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Thread: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

  1. #41
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Nilly View Post
    No matter how much number crunching computers can do for us, at the end of it you still need a human to understand the results and make/advise a business decision. Classical accountancy where you write invoices and balance books might not be around much longer but knowledge of accounting will still going to be a key career skill for many people, for a long time.
    I agree. But what we are going to see is a 100 person accounting department being gradually reduced to 1 person. that's 99 families that will no longer have an earned income.
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    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  2. #42
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    ...
    while some of them will find alternative work, and some of that group will wind up in better positions, a great many will not have the aptitude to fulfill higher order job requirements...
    Even with those who have such aptitude, there won't be enough jobs to go around, unless we significantly reduce working hours.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  3. #43
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    There are quite a few companies that have "design online" features on their websites which allows customers to create their own artwork.

    No job, including those that require artistic skills, are immune from technology.
    Trust me, mine is. I'm not getting fired/laid off/put on the soup line anytime soon unless a client can figure out how to incorporate 4-5 different mediums at the same time. 9/10 times, they'll pay up mostly because their demands can't be met by anything other than a professional in the field I work in. I'm somewhere between an artisan and businessman. I sell my work and get to travel as a bonus. There's nothing not to like TBH except the fact that I'm tired of doing it.
    I refuse to accept the view that mankind is so tragically bound to the starless midnight of racism and war that the bright daybreak of peace and brotherhood can never become a reality. - MLK

  4. #44
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by BrewerBob View Post
    True, but isn't there a human surgeon still operating them or is my info out of date?
    A lot of the advances in technology eliminate the need for proceedures, or at least make the proceedures quicker and less invasive. So we end up with less doctors and nurses being able to treat more patients.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  5. #45
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Fortunately, there are answers, and ways to fix these issues without becoming either a welfare state or an empoverished nation and without communism or massive socialism.

    Unfortunately, those who can only see the world for the way it was yesterday, are going to fight against the policies that we will need for tomorrows world. It will be an epic political battle, that will probably eventually be won to our best benefit, but only after much unneccesary suffering is caused by political ideologues who don't understand how the world around is is changing.
    i can't agree enough with you on this point

    but i wonder how long it will take for all those unemployed voters to wise up and vote for the candidates who are not going to initiate policies which are opposed to the unemployable's situation

    for instance, the poorest and least educated in my state recently voted for and elected a senate candidate whose history as a local representative consisted of giving the rich tax breaks at the expense of short changing teachers and denying medicare to millions of citizens. they voted against their own interests - in droves. why should we expect that to change? while i am hopeful, recent history tells me my optimism is unrealistic
    we are negotiating about dividing a pizza and in the meantime israel is eating it
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  6. #46
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    i can't agree enough with you on this point

    but i wonder how long it will take for all those unemployed voters to wise up and vote for the candidates who are not going to initiate policies which are opposed to the unemployable's situation

    for instance, the poorest and least educated in my state recently voted for and elected a senate candidate whose history as a local representative consisted of giving the rich tax breaks at the expense of short changing teachers and denying medicare to millions of citizens. they voted against their own interests - in droves. why should we expect that to change? while i am hopeful, recent history tells me my optimism is unrealistic
    Once it get's to the point where even the rich are hurting, then we will change our policies. Businesses have to have customers, eventually, as more and more of us become unemployed and unemployable, businesses will start to fail in mass. Sooner or later, we will figure things out out, and replace our motto of "what's good for the rich is good for the masses" with "what is good for the masses is good for the rich". How long this is going to take, who the heck knows.

    I suspect it's going to depend on the results of the next few election cycles. If both houses of congress plus the POTUS is turned over to the far right (I'm not talking about republicans as much as I am the Tea Party and Libertarians), and if they actually act on their rhetoric, then I suspect that the results will force us to realize the changes that we need to make fairly rapidly.

    If we elect liberals, then we will just keep blaming liberal policies, and not technology driven fundamental changes in our economy that are dragging us down.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  7. #47
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by d0gbreath View Post
    It's going to be strange riding my scoot down the slab when all of the semi trucks are driverless.
    Not only will they eventually become driverless, there will be far fewer trucks.

    The trend these days is for products to be smaller, lighter, have less packaging, and to be multifunctional. Products can even be "virtual" and occupy no physical space, and can be transmitted electronically for free.

    A bet a tractor trailer can hall a million smartphones. Those tiny smartphones are replacing watches, calculators, computers, notepads, envelopes, stamps, typewriters, computer printers, fax machines, credit cards, ID cards, filing cabinets, cameras, pedometers, heart rate monitors, "life alerts", stand alone GPS systems, maps, pens, home phones, televisions, games, and zillions of other products.

