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Thread: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

  1. #161
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    What I can't ****ing believe is that we are so indoctrinated to the ideas and principles of capitalism, that we see this coming tide of technology and the subsequent loss of jobs as a purely negative thing!

    Jesus titty christ, guys! We are heading into an era were we need to work less to produce more! Congratulations to all of us who made it? This is the future that has been written about for over a century. No longer does a man need to toil for 40+ hours per week to get "the job done". Why are you all looking at this as being such bad news?


    Because you're all indoctrinated by capitalist greed. You all know, that despite reduced operating costs, the cost of living is going to remain the same, if not increase. You all know that. Why? Because none of you are dumb, and you recognize the simple fact that humans are by nature greedy bastards.

    In the end, the ONLY reason why we should fear less work is because it would equal less pay with a constant cost of living. Which is indeed something to fear. Less employed people while maintaining current or increased levels of productivity, WITHOUT a break in site in terms of either pay increases, or dramatically reduced costs of living, will destroy our entire way of life. Period.
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    It'll backfire. When too many people are replaced with too many machines, those lower operating costs will mean nothing as people won't have jobs to earn money to buy whatever they're selling.
    It'll only backfire if the majority of employers don't understand that simple fact.

    And the truth is, due to globalism, we're in for a rough ride. Employers will need US customers less and less and other countries like China and India step in to the role of primary consumer.
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Here's a question for everybody.

    Do you believe that the captains of industry, the owners, the 1%, whatever you want to call them, in this country, would let us slide into a near permanent depression if it meant adding a little more to their bottom line?
    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Reports indicate that everyone knew he was hauling a bunch of guns up there. But, since you brought it up, there's something which should be illegal: guns that breakdown.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinKohler View Post
    What I can't ****ing believe is that we are so indoctrinated to the ideas and principles of capitalism, that we see this coming tide of technology and the subsequent loss of jobs as a purely negative thing!

    Jesus titty christ, guys! We are heading into an era were we need to work less to produce more! Congratulations to all of us who made it? This is the future that has been written about for over a century. No longer does a man need to toil for 40+ hours per week to get "the job done". Why are you all looking at this as being such bad news?


    Because you're all indoctrinated by capitalist greed. You all know, that despite reduced operating costs, the cost of living is going to remain the same, if not increase. You all know that. Why? Because none of you are dumb, and you recognize the simple fact that humans are by nature greedy bastards.

    In the end, the ONLY reason why we should fear less work is because it would equal less pay with a constant cost of living. Which is indeed something to fear. Less employed people while maintaining current or increased levels of productivity, WITHOUT a break in site in terms of either pay increases, or dramatically reduced costs of living, will destroy our entire way of life. Period.
    i have never worked a 40 hour work week

    and most of my employees dont either

    20 years ago, my average was 70 hour + weeks

    now, i put in 45-55 hours per week depending on what is going on....time of year....how busy the stores are

    most of my salesforce works 50-55 hours per week

    not including the owner, total wages averaged just over 90k per employee

    we expect more....we pay more....

    as far as what will happen to jobs in the future

    more and more will be automated.....and some industries will go by the wayside

    just as buggy whip makers were put out of business with the advent of the automobile

    new technology will create new industries, and new jobs....

    they will require an educated workforce that can think on their feet....and that can adjust with the times

    those that can do that will thrive.....those that cant will find it a hard place to make a living
    “Most of the shadows of this life are caused by standing in one's own sunshine.”

    Ralph Waldo Emerson

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    ... simple arithmetic suggests that technological innovation can only come so close to killing labor because the moment the balance tips too far in innovation's direction the pattern of economic behavior -- stock markets, equity firms, banks, etc -- stimulating it will collapse. Therefore, the companies creating the innovation will be unable to continue operations. In straight up capitalism, it is impossible to create a system like that.

    Theoretically, a government run socialist superstructure imposed on capitalism could amass the tools and resources to create such a system (the same way the U.S. government created the Internet), but it relies on a pretty big supposition: that it is possible to create a central machine intelligence that is capable of answering all human needs for all time (including creating, managing, and directing fleets of spacecraft to harvest resources from other planets and bring them back to Earth -- you'll need to be able to create three or four generations, one for harvesting from satellites within Sol, one from neighboring Solar Systems, one from the galaxy, one from the universe). To this it will need to incorporate and/or create local intelligences that are capable of resolving engineering demands specific to each new situation, including fighting wars against hostile aliens and resolving the ultimate end of the universe.

    A cursory glance shows this to be a paradox, because humans without economy will be unable to satisfy any of the physical or creative ambitions intrinsic to our nature. The only way the central machine intelligence can answer this human need is by creating an economy that humans engages our species' energies and emotional investment, thus returning us to trading currency for goods and services.

