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Thread: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    The Saudi's can do it for quite a while. A year is my lowball estimate, and that's without any cuts.
    No they cannot do it for quite a while because although Saudi production costs are quite a bit lower that those of the fracking industry, it is becoming increasingly harder for the Saudis to maintain such high production levels which means their production costs will keep rising, which means that they cannot indefinitely drive down prices in such a manner.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Wrong for a simple enough reason - US involvement in Syria/Iraq is not driven by a deal with the Saudi's, but rather by domestic politics.
    No, it is not being driven by the Saudis, BUT RATHER THE SAUDIS DESIRE IN SEEING THE US ENGAGE IN IRAQ AND SYRIA IS CAUSING THEM TO COOPERATE WITH THE US BY DRIVING DOWN OIL PRICES TO HURT RUSSIA.
    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    to China. With whom they already have purchasing agreements that are immune to both sanctions and price fluctuations.
    It is a fact that Iran is not immune from the negative effects due to lower oil prices. Their government is struggling despite having purchasing agreements with China. It is a fact that Iran has called on OPEC to do something to stop the price of oil from falling.

    Ali Marwi, head of the Energy Commission of Iranian parliament said that Iran demands a "serious decision" from OPEC members at the upcoming meeting.

    "A serious decision needs to be made to to protect members' national interests. Most oil producers set the yearly budget based on above $80 per oil barrel price. OPEC should take a concrete step to support high oil prices, namely a price which be logical for both oil producers and consumers," he said.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by JumpinJack View Post
    What is shale oil?
    Tar deposited in the shale strata.

    88888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888 88888888888888888888888888


    This make XL Keystone even more unattractive. More oil on the market hurts Texas producers.


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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    No it is not. You are wrong because you said was that the loss of the ability to heavily influence the oil market is an existential threat to the Saudis, and fracking simply cannot do that in the near term.
    Increased American production has already demonstrated the ability to cause control to slip from the Saudi's hands - that's why we are where we are now. It's also why the Saudi's fund the anti-Fracking movement here.

    Of course the fracking players are competitors and as a result they are a threat, because competition is threat, otherwise it would not be competition
    When your power and livelihood depend on control over an industry, loss of control of the industry is a greater threat than simple competition.

    But over the time frame of the next year or two, fracking simply does not pose that type of threat to the Saudis
    Ah. And it is your opinion that Saudi Arabia lacks the ability to plan out further than 24 months? Yeah, that makes total sense.

    which is why that strategy yields very little and can be interpreted as an exchange for crippling Russia in exchange for US engagement in Syria and Iraq.
    Even the Russians, who are among the most paranoid people on the planet, do not believe you. Instead, like everyone else that actually follows this crap, they know that the Saudi's are reacting to the losses in the market. This is a $$$ move.

    Yes we do know that because the only way that the Saudis can permanently damage the fracking industry is for them to be able to indefinitely keep the price of oil artificially low, and that is something the Saudis or no one else can do because it takes millions of years for oil to form and we are using oil at a greater rate that is it being replenished.
    Gosh, where to start.

    1. The Saudi's do not need to keep the price of oil infinitely low to permanently damage the fracking industry. It is quite possible they only need to do so in order to bankrupt the current fracking investments and send the message to any who would follow them. This, for example, is what Wal-Mart is often accused of doing - taking a loss to underbid local businesses until they close up, at which point it raises prices safely as it is operating in a semi-monopoly.

    2. The Saudi's have the ability to keep the price of oil low for quite a long time (relative to business), which is the relevant number. Boom towns can become bust towns pretty quickly. This is why you have a sovereign wealth fund of ~$750 Billion and an annual budget of $228 Bn. You think the nascent, hugely expensive, fracking industry, can stand three years of constant losses before investors flee?

    3. We are actually discovering and gaining access to oil and gas reserves at a more rapid rate than we are using them - which is why known net reserves keep growing, despite annual usage. Peak Oil hysterics turned out to be just another fad.

    No one is saying Russia is a problem for the Saudis. The Russians are a problem for the US because of the events that are transpiring in Ukraine.
    Sort of. How much do you think we really care about Ukraine? Base your answer on where you see us putting foreign policy emphasis.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel
    Again, in exchange for the Saudis hurting the Russians by driving down the price of oil, the US is agreeing to engage in Iraq and Syria
    The Saudi's don't need to give us anything to join the counter ISIL piece. We aren't joining it because they made us a deal - we are joining it because of domestic political considerations. We don't care about Ukraine because it has no domestic political implications. We are busy giving Putin more "space" because it's "after the election" and we "reset" relations with Russia - those who think that Russia is a problem for us, "the 80s called and they want their foreign policy back", remember?

