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Thread: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

  1. #171
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    Ok. We have something in common then; we've both done farm work and thought "there's got to be an easier way to make a living."

    Yup, there are. Got to bear in mind, not everyone has the intellectual, academic, social and financial props to make it through college... and these days so many who do come out with a huge debt load, and the risk of spending your best educational years learning a field that turns as obsolete as buggy-whip-repairman in 5-15 years is quite real.

    If we're going to say that getting a higher education is vital to success, and then contemptuously consign to their fate those who don't get one.... maybe we ought to make it a bit more financially and academically accessible to those who begin from hardscrabble poverty.
    Not exactly. I still do some farmwork LOL.

    I do think that people should be able to public college for free if they meet minimum standards for admission and the elect a degree program that has been designated to be likely needed in the future. I do not think we should be giving aid to private university students at all out of the public treasury. I would also support people going to technical/vocational programs for free as long as there are limits--like one program per however many years--and the programs had some basic business courses associated with them so the people could start their own businesses if need be.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Fearandloathing View Post
    With the cause "artificial intelligence" you can hardly lay the blame at Obama's feet. First, he has never exhibited intelligence per ce, artificial or real.

    He can, though, be condemned for not acting and once again we see the populist forcing hot button issues instead of providing leadership. Back in the so-called "recovery" he was taped commenting that the recovery wasn't coming that quickly and the problem was that more people used ATM machines instead of going to the bank.....which shows he at least had an inkling of the problem six years ago.

    But his response? Nothing, a direct fight with congress over everything, some posturing about amnesty, but not one word about shifting focus and adding opportunities for re-training. Kind of odd, considering Canad was into that ten years ago.

    That's the difference between populist/socialism and true liberalism....
    What response do you want? Do you want the government step in and enforce a lack of automation so that more bank tellers are required to run a bank?

    No focus on retraining? Democrats put forward bills like that all the time. Seven bills aimed at retraining veterans specifically, all shot down by the GOP. Because SPENDING IS BAD
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    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

  3. #173
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    i think that's a pessimistic assessment, but we are certainly entering a post labor economy. but for sake of discussion, let's assume that the real number is something close to that. this leaves us with two choices.

    1. train people to do the jobs that need to be done, and then pay them to do those jobs. if the private sector doesn't need them, then hire them via the public sector. advantages : we're paying people to work, and we keep our job > money > access to resources distribution model. also, we will get things done that have been previously neglected, as they were not profitable or were not high priorities. disadvantage : we'll need to raise taxes.

    2. status quo. pay entitlements to the unemployable, and maintain the high paywall between the individual and training / education. advantages : we don't have to get in a national fistfight about socialism. disadvantages : we still have to raise taxes, and the stuff that needs to be done is still neglected.

    i'd certainly prefer option one. i'm keenly aware that there is a bootstrap contingent which would support an option 3 : ignore the realities of the current and future labor market, kick people off of entitlements while giving them no alternative options, and tell them to sink or swim. musical chairs, basically : compete for a shrinking number of jobs even if you can't pay to play. and if you fail, tough ****. **** you. however, no matter how appealing this fantasy might be for some political leans, it's never going to happen in a first world country. the reality of the situation is that it's going to be 1 or 2. it basically boils down to pay people to work or pay them not to. i prefer the former.


    Number 3, if implemented, is essentially a 21st century "let them eat cake" argument.... which would lead to a replay of Viva la Revolution and a Rein of Terror as starving but well-armed Proles storm the walled compounds of the Better Off Half.... yeah, methinks we can do better...

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  4. #174
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Declan View Post
    Not exactly. I still do some farmwork LOL.

    I do think that people should be able to public college for free if they meet minimum standards for admission and the elect a degree program that has been designated to be likely needed in the future. I do not think we should be giving aid to private university students at all out of the public treasury. I would also support people going to technical/vocational programs for free as long as there are limits--like one program per however many years--and the programs had some basic business courses associated with them so the people could start their own businesses if need be.

    We're in the same ballpark here, I reckon. I am generally reluctant to increase the size, scope or powers of government if it can be avoided, but something is going to have to be done, and "investing in education" is an established gov't function (even if debatable in some venues).

    If the choice is going to be between having half the workforce be unemployable, or putting some tax dollars into making education/ job-retraining more accessible to the down-and-out, I'm going with the latter.


    Now you bring up state colleges and tech, vs subsidizing private universities.... and here's some interesting problems:

    Gov't subsidies of universities appear to translate into much higher tuition rates, rather than large increases in attendance. Oops. Greedy buggers....

    There aren't currently enough "slots" in the state U machine to educate everyone, and especially give extra time/help to those from academically disadvantaged situations...

    Are there enough JOBS for all the graduates, if almost EVERYONE starts getting a degree of some kind?


    Not saying I know the answers, just that all this stuff gets complicated when you start trying to fix it....

    Fiddling While Rome Burns
    ISIS: Carthago Delenda Est
    "I used to roll the dice; see the fear in my enemies' eyes... listen as the crowd would sing, 'now the old king is dead, Long Live the King.'.."