    Without special programming, even attempting to create such a machine would simply result in it attempting to eradicate humanity, since it would logically compute that the simplest way to answer human needs is by ending them once and for all. It would make a show of serving us for a few tired generations before springing its trap. Much easier than creating four generations of spacecraft, fighting a bunch of aliens, etc, etc.
    Last edited by Morality Games; 11-11-14 at 06:26 PM.
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    It'll backfire. When too many people are replaced with too many machines, those lower operating costs will mean nothing as people won't have jobs to earn money to buy whatever they're selling.

    I agree, and that's the issue here.

    Individual companies try to maximize their profits, and could care less about the profits of other companies, and they don't try to maximize our macro-economy because no one company is large enough to do that. So they work as individuals to achieve their goal of maximizing profits, but that doesn't involve the teamwork it takes to maximize an entire economy.

    What's good for the individual (or individual company) isn't always what's best for the team.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by gdgyva View Post
    i have never worked a 40 hour work week

    and most of my employees dont either

    20 years ago, my average was 70 hour + weeks

    now, i put in 45-55 hours per week depending on what is going on....time of year....how busy the stores are

    most of my salesforce works 50-55 hours per week

    not including the owner, total wages averaged just over 90k per employee

    we expect more....we pay more....

    as far as what will happen to jobs in the future

    more and more will be automated.....and some industries will go by the wayside

    just as buggy whip makers were put out of business with the advent of the automobile

    new technology will create new industries, and new jobs....

    they will require an educated workforce that can think on their feet....and that can adjust with the times

    those that can do that will thrive.....those that cant will find it a hard place to make a living
    and this is today's dilemma
    which will be magnified many times in the near future

    the new jobs - for the most part - will require an educated work force
    presently, about one in three kids do not graduate from high school

    and some of those who did receive a HS diploma are not educated or very educatable relative to the needs of a higher technologically skilled work force. many on the margins are not your STEM students, positioned to learn tomorrow's skills

    those that are bright and have the desire to learn and accomplish will have a very bright future. my son cannot find enough capable software programmers to fulfill a $160,000 entry level position
    every student in china studies programming
    how many do in the USA? (in 2012, only 1.4% of the AP students took the computer science exam. that stat is alarming)
    this is presented as a singular example that our public policy in this regard is one carried over from the past and policy not focused towards the future

    now, with computers being able to perform many of the low skill jobs, what becomes of those one-in-three Americans who cannot qualify for a high school diploma? how do they feed/clothe/house themselves and their families without having access to employment sufficient to provide a living wage

    we are seeing the front end of this wave now, with the displacement of under-skilled workers for better skilled workers as a consequence of the great recession
    there will be a tsunami to follow
    we are negotiating about dividing a pizza and in the meantime israel is eating it
    once you're over the hill you begin to pick up speed

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinKohler View Post
    Here's a question for everybody.

    Do you believe that the captains of industry, the owners, the 1%, whatever you want to call them, in this country, would let us slide into a near permanent depression if it meant adding a little more to their bottom line?
    Absolutely. No one company is large enough to significantly effect our economy, so they do they best that they can for themselves.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Declan View Post
    If you are lazy when it comes to your education and planning, then you will be picking apples. Yes I have done farm work. Quite a bit of farm work and if the choice was to do it or be unemployed or living off other people, I would still choose farm work.

    Ok. We have something in common then; we've both done farm work and thought "there's got to be an easier way to make a living."

    Yup, there are. Got to bear in mind, not everyone has the intellectual, academic, social and financial props to make it through college... and these days so many who do come out with a huge debt load, and the risk of spending your best educational years learning a field that turns as obsolete as buggy-whip-repairman in 5-15 years is quite real.

    If we're going to say that getting a higher education is vital to success, and then contemptuously consign to their fate those who don't get one.... maybe we ought to make it a bit more financially and academically accessible to those who begin from hardscrabble poverty.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report
    i think that's a pessimistic assessment, but we are certainly entering a post labor economy. but for sake of discussion, let's assume that the real number is something close to that. this leaves us with two choices.

    1. train people to do the jobs that need to be done, and then pay them to do those jobs. if the private sector doesn't need them, then hire them via the public sector. advantages : we're paying people to work, and we keep our job > money > access to resources distribution model. also, we will get things done that have been previously neglected, as they were not profitable or were not high priorities. disadvantage : we'll need to raise taxes.

    2. status quo. pay entitlements to the unemployable, and maintain the high paywall between the individual and training / education. advantages : we don't have to get in a national fistfight about socialism. disadvantages : we still have to raise taxes, and the stuff that needs to be done is still neglected.

    i'd certainly prefer option one. i'm keenly aware that there is a bootstrap contingent which would support an option 3 : ignore the realities of the current and future labor market, kick people off of entitlements while giving them no alternative options, and tell them to sink or swim. musical chairs, basically : compete for a shrinking number of jobs even if you can't pay to play. and if you fail, tough ****. **** you. however, no matter how appealing this fantasy might be for some political leans, it's never going to happen in a first world country. the reality of the situation is that it's going to be 1 or 2. it basically boils down to pay people to work or pay them not to. i prefer the former.

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