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Thread: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

  1. #81
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Hatuey View Post
    How many critically acclaimed records has it come out with? Listen, any computer can put a few numbers together and create something. That's not in question. What is in question is whether it will replace a human. Creation doesn't mean it's going to be embraced by a general public and to this day, they haven't been embraced anymore than the invention of animatronic dogs have replaced real dogs in any sense of the word. So yes, a computer can put a few notes out and make it sound like something. It's not going to put emotions behind it and then be able to explain the meaning of that creation any time soon.
    That's a good point, but composers and songwriters don't make good money anymore. If someone needs a song, let's say for a movie, then all they have to do is go to itunes, and they can listen to millions of songs by millions of writers (most of who have never sold any music at all because there is simply more music creators these days than there are music buyers), and select whatever seems to work best. An artist friend of mine recently posted a letter that he got from a movie producer who asked for the rights to use his music - with no compensation for the music. The producer pitched this on the bases that the music writer would get free publicity and status for having his music in a major film.

    Another friend of mine recently got his first royalty check from some music he wrote and recorded decades ago, I think it was something like $5.37 (itunes won't mail checks until you have at least $5 due).
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  2. #82
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    You would think so, but if we don't solve the distribution of income issues that are approaching us, there will not be enough customers with money to support many strippers or hookers.
    Ridiculous. There is no distribution of income problem, at least not one that can be solved by taxation.

  3. #83
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by EMNofSeattle View Post
    so what we'll need is either a massive welfare state or government provided employment, or a government mandate to employ. if trends continue like they are government is the only solution.
    Government will be part of the solution, but it doesn't have to be a massive welfare state. Nor does it have to involve communism or socialism. We can simply modify the rules of capitalism to fit our needs.

    There are lots and lots of alternatives to the welfare state, we just have to figure out how to make them politically viable.

    Since we can safely assume that there will always at least some need for human labor, then it's really all about reducing the working hours per lifetime, to the point that there are enough jobs that every family can have at least one. So lets say that the unemployment rate become 50% due to advances in technology (hopefully we will resolve this issue far before we get to that point), and the average worker worked 34 hours per week. All we would need to do is to reduce the hours work to 17 hours a week, and the issue of unemployment. Government could mandate a maximum work week, or it could require quadruple pay for overtime, etc. It could make our income tax system much more progressive (thus disincentivizing people from working more than their fair share). And with employers having to compete for employees just as hard as they do now, wages would naturally rise so that a 17 hour worker could make just as much as a 34 hour worker does today, and since the reason for the decrease in work hours is due to increases in efficiency and productivity, the employer could afford to pay a full week's pay for a partial week's labor.

    There's a million and one ways to make this happen.
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    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  4. #84
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    That's a good point, but composers and songwriters don't make good money anymore. If someone needs a song, let's say for a movie, then all they have to do is go to itunes, and they can listen to millions of songs by millions of writers (most of who have never sold any music at all because there is simply more music creators these days than there are music buyers), and select whatever seems to work best. An artist friend of mine recently posted a letter that he got from a movie producer who asked for the rights to use his music - with no compensation for the music. The producer pitched this on the bases that the music writer would get free publicity and status for having his music in a major film.

    Another friend of mine recently got his first royalty check from some music he wrote and recorded decades ago, I think it was something like $5.37 (itunes won't mail checks until you have at least $5 due).
    Music isn't gotten that way. A license has to be obtained from whomever has the licencing rights which is held by a publishing company. And no Computer based music will never improve upon human beings picking up a real instrument and playing music.
    Give a man a fish and he can eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he can sit in a boat, drinking beer all day while you fool around with his Woman.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Declan View Post
    Ridiculous. There is no distribution of income problem, at least not one that can be solved by taxation.
    Sorry, I don't remember saying anything about taxation, but I have to disagree about the distribution of income. Also, we are talking about in the future, more so than today, and with the assumption that in the future there will be far less need for human labor due to improvements in our technology.

    Once there are no longer enough jobs so that every family can have one, then the masses will be absolutely broke (barring a massive welfare state), and thus they will not be able to afford hookers and strippers. I'd call that an income distribution problem.