    No, they will continue to be able to buy off their populace because they will continue to be able to sell their oil at the high prices that are the result of a LONG TERM increase in demand for a limited natural resource.
    That is incorrect for a variety of reasons. Firstly (see above) the percentage of oil consumed that comes out of the Gulf is continuing to drop as proven reserves continue to expand, and secondly, technology is bringing a lot of power savings online, even as demand from China is likely to flatten in the near future. The Saudi's know full well that foreign exploitation growth - led by the North American continent - can knock the supports out in this house of cards they've built and maintained over the decades. That's why they say things like "Fracking is a threat to the Kingdom". That's why they are funding the anti-Fracking movement in the U.S., it's why they are willing to risk breaking up OPEC, and it's the major reason why they are dropping prices now.

    Even a non-nuclear Iran is a PERCEIVED threat to the Saudis because of the tension that exists between Sunni and Shia Muslims and as a result of Iran's ability, through it's ability to influence the Shia dominated Iraq, to upset the balance of power in the Middle East.
    Yes. That is correct. Also because the Huthi are Shia, and the Bahraini protest movement is Shia, and the Saudi's tend to see Iranian hands wherever they see Shia problems. They are not, however, perceived as an existential threat to the ruling family until they have nukes. At which point, the Saudi's have pretty much already announced they will begin to build their own.

    The recent reduction in oil prices is due to the Saudis selling their oil at lower prices.
    The recent reduction in oil prices preceded the Saudi decision to lower their rates.

    No they cannot do it for quite a while because although Saudi production costs are quite a bit lower that those of the fracking industry, it is becoming increasingly harder for the Saudis to maintain such high production levels which means their production costs will keep rising, which means that they cannot indefinitely drive down prices in such a manner.
    See: size of SWF v size of Annual Budget (above) for an answer to this failed claim.

    THE SAUDIS DESIRE IN SEEING THE US ENGAGE IN IRAQ AND SYRIA IS CAUSING THEM TO COOPERATE WITH THE US BY DRIVING DOWN OIL PRICES TO HURT RUSSIA.
    That is a just-so statement with no supporting evidence, and quite a lot of evidence that demonstrates it is incorrect. They didn't lower prices when we started intervening against ISIL (that occurred months ago), nor is it something they would have to do to bring the U.S. on board for several reasons: firstly, the current administration would rather energy prices be high, as that would help meet their environmental goals; secondly, growth in the U.S. over the past couple of years is heavily driven by the energy sector - we would be agreeing to screw over ourselves; thirdly, the current administration couldn't care less about Saudi stability - but it does care about domestic politics, which is what pushed it back into the Iraq fight against its own preferences; fourthly, the U.S. is not (as near as anyone can tell) all that interested in hurting Russia. We do not perceive that any major U.S. interest was harmed by their seizing the Crimea and, if anything, we seem to be hoping that if we ignore the problem, it will go away.

    It is a fact that Iran is not immune from the negative effects due to lower oil prices. Their government is struggling despite having purchasing agreements with China. It is a fact that Iran has called on OPEC to do something to stop the price of oil from falling.
    China is Iran's major buyer and those deals are indeed immune. Iran is struggling due to a (somewhat surprisingly) somewhat successful sanctions regime along with still recovering from a bit of a currency crises.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    If the car I drive is hit by a truck I will die. If that same truck hit the car I drove 40 years ago I would very likely live. I made my choice. But government continues to take my choices away.

    Many people have been killed unnecessarily because politicians wrote laws that took steel out of vehicles.
    Could be, but don't bet on it. I looked at a Youtube video of a vehicle test where they crashed a 1959 full size Chevrolet, I believe it was a Bellaire, head on into a 2009 Chevrolet Malibu. The driver of the Bellaire would have been killed where the driver of the Malibu would have walked away from the crash.

