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Thread: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by lifeisshort View Post
    Machines took more than 50% of jobs in the last few decades and computers will take another 50% in the next decade. It does indeed make you wonder what people will do for employment.
    I really have difficulty seeing how capitalism and ever advancing technology will be able to co-exist in the future in such a way that most people will be able to provide well for themselves. AI could advance to the point one day where even professional jobs are being replaced.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by CalGun View Post
    I love my horses, and riding them. I like my ATV and driving them. But I'll admit flying that drone with a live feed go pro was cool.....I think it's illegal but my closest neighbor is 21 miles away and not likely to report me. The drone can't fix the fence but can cure a whole day of looking for the break
    Drones are only "illegal" for commercial use without a private pilots license. For pleasure? Go for it. (At least five miles from an airport).
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    I work in a field where we are often seen as 'replacing' people (machine learning, data/process automation). I can assure people that while it can seem like we kick people out of jobs, we create more opportunity for employment than remove it. It's down to the finance/HR people to decide whether they want to fill that opportunity with new hires.

    As far as training goes, there are now hundreds of online resources where you can learn new skills that are being taken by young and old alike. From Harvard Computer Science courses to Financial Accounting at Wharton Business School. All for free. Even 60 year old postal clerks can do that (and make no mistake, some already are).
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Nilly View Post
    I work in a field where we are often seen as 'replacing' people (machine learning, data/process automation). I can assure people that while it can seem like we kick people out of jobs, we create more opportunity for employment than remove it. It's down to the finance/HR people to decide whether they want to fill that opportunity with new hires.

    As far as training goes, there are now hundreds of online resources where you can learn new skills that are being taken by young and old alike. From Harvard Computer Science courses to Financial Accounting at Wharton Business School. All for free. Even 60 year old postal clerks can do that (and make no mistake, some already are).
    Hope they're not doing the accounting one.

    That's one of the fields on the chopping block.
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Invisible View Post
    Way to be an asshole. First off, you are assuming that people have the time and money to even learn these things in the first place, which many are not in a position to do. If you've been doing postal work for the past forty years, why would you think that all of a sudden you need web skills?

    This is more blaming people BS disguised as 'personal responsibility.'
    First off, I wasn't meaning to come across as an asshole, my apologies. Secondly, it is on a person to be a strong candidate for employment, having the necessary skills from the right era helps out a lot. "Work today but plan for tomorrow's job."

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by BrewerBob View Post
    I really have difficulty seeing how capitalism and ever advancing technology will be able to co-exist in the future in such a way that most people will be able to provide well for themselves. AI could advance to the point one day where even professional jobs are being replaced.
    They already are being replaced.
    For instance, there are surgeries that are done with computers and robotics.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by What if...? View Post
    Hope they're not doing the accounting one.

    That's one of the fields on the chopping block.
    No matter how much number crunching computers can do for us, at the end of it you still need a human to understand the results and make/advise a business decision. Classical accountancy where you write invoices and balance books might not be around much longer but knowledge of accounting will still going to be a key career skill for many people, for a long time.
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    It's going to be strange riding my scoot down the slab when all of the semi trucks are driverless.
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    For those who are interested, the executive summary of the report can be found at: http://www.cbre.com/o/international/...mmary_1029.pdf

    The article footnoted in the report in question can be found at: Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization | MIT Technology Review

    In part, that article states, "The authors note that the rate of computerization depends on several other factors, including regulation of new technology and access to cheap labor."

    I suspect that the 45% estimate may be on the aggressive side of things. If one recalls, numerous rosy predictions have been made concerning the transformational impact of technology with reality falling far short of those predictions.

    First, job categories are not static. Even as some disappear, others will also emerge. That there will be a continuing trend toward knowledge-intensive fields is probably the most likely outcome. Niche positions that have little to do with those attributes will also persist, as they cannot be automated.

    Second, artificial intelligence may have its largest impact in complementing human effort e.g., decision making. For example, in the realm of economics, the complexity of human behavior has limited the utility of medium- and long-range quantitative models.

    Third, one cannot expect policy makers to be indifferent to developments that would threaten to decimate the demand for labor. Developing countries require labor utilization, among other things, to try to maintain social stability. Developed countries need it to maintain or increase living standards.

    Having said this, I suspect that there will be occupations that become less relevant while areas that are knowledge-intensive grow in importance. I also suspect that at least some part of the rising income inequality in the U.S. may be a reflection of the structural shift being driven by technological change rather than a matter of public policy.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by What if...? View Post
    Its those kinds of things that will go away though. Computers will do them.

    Its going to be the creative and the extremely technically skilled who continue to prosper. And that's nowhere near everybody. Lots of people weren't born with the "chops".
    Even the need for highly skilled workers is declining. There has been many a drafting department replaced by installing CAD programs onto the engineers computers.

    I remember talking to this guy who owned a large law firm in my town, about 15 years ago. He said that he had fired all the secretaries in the business and required that the lawyers do their own typing. I bet by now he has even let his paralegals go because most of the research they did can be done by anyone over the internet now, and in a small fraction of the time that it used to take.

    No job is immune to time and labor saving innovation.
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    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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