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Thread: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

  1. #111
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    Manufacturing has been migrating back to the US. Unfortunately, manufacturing jobs haven't.

    Computers and robots can be operated just as cheaply in the US as in any country in the world. As we continue to automate and computerize, no country will have a particular economic advantage in the cost of production, so international trade will actually likely decrease.

    Even China has been loosing manufacturing jobs, not to cheaper labor countries, but to automation.

    I have no idea why you are trying to make this a political issue. I'm not a liberal, or even a democrat. It's not a political issue, it's a technology issue.
    It is a political issue and not a technology issue and you are the one who was talking about income distribution which is not a "technology issue". So the cable guy and the phone guy and the fiber guy just becomes the fiber guy. Job descriptions are meaningless. Civilization did not collapse when the typewriter repair guy went away.

    The US runs about a trillion dollar a year deficit in capital investments, meaning Americans are sending more money overseas than America is receiving from foreign investment. It does not matter if your socks are made 100% by machines. Those machines need electricity, they need water for dyes and cooling and such, they need repairmen. China's dropping to 7.3% growth from 8.5% is not a trend that favors the US. The lack of water and electric are. I believe it was the Economist that recently had an article about the growing problem of businesses having production disrupted just because of water related issues. Eventually companies will migrate to the places that give them some advantage. A Nestle food processing plant will move into replace a closed textile mill. I recently read a news story about a newly constructed coal power plant being built in either Ohio or Illinois that is largely a municipal owned endeavor. They built next to the coal mine so that the reduced transportation cost of coal from next door offset the increased compliance cost because they were coal-fired. Businesses will continue to look for non-labor related advantage. I would imagine that energy/utility costs exceed labor costs in most large manufacturing facilities in the US. The person who assumed they would work at the textile mill might be able to work at the food processing plant, and the person who wanted to be a $60K a year miner might be a $35K a year lineman, but that does not mean that society will be involuntarily addled by computers.

  2. #112
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos View Post
    My kids won't be doomed to a life of poverty. They will hopefully go into the right fields and choose professions that won't be obsolete.....
    I hope you are right about that.

    My fear for my kid is that he will go into a profession, that isn't obsolete, but just has far fewer jobs than it has qualified professionals. The problem is that few professions are likely to be growing fast enough to replace those that are shrinking.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  3. #113
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    Well **** if that's the case I'll toss out my Social Distortion and Reverend Horton Heat records. Real music will always be relevant. It's like the difference between some processed velveeta and some really good upper Wisconsin aged cheddar. The processed **** feeds the instant need, the real cheese feeds that real long term desire. And if you think Rockabilly is a "dead genre" then you're the one who needs to get out.
    What matters is not what you or I like, but what the masses are willing to purchase. I'll bet that a lot ore velveeta is sold than "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar".

    For that matter, I guess I should "get out more" because I have never even heard of "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar"
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  4. #114
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos View Post
    The government can't stop technology from replacing humans. It's been happening for generations.
    With the result that we have more leisure time to spend with our families or, as Nancy Pelosi suggested, taking up writing or photography. Or trashing Nancy on Debate Politics, come to think of it..

  5. #115
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Declan View Post
    It is a political issue and not a technology issue and you are the one who was talking about income distribution which is not a "technology issue". So the cable guy and the phone guy and the fiber guy just becomes the fiber guy. Job descriptions are meaningless. Civilization did not collapse when the typewriter repair guy went away.

    The US runs about a trillion dollar a year deficit in capital investments, meaning Americans are sending more money overseas than America is receiving from foreign investment. It does not matter if your socks are made 100% by machines. Those machines need electricity, they need water for dyes and cooling and such, they need repairmen. China's dropping to 7.3% growth from 8.5% is not a trend that favors the US. The lack of water and electric are. I believe it was the Economist that recently had an article about the growing problem of businesses having production disrupted just because of water related issues. Eventually companies will migrate to the places that give them some advantage. A Nestle food processing plant will move into replace a closed textile mill. I recently read a news story about a newly constructed coal power plant being built in either Ohio or Illinois that is largely a municipal owned endeavor. They built next to the coal mine so that the reduced transportation cost of coal from next door offset the increased compliance cost because they were coal-fired. Businesses will continue to look for non-labor related advantage. I would imagine that energy/utility costs exceed labor costs in most large manufacturing facilities in the US. The person who assumed they would work at the textile mill might be able to work at the food processing plant, and the person who wanted to be a $60K a year miner might be a $35K a year lineman, but that does not mean that society will be involuntarily addled by computers.
    Jobs being replaced by technology is a technology issue. Distribution of income is an economic issue. Neither have to be political, unless we just want them to be, but to your point, I do agree that the solutions will largely be guided by politics.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  6. #116
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    With the result that we have more leisure time to spend with our families or, as Nancy Pelosi suggested, taking up writing or photography. Or trashing Nancy on Debate Politics, come to think of it..
    True. But she left out that you'd have less money.