    Here, take a look for yourself.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ5PcWziXT0

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    The Saudi's don't need to give us anything to join the counter ISIL piece. We aren't joining it because they made us a deal - we are joining it because of domestic political considerations.
    They don't necessarily have to give us anything to engage in Iraq and Syria, but we don't necessarily have to engage there at all. The President could say we will provide the Saudis et al, with nothing more than the arms and give some support with regards to intelligence and tell the Saudis, et al, to do it themselves. However, it makes it easier on the Saudis if they let us make use of their country to train the ground forces, and let us conduct the airstrikes. And to sweeten the pie, so to speak, they force down oil prices to hurt the Russians because they are a thorn in our side with regards to Ukraine.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    We don't care about Ukraine because it has no domestic political implications.
    That is complete nonsense and one need only look to the words and actions of Victoria Nuland to see this is bogus nonsense.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    We are busy giving Putin more "space" because it's "after the election" and we "reset" relations with Russia - those who think that Russia is a problem for us, "the 80s called and they want their foreign policy back", remember?
    It is total nonsense to say that we are giving Putin more space when we are strangling the Russian economy with sanctions.


    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    That is incorrect for a variety of reasons. Firstly (see above) the percentage of oil consumed that comes out of the Gulf is continuing to drop as proven reserves continue to expand
    The expansion of proven reserves is only temporary. Again, over the long term the world's consumption of oil is outpacing the rate at which it can be replenished, and as a result of the rise in demand and insufficient supply, the Saudis and no one else can keep oil prices down indefinitely. It is foolish to think otherwise.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    and secondly, technology is bringing a lot of power savings online, even as demand from China is likely to flatten in the near future. The Saudi's know full well that foreign exploitation growth - led by the North American continent - can knock the supports out in this house of cards they've built and maintained over the decades.
    Any decrease in rate of increase in demand from China will only be temporary. Technology can make it possible to extract oil that may not have been accessible in the past, but technology cannot make the Earth produce oil at a rate that matches the increases in consumption that will occur over the long term. Therefore again, oil prices will inevitably rise, long term, and the fracking industry will become profitable. Therefore the Saudi strategy can do no more than inflict temporary damage to the fracking industry, and to Russia as well, for that matter. The Russians know this full well, that is why they will simply wait this thing out and are simply positioning themselves strategically for the future.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    The recent reduction in oil prices preceded the Saudi decision to lower their rates.
    The Saudis accelerate the rate in which the price fell with their actions. And because of the Saudis, the price fell much lower than it would have, if they had done nothing.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    They don't necessarily have to give us anything to engage in Iraq and Syria, but we don't necessarily have to engage there at all. The President could say we will provide the Saudis et al, with nothing more than the arms and give some support with regards to intelligence and tell the Saudis, et al, to do it themselves. However, it makes it easier on the Saudis if they let us make use of their country to train the ground forces, and let us conduct the airstrikes. And to sweeten the pie, so to speak, they force down oil prices to hurt the Russians because they are a thorn in our side with regards to Ukraine.
    you are just making crap up.

    The Saudi's say you are wrong, the Russians say you are wrong, US Oil companies say you are wrong, everyone involved in this says that your conspiracy theory is wrong, up to and including those who would benefit by spreading that theory.

    That is complete nonsense and one need only look to the words and actions of Victoria Nuland to see this is bogus nonsense.
    Oh. Some bureaucrat said words!?! Well, goodness gracious! Call out the Marines!

    .....so..... how many Marines have we sent to Ukraine..... anywho? Lots?

    It is total nonsense to say that we are giving Putin more space when we are strangling the Russian economy with sanctions.
    well you'd have to take that up with President Obama.

    The expansion of proven reserves is only temporary.
    Sure... and it's been "only temporary" for about... a century and a half or so....

    Again, over the long term the world's consumption of oil is outpacing the rate at which it can be replenished, and as a result of the rise in demand and insufficient supply, the Saudis and no one else can keep oil prices down indefinitely. It is foolish to think otherwise.
    I think they'd be willing to take another century and a half, and figure stuff out then.

    Any decrease in rate of increase in demand from China will only be temporary.
    The flattening in demand (decrease would indeed be interesting, however) is actually likely to last for some time, for a variety of reasons. China is about to go through quite a hiccup, and if they try to ease the pain (which they likely will), then they will be looking at several years of sharply reduced growth, their own "Japanese Lost Decade" moment.

    Technology can make it possible to extract oil that may not have been accessible in the past, but technology cannot make the Earth produce oil at a rate that matches the increases in consumption that will occur over the long term.
    That is not necessarily true. Who says that we will not develop a process to artificially produce oil in the next few decades?