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by gdgyva View Post
    i have never worked a 40 hour work week

    and most of my employees dont either

    20 years ago, my average was 70 hour + weeks

    now, i put in 45-55 hours per week depending on what is going on....time of year....how busy the stores are

    most of my salesforce works 50-55 hours per week

    not including the owner, total wages averaged just over 90k per employee

    we expect more....we pay more....

    as far as what will happen to jobs in the future

    more and more will be automated.....and some industries will go by the wayside

    just as buggy whip makers were put out of business with the advent of the automobile

    new technology will create new industries, and new jobs....

    they will require an educated workforce that can think on their feet....and that can adjust with the times

    those that can do that will thrive.....those that cant will find it a hard place to make a living
    They will require a REDUCED work force, no matter the education. That is the entire purpose of investing in technology, yes?


    Pretty piss poor investment if it didn't deliver on it's promise of reduced labor costs...just saying.
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    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    We're in the same ballpark here, I reckon. I am generally reluctant to increase the size, scope or powers of government if it can be avoided, but something is going to have to be done, and "investing in education" is an established gov't function (even if debatable in some venues).

    If the choice is going to be between having half the workforce be unemployable, or putting some tax dollars into making education/ job-retraining more accessible to the down-and-out, I'm going with the latter.


    Now you bring up state colleges and tech, vs subsidizing private universities.... and here's some interesting problems:

    Gov't subsidies of universities appear to translate into much higher tuition rates, rather than large increases in attendance. Oops. Greedy buggers....

    There aren't currently enough "slots" in the state U machine to educate everyone, and especially give extra time/help to those from academically disadvantaged situations...

    Are there enough JOBS for all the graduates, if almost EVERYONE starts getting a degree of some kind?


    Not saying I know the answers, just that all this stuff gets complicated when you start trying to fix it....

    You wouldn't need to expand the scope. That is part of the problem in higher education. The cost of administration and extraneous activities have overtaken the cost of instruction in a great many universities.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Education isn't going to fix this problem, guys.

    The simple fact of the matter is, no matter how educated our populace gets, as our technology improves, we require less labor to achieve the same or superior results. This has been going on for some 10,000 years or so, now...with the current exception being that we are now at a point were technology can quite literally do 50% or more of all the work needed for us.

    At some point, we're going to have to accept the fact that SOME people are simply NOT going to be employed, at all, ever, and that number is going to grow as our ability to automate the tasks needed grows. No amount of education, no amount of hard work or discipline, is going to change that for some people, period. So, what to do? Do the "haves" let them starve, bemoaning the fact that they don't work, so why should they receive any of the goods? Or do we radically alter out concepts of work? Redefine the work week? Change our society to better suit the times we live in?

    Someday....SOON....a farm is only going to need about 30 people. A car factory possibly even less. A construction crew, less. All of the things we depend on to live (food, water, housing) are going to be provided for half the labor or less due to technology. Does that mean the final products will be cheaper? Or will it mean prices remain the same, or increase, and we slide further into a divided land between those with means and those without? Individually, company owners could give a damn about you or me, or anyone else. Their first priority is to their company, to their bottom line. And well it should be, that's their damn job. But at SOME point, the people of this country are going to have to accept that an individual attitude towards economics is a huge steamy pile of fail. That we are going to need SOMEONE to oversee the group, to ensure the health of the society. And that SOMEONE, whoever it is, is going to have to do things that, on the face it, aren't fair, in order to keep this machine rolling. Socialism, you cry! Fascism! Communism! All the spooky boogyman words will be used, liberally. But at the end of the day, it's save the asses of that 1%, too. Because it's NOT their job to ensure a healthy, robust economy and society, even though having such is surely a benefit to them. A requirement, even.
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinKohler View Post
    ...
    In the end, the ONLY reason why we should fear less work is because it would equal less pay with a constant cost of living....

    But it doesn't have to be like that. If we are producing more per work hour, the employer can afford to pay more per work hour.

    All we have to do to make that happen is for government to create mechanisms which disincentivizes both the employer and the worker from desiring to work long hours. At that point, employers will have to compete just as hard for employees as they do today, and incomes will thus be just as high as they are today.

    I'd much prefer some sort of natural private sector disincentive to exist for long working hours, so that the necessity of creating such disincentives doesn't have to be created by government, but no such private sector mechanism exists.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    but it doesn't have to be like that. If we are producing more per work hour, the employer can afford to pay more per work hour.

    All we have to do to make that happen is for government to create mechanisms which disincentivizes both the employer and the worker from desiring to work long hours. At that point, employers will have to compete just as hard for employees as they do today, and incomes will thus be just as high as they are today.

    I'd much prefer some sort of natural private sector disincentive to exist for long working hours, so that the necessity of creating such disincentives doesn't have to be created by government, but no such private sector mechanism exists.
    socialism!!! Communism!!!! Fascism!!!!!!
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinKohler View Post
    ...Their first priority is to their company, to their bottom line. And well it should be, that's their damn job. But at SOME point, the people of this country are going to have to accept that an individual attitude towards economics is a huge steamy pile of fail. That we are going to need SOMEONE to oversee the group, to ensure the health of the society. And that SOMEONE, whoever it is, is going to have to do things that, on the face it, aren't fair, in order to keep this machine rolling. Socialism, you cry! Fascism! Communism! All the spooky boogyman words will be used, liberally. But at the end of the day, it's save the asses of that 1%, too. Because it's NOT their job to ensure a healthy, robust economy and society, even though having such is surely a benefit to them. A requirement, even.
    You are right (or maybe I should say "far left"), but it's going to be mighty hard to overcome the politics. There are those who would prefer to live in an impoverished world of pain, than to accept any degree of socialism and live like kings in a world where there is little if any scarcity.

    I fear that we will have a virtual collapse of our economy and society before we will wise up.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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