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Thread: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

  1. #121
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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by Fletch View Post
    He put a $6 trillion tag on Bush, so he hung all those costs directly on him. Obama has an $8 trillion tag that the left is trying to pass the buck for and that just isnt going to work
    Do you think that all of Bush's deficit causing policies just ended when Obama took office? You do know that at least 2 trillion of Obama's deficits were caused solely by the revenue loss from Bush's Great Recession?

    Republicans often blame Obama for the huge deficit. We often hear rhetoric like "Obama has run up more debt in 4 years than Bush did in 8 years." Democrats tend to blame Bush. These arguments are intellectually bankrupt and they reveal a failure to understand basic economics, math, or our system of budgeting.
    Obama inherited a $1.3 trillion deficit. The deficit was caused by a combination of three factors:

    1. Bush's policy changes

    Let's quickly dispense with the impact of the Bush wars, Medicare prescription drug benefit, and tax cuts. None of these things were paid for. The Bush tax cuts cost $160 billion per year, the prescription drug benefit costs about $80 billion per year, and the Iraq/Afghanistan wars cost about $200 billion per year. That adds up to $440 billion per year in deficit impact.
    2. Bush's reaction to the economic collapse.

    Bush's 2008 stimulus added well over $100 billion to the yearly deficit (since many of the policies remained in effect). It added more than $200 billion to the 2008 deficit, but let's leave that aside for now. Bush's financial rescue efforts (the bailouts) added up to about $130 billion per year in deficit impacts. When you add all of that up, you get a total of $230 billion.

    All told, Bush's policies created about $670 of the $1.3 trillion deficit that Obama inherited. I'm not here to throw stones at Bush. I supported some of those policies!

    3. The economic downturn

    In 2009, economists estimated that the economic downturn increased the deficit by about $426 billion in 2009. This assumption is based on two factors: (1) the loss of revenue after an economic collapse and (2) an increase in automatic payments as more people are forced onto unemployment insurance and other forms of government assistance.That adds up to about $1.1 trillion in deficit spending that had nothing to do with Obama. Aside from bailouts (which sharply decreased in impact in 2010 and beyond), these impacts were unchanging.
    Neither Bush Nor Obama Caused Our Deficit Problem - Mic

  2. #122
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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by rcart76 View Post
    Really???

    Are you really going to criticize liberals for that philosophy???


    Everything that goes wrong Cons blames Obama. Even s*** not in his control. However when s*** starts going positive, you guys act like he not even president.

    I not saying he should benefit for everything that goes right, but at the same time he shouldn't be blame for everything that goes wrong.
    As to the bolded above I agree. Far too many buy into the BS that the actions of the federal gov't under executive control are somehow beyond any connection with Obama yet are very quick to blame Bush for the recession and for starting wars that were approved by congress. If the "Obama economy" is responsible for lowering the deficit then that same "Obama economy" is also responsible for the increasing income inequality and making the black unemployment rate double that of whites.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

  3. #123
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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Republican congresses reduced the deficit. Democratic congress exploded the deficits. Both facts.
    Uh huh


    From 1989 to 1994, under full Democratic controll of congress, the deficit went from $152.6 to $203.2 Bil.... etc
    Are any of your figures adjusted for inflation?

    Can you also identify which policies and events increased the deficit during any of the time periods you listed?

    For example, and as has been pointed out many times: Policies advocated by Bush 43, with a Democratic Congress, had long-term effects on subsequent deficits, even to today. The Bush Tax Cuts are still largely in effect; the Iraq and Afghanistan wars went well into the Obama presidency, and the cost for veterans' care will be with us for the next 50+ years; the recession slashed revenues.

    You have noticed that for the past 10 years, "control" is an overstatement? Margins are narrow, veto overrides not terribly common (and bipartisan). Congress is involved, but certainly not controlling the budget.

    Did you forget how with both Clinton and Obama, there have been numerous attempts by Republican legislators to shut down the government -- and how they basically lost?

    Are you distinguishing between changes in spending, and changes in revenue? Did you take note of the recessions and wars? Policy choices advocated by various politicians?

    I.e. it doesn't really make sense to give any single party all the credit or all the blame. It doesn't work like that. You'd really need to break it down, determine who is responsible for what in each case, and further how much influence was exerted by a variety of other actors in those decisions.


    And thus the glory of the statement that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Some people like to keep saying they are posting "facts" and acting like presenting said "facts" will make everyone forget that the opinion and the subjective choices they're using in relation to those facts aren't any less questionable simply because there's a "fact" attached to it.
    So let me get this straight. You're presenting an overly simplified and selective analysis, labeling it as "facts," and then blasting other people who cite facts? Nice.

  4. #124
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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Republican congresses reduced the deficit. Democratic congress exploded the deficits. Both facts. If Democrats are such deficit hawks, why does this happen over and over again when they have the Congress.

    Lets look at the congresses from 1989 (101st) and forward to demonstrate this.

    From 1989 to 1994, under full Democratic controll of congress, the deficit went from $152.6 to $203.2 Bil. An increase on the deficit of $50.5 Bil. Over that period of time the average deficit was $231.91 Bil.