  7. #117
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by imagep View Post
    What matters is not what you or I like, but what the masses are willing to purchase. I'll bet that a lot ore velveeta is sold than "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar".

    For that matter, I guess I should "get out more" because I have never even heard of "upper Wisconsin aged cheddar"
    The masses bought beanie babies too for awhile. The masses buy what they're told too music wise. They jump On fads and what's marketed to them, that is Until they develop a ear and crave music with more substance.

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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    True. But she left out that you'd have less money.
    Which will make our leisure time far more leisurely that we had hoped or anticipated.

  9. #119
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    The masses bought beanie babies too for awhile. The masses buy what they're told too music wise. They jump On fads and what's marketed to them, that is Until they develop a ear and crave music with more substance.
    I don't disagree.

    But regardless, it's becoming harder and harder to make a living wage in music, unless you have special connections. There are just way too many people pursing a shrinking market of financial opportunity in the music field. Anytime that competition increases without a corresponding increase in sales, profits will tend to fall.
    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    ...I'm not interested in debating someone who is trolling for an argument....
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    I see a big problem with the idea that whatever the majority wants is OK.

  10. #120
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    Re: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025: Report

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    You're right about one thing in that there is not as much revenue generated in music sales today due to technology, MP3 and the internet. Where bands have compensated for this lost revenue is live performance.
    i must challenge this presentation that live performance is going to offset the absence of recorded music income
    fewer and fewer locales are offering live music. the audience does not appear as it once did, and it is cheaper to hire a DJ
    there is simply not the demand for live music that there was back in the day

    You can use pro-tool and cakewalk to your hearts content in a studio but no one is going to go to a venue to watch some dude push buttons on a stage.
    one of the best acts i have ever heard was crystal method. i believe that consists of two guys punching buttons in a very musical way

    Do you really think that the Boston Symphony Orchestra could be replaced by two guys with synthesizers? Never happen.
    not sure what is happening elsewhere but our symphony, in the fifth fastest growing US economy, is near bankrupt. its costs exceed its income and it struggles on only because of local government subsidies
    as with other live music, the demand for symphonic performances is significantly down

    And all of this top 40 pop **** that is over produced with pro-tools is marketed to teens to twenty somethings who haven't developed an ear for what's real yet.
    doesn't matter what is 'real'. what matters is what the public is willing to buy. and if it is pro tools produced pap that is being purchased, then that is what will be made/played

    People will always hunger for organic music.
    not familiar with what constitutes 'organic' music. is that music without any fertilizer? i do believe people will seek out music, within any era. but that music is subject to change. in my parents' era, player pianos were a big deal. while it s not my thing, there were certainly a lot of them sold. and significantly for this thread, recognize that those player pianos did not require a pianist to make music

    I'm in a Rockabilly roots band. Lead guitar, Acoustic rhythm and an upright bass. We record analog to two track. There is no ****ing way you can fake that real sound. I've heard records where bands try to replicate that warm tube sound digitally, I always know, you can't fool me.
    good music is good music, whatever genre it might be, so long as the musicianship and songwriting are stellar. and while i would probably prefer analog to digital recording, digital recording of good music still produces good music

    And if the **** ever hit the fan. I'd grab My guitar and start busking. Good buskers make pretty good money.
    besides being a good musician, you must also secure a good scene for busking. not certain i would want to depend on busking - the listeners' willingness to throw some money your way for playing where they happened by - for my income. but then i am not a good musician; i'd likely starve

    My point is there will always be money to be made by musicians playing real instruments.
    but that does not mean that some musos would not be displaced by a skillful technician making digital music the public would pay to hear. it's happening today
    we are negotiating about dividing a pizza and in the meantime israel is eating it
    once you're over the hill you begin to pick up speed

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