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Thread: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

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    Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Good news folks. I think we are headed into an impressive Christmas season economically speaking.

    Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, possibly foreshadowing another strong month of employment gains in the government's closely watched report due Friday.

    Economists had estimated ADP would report 220,000 new private sector jobs, according to the median forecast in Action Economics' survey. Ahead of the ADP report, they predicted the Labor Department's survey this Friday to show 230,000 payroll gains by businesses, as well as federal, state and local governments.

    The two reports reflect similar hiring trends, but ADP's tally has differed from Labor's private-sector job tally by an average 35,000 since Moody's Analytics began helping ADP compile the data two years ago, according to High Frequency Economics. ADP said businesses added 230,000 jobs in September while Labor's preliminary estimate was 236,000 and, for the economy overall, 248,000.

    In October, mid-size businesses added 122,000 jobs, small businesses, 102,000 and large companies, 5,000, ADP said.

    Professional and business services led job gains, with 53,000. Trade, transportation and utilities added 47,000 and construction, 28,000. Manufacturers added a solid 15,000 jobs.

    "The job market is steadily picking up pace," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, which helps ADP compile the report. "Job growth is strong and broad-based across industries and company sizes."
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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Without the breakdown of part time/full time and what was the age breakdown, the number does not mean much to me.
    Since Obama took office, there are over (if I recall) 3.5 million more Americans employed BUT over 4.5 million are over 55 and the under 55's have lost over a million employed...so the initial number means little without the details.

    I think the BLS skews the numbers for the benefit of the government, but at least they give great detail on those numbers.

    I will wait until this Friday's BLS numbers to judge October.
    Last edited by DA60; 11-05-14 at 01:50 PM.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Without the breakdown of part time/full time, the number does not mean much to me.
    For the BLS payroll numbers (ADP only reports private sector while BLS reports total nonfarm payroll as the main number with private sector separately) there's no breakdown of full or part time either. For both ADP and the BLS Current Employment Statistics Survey they just take total number of people on payrolls. BLS also gets average hours, overtime, and average pay.


    I think the BLS skews the numbers for the benefit of the government, but at least they give great detail on those numbers.

    I will wait until this Friday's BLS numbers to judge October.
    There's no real way to skew the numbers that I can think of, though it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on how it could be done. But in any case the details of "usually works full time", "usually works part time," and "worked part time for economic reasons" comes from a household survey (the Current Population Survey conducted by the Census). It is a much smaller sample but is not limited to payrolls (so it includes agriculture, self employed, unpaid family workers, private employment, those working off the books etc) and gives demographic details.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Without the breakdown of part time/full time and what was the age breakdown, the number does not mean much to me.
    Since Obama took office, there are over (if I recall) 3.5 million more Americans employed BUT over 4.5 million are over 55 and the under 55's have lost over a million employed...so the initial number means little without the details.

    I think the BLS skews the numbers for the benefit of the government, but at least they give great detail on those numbers.

    I will wait until this Friday's BLS numbers to judge October.
    I'm glad to see those over 55 employment numbers down. It's mostly going to be a reflection of retirement where seven years ago these people couldn't retire due to the crash. Obamacare has a lot to do with it in that people didn't have to have a job to have healthcare and they dropped out. This opens room for the younger generations to get jobs. The more jobs we get especially for the younger generation, the less idol hands we have breaking into houses.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    The sad fact is that having a pedophile win is better than having a Democrat in office. I'm all for a solution where a Republican gets in that isn't Moore.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    I'm glad to see those over 55 employment numbers down. It's mostly going to be a reflection of retirement where seven years ago these people couldn't retire due to the crash.
    Yeah, that definitely slowed down retirements. Pushed my Pops back about 5 years, he just hung it up last month.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishstyx View Post
    Yeah, that definitely slowed down retirements. Pushed my Pops back about 5 years, he just hung it up last month.
    Man I got down in the dumps back then. I was so depressed because I had to empty my retirement for a second time (other during the early 2000's dotcom crash). I was just constantly thinking, "I will be working 'till I'm dead." It's a sad feeling to not have a light at the end of the tunnel like that.