    So why do YOU think that there will be no distribution of income problem, and why do you not think that it could be solved (at least in part) by taxation? Do you have a different vision of the future?
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    Music isn't gotten that way. A license has to be obtained from whomever has the licencing rights which is held by a publishing company. And no Computer based music will never improve upon human beings picking up a real instrument and playing music.
    I agree that no computer can ever improve upon human musical performances, but the economy disagrees with both of us. Thousands of musicians have been replaced by music recording and playback, and by computerized music. Seriously, how many trumpet players do you know who make a living wage just playing trumpet?

    EDM DJs are currently the highest paid music performers. Some of them make in excess of $35 million a year. These are guys litterally "playing" computers on stage.

    And most music writers today aren't going through any licensing company, they are litterally self publishing and selling their music on a pay for download bases. Often, the pay for the fruits of their labor is $zero or pennies.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Then why are you a libertarian? It's the libertarian mindset that's most likely to keep us from advancing the economic changes that we will need in the future.

    I expect that their lives will be much more fulfilling. We just need to work out the economic details first, the libertarian ideal would doom our kids in the future, the solution doesn't have to be communist or socialist, but it will involve significant government regulation of the workplace.
    Me self-identifying as a Libertarian has what to do with me feeling bad for my kids and grandkids that 50% of today's occupations will no longer exist in 2025?
    Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. ~W.C. Fields

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    You would think so, but if we don't solve the distribution of income issues that are approaching us, there will not be enough customers with money to support many strippers or hookers.
    People always have money for strippers.

  9. #89
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos View Post
    Me self-identifying as a Libertarian has what to do with me feeling bad for my kids and grandkids that 50% of today's occupations will no longer exist in 2025?
    Libertarians generally oppose government intervention into our economy.

    In the future, probably much sooner than what most people think, unless we have more government intervention in our economy, there will not be enough income opportunities for every family to be able to have at least one income earner.

    So basically, by being a libertarian, you are dooming your kids and grandkids to a life of poverty. Unless of course libertarians evolve as our economy does.

    I have a very strong libertarian streak, I absolutely hate government intervention, and I oppose socialism and communism. I don't even agree that we should have means tested welfare, or subsidize anything for any reason. But I realize that due to changes in technology, the world is going to be a terrible place if we don't have appropriate government intervention to change the rules of capitalism so that they will work for most everyone as our economy changes.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  10. #90
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    I agree that no computer can ever improve upon human musical performances, but the economy disagrees with both of us. Thousands of musicians have been replaced by music recording and playback, and by computerized music. Seriously, how many trumpet players do you know who make a living wage just playing trumpet?

    EDM DJs are currently the highest paid music performers. Some of them make in excess of $35 million a year. These are guys litterally "playing" computers on stage.

    And most music writers today aren't going through any licensing company, they are litterally self publishing and selling their music on a pay for download bases. Often, the pay for the fruits of their labor is $zero or pennies.
    You're right about one thing in that there is not as much revenue generated in music sales today due to technology, MP3 and the internet. Where bands have compensated for this lost revenue is live performance. You can use pro-tool and cakewalk to your hearts content in a studio but no one is going to go to a venue to watch some dude push buttons on a stage. Do you really think that the Boston Symphony Orchestra could be replaced by two guys with synthesizers? Never happen. And all of this top 40 pop **** that is over produced with pro-tools is marketed to teens to twenty somethings who haven't developed an ear for what's real yet. People will always hunger for organic music. I'm in a Rockabilly roots band. Lead guitar, Acoustic rhythm and an upright bass. We record analog to two track. There is no ****ing way you can fake that real sound. I've heard records where bands try to replicate that warm tube sound digitally, I always know, you can't fool me. And if the **** ever hit the fan. I'd grab My guitar and start busking. Good buskers make pretty good money. My point is there will always be money to be made by musicians playing real instruments.
    Last edited by HenryChinaski; 11-10-14 at 07:15 PM.
    Give a man a fish and he can eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he can sit in a boat, drinking beer all day while you fool around with his Woman.

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