    In the meantime, reserves keep growing faster than usage, and the claims that we are any minute now from Peak Oil keep coming and falling flat.

    Therefore again, oil prices will inevitably rise, long term, and the fracking industry will become profitable. Therefore the Saudi strategy can do no more than inflict temporary damage to the fracking industry, and to Russia as well, for that matter.
    Sure. And if all the Saudi's get out of this is a few decades or a half century or more, well, gosh, what an ineffective tactic that would be, huh.

    I'm not saying they will. But that is probably what they are playing for.

    The Russians know this full well, that is why they will simply wait this thing out and are simply positioning themselves strategically for the future.
    Russia is about as boned "long term" as Saudi Arabia. If anything, Russia might be more boned.

    The Saudis accelerate the rate in which the price fell with their actions. And because of the Saudis, the price fell much lower than it would have, if they had done nothing.
    That is correct. Hey, guess what though, that in no way changes the fact that the reduction in oil process preceded the Saudi decision to lower their rates, and that your claim that the latter was the cause of the former therefore remains laughable.
    Last edited by cpwill; 11-28-14 at 04:31 PM.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    See: size of SWF v size of Annual Budget (above) for an answer to this failed claim.
    No matter the size, it is finite and would be depleted if they tried to keep oil prices artificially down indefinitely.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    That is a just-so statement with no supporting evidence, and quite a lot of evidence that demonstrates it is incorrect. They didn't lower prices when we started intervening against ISIL (that occurred months ago),
    They started driving down prices after Kerry meet Abdullah in Saudi Arabia on September 11. After that meeting, on October 1, it was reported that the Saudis were cutting oil prices.

    Saudi cuts official crude oil prices in battle for market share | Reuters

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    nor is it something they would have to do to bring the U.S. on board for several reasons: firstly, the current administration would rather energy prices be high, as that would help meet their environmental goals;
    Again, this is only a short term strategy meant to hurt Russia in the short term, and to put pressure on Iran in the current nuclear talks. So in the longer term environmental goals will not be sacrificed.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    secondly, growth in the U.S. over the past couple of years is heavily driven by the energy sector - we would be agreeing to screw over ourselves;
    Russia will be hurt far more than the US by this, which is the purpose. Not only that, lower energy prices will provide a boost to consumer spending which will make up by declines in the energy sector.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    thirdly, the current administration couldn't care less about Saudi stability - but it does care about domestic politics, which is what pushed it back into the Iraq fight against its own preferences;
    This isn't about Saudi stability, it is about hurting Russia in the short term because of Ukraine.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    fourthly, the U.S. is not (as near as anyone can tell) all that interested in hurting Russia.
    That is incorrect. That is why we have sanctions in place on Russia.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    China is Iran's major buyer and those deals are indeed immune. Iran is struggling due to a (somewhat surprisingly) somewhat successful sanctions regime along with still recovering from a bit of a currency crises.
    They are struggling because of the sanctions. That is why the Saudi moves to drive down prices is making in worse.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    No matter the size, it is finite and would be depleted if they tried to keep oil prices artificially down indefinitely.
    They don't need to. They just need to demonstrate the credible ability to outlast U.S. oil companies, which they can probably do.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill
    They didn't lower prices when we started intervening against ISIL (that occurred months ago),
    They started driving down prices after Kerry meet Abdullah in Saudi Arabia on September 11. After that meeting, on October 1, it was reported that the Saudis were cutting oil prices.

    Saudi cuts official crude oil prices in battle for market share | Reuters
    We started bombing during summer. Like, in August.

    But dude - look: even your own source says you are wrong.

    Again, this is only a short term strategy meant to hurt Russia in the short term, and to put pressure on Iran in the current nuclear talks. So in the longer term environmental goals will not be sacrificed.
    We are giving the Iranians exactly what they want in the Nuclear Talks. But you keep desperately trying to justify.

    Russia will be hurt far more than the US by this, which is the purpose.
    No, it's not. No evidence suggests that outside of your imagination and the imagination of people like you.

    Not only that, lower energy prices will provide a boost to consumer spending which will make up by declines in the energy sector.
    if we weren't in a period of deleveraging. We shall see.

    This isn't about Saudi stability, it is about hurting Russia in the short term because of Ukraine.
    We don't care about Ukraine. Certainly we're not going to just blindly "hurt" Russia over it without tying it to a plan. We gain nothing from simply "hurting" Russia with oil price reductions. You have to tie that to a strategy, which is something we don't have.