    I couldn't help but feel crushed for those much nearer retirement.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    The sad fact is that having a pedophile win is better than having a Democrat in office. I'm all for a solution where a Republican gets in that isn't Moore.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Man I got down in the dumps back then. I was so depressed because I had to empty my retirement for a second time (other during the early 2000's dotcom crash). I was just constantly thinking, "I will be working 'till I'm dead." It's a sad feeling to not have a light at the end of the tunnel like that.

    I couldn't help but feel crushed for those much nearer retirement.
    Unfortunately, think it will be a redux relatively soon. Current market levels just don't jive with the economic data out there. Once inflation revs up and the Fed takes action, think the market is due for a correction. Starting to see some signs of it now. Noticed in FL with property values. A lot of investors are back in the game down here, boosted values significantly in 2013. From what I've read, pretty similar all over too. Fortunately they're not over doing it and it appears to be stabilizing. Says to me that some are beginning to divest a bit a out of the market for more stable options.

    Hopefully many of learned from the last one and have diversified their portfolios to be able to sustain a correction with manageable losses.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by Fishstyx View Post
    Unfortunately, think it will be a redux relatively soon. Current market levels just don't jive with the economic data out there. Once inflation revs up and the Fed takes action, think the market is due for a correction. Starting to see some signs of it now. Noticed in FL with property values. A lot of investors are back in the game down here, boosted values significantly in 2013. From what I've read, pretty similar all over too. Fortunately they're not over doing it and it appears to be stabilizing. Says to me that some are beginning to divest a bit a out of the market for more stable options.

    Hopefully many of learned from the last one and have diversified their portfolios to be able to sustain a correction with manageable losses.
    I've heard predictions of 2016 being the year to watch for possible economic instability should a housing bubble return. I don't think it could be as bad as the last one. The whole fraud perpetrated by the big banks with false signatures and mortgage buyouts to shift and hide losses... I think a housing adjustment could happen but not as horrifying as that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    The sad fact is that having a pedophile win is better than having a Democrat in office. I'm all for a solution where a Republican gets in that isn't Moore.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    I've heard predictions of 2016 being the year to watch for possible economic instability should a housing bubble return. I don't think it could be as bad as the last one. The whole fraud perpetrated by the big banks with false signatures and mortgage buyouts to shift and hide losses... I think a housing adjustment could happen but not as horrifying as that.
    I think the instability will be in the finance world. Mortgage backed securities aren't even remotely as popular as they were prior to 2008, actually kind of toxic. Think there are some highly over inflated stocks out there. Amazon, Google, Tesla, Oil, etc all come to mind. Big money players were looking for safe havens after 2008. Actually view their shift back to property as a good sign as its being viewed as a stable option.

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    Re: Businesses added 230,000 jobs in October

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    I've heard predictions of 2016 being the year to watch for possible economic instability should a housing bubble return. I don't think it could be as bad as the last one. The whole fraud perpetrated by the big banks with false signatures and mortgage buyouts to shift and hide losses... I think a housing adjustment could happen but not as horrifying as that.

    Oh Bull.

    Had the GSEs not been buying up everything that came their way, had they simply TOLD THE TRUTH when they reported their quarterly financial statements to the SEC in 2007 ( for the first time EVER ) instead of HIDING 9/10 of their worthless debt, there would have been ZERO market for those loans let alone all of the worthless derivatives.

    They were Country Wides primary consumer of their trash loans going back to the late 90s.

    Out of all the banks, lenders and investment companies involved in the Subprime mortgage crisis only two major Financial institutions were investigated by the SEC for their actions in the run up to the 2008 Financial crisis.

    You want to guess who ?

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