    One truck will soon be able to carry the load of a hundred trucks.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  8. #48
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    some in the accounting profession will remain as coaches to those who need to be able to learn what the numbers mean, but those bookkeepers whose activities will be performed digitally, what of them and their ability to earn incomes
    ditto for bank tellers
    and cashiers
    receptionists and secretaries
    pharmacists
    truck drivers, cab drivers, and couriers
    librarians
    loan officers
    real estate appraisers and brokers
    retail clerks
    teachers
    widget makers
    warehouse workers
    macdonald's/fast-food order takers
    car salesmen
    and many, many more

    while some of them will find alternative work, and some of that group will wind up in better positions, a great many will not have the aptitude to fulfill higher order job requirements

    joblessness will be exponentially greater than what we are now experiencing, as those in middle class jobs performed by those with average IQs are without work in the not-too-distant future
    for society, will that mean that their and their family's quality of life should be limited only because their ability to earn a living is impaired because of tech advances that have made them economic casualties

    we have done a terrible job figuring out how to deal with underemployment today
    the matter is not going to get better over time
    This argument has been around for years, and in my opinion is short sighted. People thought secretaries would all be out of a job once computers were invented. 40 years later, and even though everyone has a mini calendar in their pocket, secretaries are still around. The job may have evolved but it still exists. Not only will old jobs evolve, but new jobs will pop up to take their place.

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post

    I agree. But what we are going to see is a 100 person accounting department being gradually reduced to 1 person. that's 99 families that will no longer have an earned income.

    Not only will they eventually become driverless, there will be far fewer trucks.

    The trend these days is for products to be smaller, lighter, have less packaging, and to be multifunctional. Products can even be "virtual" and occupy no physical space, and can be transmitted electronically for free.

    A bet a tractor trailer can hall a million smartphones. Those tiny smartphones are replacing watches, calculators, computers, notepads, envelopes, stamps, typewriters, computer printers, fax machines, credit cards, ID cards, filing cabinets, cameras, pedometers, heart rate monitors, "life alerts", stand alone GPS systems, maps, pens, home phones, televisions, games, and zillions of other products.

    One truck will soon be able to carry the load of a hundred trucks.
    Well one truck can carry the load of a hundred horses. That's 99 horse and carriage workers/families out of a job. Are we worse off for that change? No, because the fact that we now have trucks enables 100 new businesses to thrive.

    The move to technology means businesses are more efficient. Efficiency does not necessarily mean there are less jobs in the market. I don't know the exact jobs people will be doing in 15 years time, if I did I'd be a billionaire. However there's no doubt in my mind that new jobs will come in to take the slack, it's always happened and will continue to. My own job didn't exist until about 8 years ago.

    Here's a question for you, do you think the net impact of Microsoft Excel has been positive or negative on the economy? Even though it undoubtedly reduces the number of people you need in your accounting dept (no longer need all that time to file/calculate paper docs) it has enabled businesses to focus elsewhere and create new and better products, and also allowed entire new verticals to rise?

    Finally I would like to ask, and this might be a topic of a different thread, but for you, is 'utopia' at 0% unemployment (so everyone works) or at 100% unemployment, where people are 'free' from work to do what they want to (because machines take up the slack)?

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    So far, at least, the Massive Open Online Course (MOOCs) have not revolutionized higher education and training. Of course, with experience and learning-based changes, the technologies and approaches could improve, allowing for a larger impact.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/ed...-the-mooc.html
    They have not revolutionized higher education and training on any scale worth talking about, mainly due to high drop out rates and waning interest. What I can tell you is that if I hadn't done a MOOC I wouldn't have aced my job interview and got the job I have now. The point I wanted to make was that if you want to learn a new skill, the material is out there for you to succeed.
    Last edited by Nilly; 11-09-14 at 10:16 PM.
    "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable" - JFK

  9. #49
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Nilly View Post
    What I can tell you is that if I hadn't done a MOOC I wouldn't have aced my job interview and got the job I have now. The point I wanted to make was that if you want to learn a new skill, the material is out there for you to succeed.
    I don't disagree that those who are highly motivated for self- or independent study can benefit greatly from MOOCs and other information that is available. Put another way, their impact is more of a niche impact than a broad transformational one at this point in time. Without doubt, they offer value, but the audience that is positioned to leverage that value is still very small.

    If MOOCs are to become a much larger part of higher education (which is confronted by major problems of its own ranging from cost/loan issues to attainment issues), continuing professional education, and/or other forms of training, there will need to be changes. A scenario where they complement courses on campuses or in corporate training rooms rather than replace them is perhaps as plausible as the early arguments that they represented a disruptive innovation for higher education.

  10. #50
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Jango View Post
    First off, I wasn't meaning to come across as an asshole, my apologies. Secondly, it is on a person to be a strong candidate for employment, having the necessary skills from the right era helps out a lot. "Work today but plan for tomorrow's job."
    Like I said before, if you've been a postal worker for the past 40 years or so, you wouldn't think it at all necessary to know how to do things like coding and whatnot. Hell, most people who use computers and the internet have no idea how to code or how the internet actually works.
    "And in the end, we were all just humans, drunk on the idea that love, only love, could heal our brokenness."

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