issues.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    My goodness. You've certainly set aside all the connections for easy access. I'm not sure what the agenda is your presenting, but you've certainly assembled a boat load of information to paste at a moments notice.
    The 'agenda' I am presenting is that people/the media should not get to doe-eyed about shale oil.

    It's a good thing, but it has huge drawbacks that many people (not saying you are one) seem to be ignoring/are unaware of.


    BTW...I did not have these 'assembled'...I searched at zerohedge and Google for them after I read your post and pasted them one at a time (though I had read/looked at some of them previously).
    Last edited by DA60; 11-27-14 at 02:58 PM.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    Hmm. Of course that begs the question, who should control the market for oil?
    Is it relevant? You already believe the cost of crude will go up. However, if OPEC doesn't want it to, it won't. That makes your blind faith in the free market not only laughable, it makes it ignorant of how the oil markets work. The truth is that for the next 10 years, OPEC could decide to keep prices at low levels like they did from 1960 to the 1970s or it could decide to dramatically lower prices like it did from 1980 to 1999. Not only would the US be unable to do anything about it, we'd be stuck with their prices for a decade unless we somehow manage to 1) produce enough oil to put a dent on our foreign oil dependence and 2) we convince private corporations to not export our gasoline and diesel (which bypass federal law). As none of those things is likely to happen, all we have is your faith that Arabs will be nice enough to push up prices. Then when they do, you'll parade around the forum saying how this is the free market at work and it will be better if we let the market sort itself out.
    I refuse to accept the view that mankind is so tragically bound to the starless midnight of racism and war that the bright daybreak of peace and brotherhood can never become a reality. - MLK

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    Whether they are ignorant or not doesn't change the economics of additional sources of petroleum. Production from these sources has never been offered as an inexpensive process. These sources require the market support a high enough price to make the effort affordable. As global reserves continue to be impacted by politics and dwindling supply, developing alternative domestic sources is not only a reasonable reaction, but areasonable strategic one.

    When gold mines in the west shut down, it was not for a lack of gold, but for a lack of profit in mining it. Had higher prices not evolved, current prices would be dramatically higher. This same thing holds true with oil.
    I agree with all of that.
    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    The 'agenda' I am presenting is that people/the media should not get to doe-eyed about shale oil.

    It's a good thing, but it has huge drawbacks that many people (not saying you are one) seem to be ignoring/are unaware of.


    BTW...I did not have these 'assembled'...I searched at zerohedge and Google for them after I read your post and pasted them one at a time (though I had read/looked at some of them previously).
    I'm not sure how many are doe-eyed, but I'm sure there are some. The economic stimulus is certainly hard to keep out of the news.

    As to the load of data you presented, I'm impressed.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    You could post a picture or video of a Pinto exploding but that doesn't adress the issue of just how dangerous these BRAND NEW and much smaller cars are.

    Its not rocket science.
    Lighter materials and less metal surrounding the occupants of a vehicle mean more people are going to lose their lives.

    Cafe standards have led to safety issues.
    Well I get you believe that, but the fact is, the motor vehicle death rate is less than half today what it was prior to CAFE standards. Cars are statistically safer than ever before. So your contention does not match reality.

    "You're the only person that decides how far you'll go and what you're capable of." - Ben Saunders (Explorer and Endurance Athlete)

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