    That is incorrect. That is why we have sanctions in place on Russia.
    So... how many Marines in Ukraine, again? I see that our Armed Forces seem to be getting busier and busier in Iraq....

    and our "Sanctions on Russia".... I mean, really? Please. Our "Sanctions on Russia" amount to "we froze a few guys bank accounts". we did zip and squat to "Russia" because we didn't care.

    They are struggling because of the sanctions. That is why the Saudi moves to drive down prices is making in worse.
    Iran is absolutely struggling because of the sanctions. That's why they are striking deals with China to make them immune to sanctions.
    Last edited by cpwill; 11-28-14 at 04:58 PM.

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    Re: Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    you are just making crap up.

    The Saudi's say you are wrong, the Russians say you are wrong, US Oil companies say you are wrong, everyone involved in this says that your conspiracy theory is wrong, up to and including those who would benefit by spreading that theory.
    The crap is your assertion that the Russians have said that the notion that Saudi Arabia is driving down prices to hurt Russia is false. The Russians have said no such thing. What some of them have said is that the Saudis are doing it to hurt Iran and US shale oil. The crap here is your assertion.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Oh. Some bureaucrat said words
    Yep, that's the typical neocon response. Victoria is just some bureaucrat who does not matter. Keep repeating that mantra. Someone will believe it.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    .so..how many Marines have we sent to Ukraine..... anywho? Lots?
    We don't have to have Marines in a particular location for it to matter to us. What an absurd notion.


    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    :well you'd have to take that up with President Obama
    It is a fact that they sanctions have hurt Russia. They will have to spend billions to keep Crimea in shape at a time when sanctions are eroding the value of the ruble and causing a significant amount of capital flight. That combined with the Saudis driving down oil prices is hurting Russia significantly.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Sure... and it's been "only temporary" for about... a century and a half or so....
    Perhaps you didn't know it, but it is becoming increasingly harder for oil companies to expand their proven reserves. That's one reason why the majors took to acquiring smaller oil companies a few years ago.


    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    I think they'd be willing to take another century and a half, and figure stuff out then.
    That's what you call making crap up. What a load of baloney.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    The flattening in demand (decrease would indeed be interesting, however) is actually likely to last for some time, for a variety of reasons. China is about to go through quite a hiccup, and if they try to ease the pain (which they likely will), then they will be looking at several years of sharply reduced growth, their own "Japanese Lost Decade" moment.
    No flattened demand will not last for some time because although the rate at which China's economy is growing is slowing, it is still growing nonetheless. That combined with the growth in India and other East Asian countries will certainly strain the capacity of the oil industry to meet demand.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    That is not necessarily true. Who says that we will not develop a process to artificially produce oil in the next few decades?
    Have you identified that technology that will cause the Earth to replenish oil at a rate greater than it is being consumed? The answer is no, so again, you are making up crap.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    In the meantime, reserves keep growing faster than usage, and the claims that we are any minute now from Peak Oil keep coming and falling flat.
    In the meantime it is becoming increasingly difficult for oil companies to increase their proven reserves. In fact the CEO of Shell was forced out a few years back for lying about proven reserves, that demonstrates the type of pressure these people are under.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Sure. And if all the Saudi's get out of this is a few decades or a half century or more, well, gosh, what an ineffective tactic that would be, huh.

    I'm not saying they will. But that is probably what they are playing for.
    Here you are making up more crap. The Saudis are not going to get a few decades or a half a century out of this because they are not going to hold down prices long enough for that to happen. Therefore they are not playing for that because they know it's not practical.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Russia is about as boned "long term" as Saudi Arabia. If anything, Russia might be more boned.
    That is true which is why Victoria Nuland did what she did in Ukraine in the first place, to screw Russia in the long term. But they are not as screwed as the would be if they did nothing about it. That's why they had to secure there naval base in Crimea and are creating a buffer zone against NATO expansion in eastern Ukraine. If they didn't do that, they would be in terrible position in the future.

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    That is correct. Hey, guess what though, that in no way changes the fact that the reduction in oil process preceded the Saudi decision to lower their rates, and that your claim that the latter was the cause of the former therefore remains laughable.
    No because the rate greatly accelerated after the Saudi announcement and the price went from above 90 dollars before the Saudi announcement to below 70.

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