    From 1995 to 2000, under full Republican controll of congress, the deficit went from $164 Bil to $-236.2 Bil. A decrease of $400.2 Bil. That's an average deficit over that period of time $-22.98 Bil.

    From 2001 to 2002, with Democratic controll of the Senate and Republican control of the House, the deficit when from $-128.2 Bil to $157.8 Bil. An increase of $286 Bil and an average deficit over that time of $14.76 Bil.

    From 2003 to 2006, with complete Republican control of congress, the deficit went from $377.6 Bil to $248.2 Bil. That's a decrease of $-129.4 Bil and an average of $339.2 per year

    From 2007 to 2010, with complete Democratic control of congress, the deficit went from $160.7 Bil to $1294.3 Bil. That's an increase of $1133.7 Bil and an average deficit of $831.6 per year.

    From 2011 to now, with Democratic control of the Senate and Republican control of the House, the deficit went from $1299.6 Bil to $483.4 Bil. That's a decrease of $-816.24 and an average deficit of $887.3

    So lets look at some of those facts.

    Democrats controlled all of congress twice in that time span. They increased deficits by $50.5 billion one time and $1133.7 billion the next.
    Republicans controled all of congress twice in that time span. They decreased deficits by $400.2 billion one time and $129.4 billion the next.

    The Republicans came after the Democrats once. The average deficit during their span was $254.9 billion less than the Democrats that preceeded them.
    The Democrats came after the Republicans once. The average deficit during their span was $492.4 billion more than the Republicans that preceeded them.

    The average deficit during the entire Republican controlled congresses over this time span was $121.9 billion.
    The average deficit during the entire Democratic controlled congresses over this time span was $471.8 billion

    The deficit decreased from the year before 5 times while congress was under full control by Democrats.
    The deficit decreased from the year before 8 times while congress was under full control by Republicans.

    Just as you keep claiming, all I'm doing is stating "facts". Feel free to point out anything about those numbers that isn't a "fact".

    And thus the glory of the statement that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Some people like to keep saying they are posting "facts" and acting like presenting said "facts" will make everyone forget that the opinion and the subjective choices they're using in relation to those facts aren't any less questionable simply because there's a "fact" attached to it. The worth of a lot of these facts you, I, and everyone else in this thread are posting is largely based on subjective choices each of us make to decide what we want to give more, or less, concern to.
    That's a nice list... but you've not actually addressed anything I said. All you've done was change the topic to Congress instead of Presidency, thus supporting your narrative.

    Conservative presidents don't preside over deficit reduction is a fact (in recent history). Another fact is the deficit does not consistently rise and fall based on which party controls Congress. It's much more clear when you look at who's in the White House that the reduction or increase is more reliably determined... which is why you had to hopscotch years in order for your narrative to work.

    Presidents set the direction of policy because they (supposedly) have a mandate from the people, which is why they have veto power.

    I thank you for the reasonable argument, but I'd wish you'd actually address my point instead of redirecting it.
    A man without fear is a fool, a man that succumbs to his fear is a coward and a brave man acknowledges fear yet presses on.
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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by ttwtt78640 View Post
    As to the bolded above I agree. Far too many buy into the BS that the actions of the federal gov't under executive control are somehow beyond any connection with Obama yet are very quick to blame Bush for the recession and for starting wars that were approved by congress. If the "Obama economy" is responsible for lowering the deficit then that same "Obama economy" is also responsible for the increasing income inequality and making the black unemployment rate double that of whites.
    You say that you agree but still would not acknowledge that the GOP blames Obama for every single thing that goes wrong.

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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    At this stage the figures coming from America are unreliable and cannot be trusted.

    And how the hell does the worlds sole superpower run a deficit? Way to lead America.

    Why don't you turn profit? Like China.

    Why don't you cut spending and live within your means? When will you have real austerity? You can't keep Reserve Status! Why won't you live within means!?

    The world is going to take reserve status from you and then you will be forced to live within means.

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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by rcart76 View Post
    You say that you agree but still would not acknowledge that the GOP blames Obama for every single thing that goes wrong.
    So what? The reverse is true as well. Obama is not famous for taking responsibility but is quick to point fingers.
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by Tettsuo View Post
    You continue to paint me with a particular brush in an effort to create some parity between me and Republicans.
    Indeed, I continue to paint you with a brush that you're using facts to give an exaggerated impression of the realities of Obama's supposed successes and are grossly exaggerating in your attitude and presentation how much good he's actually done as it relates to deficits.

    I'm stating facts.
    So have I. I've still been waiting for you to point out which of the facts I've stated are incorrect.

    I haven't disagreed that you've been stating facts. What I have been doing is highlighting that your OPINION that you use those facts as a basis for is still an OPINION despite being butressed by fact. And I've been highlighting that your facts are presented through the subjective scope of context that you've chosen and that if a different scope of context is chosen then those "facts" we see change the overall picture.

    Under the Obama presidency, the deficit has continued the drop year after year. Under all of the Republican presidents of recent history, the deficit has increased overall, sometimes by wide margins.

    Both statements are facts.
    Indeed.

    And the statement that under Republican controlled congresses the deficits has continued to drop year after year, and under all of the Democratic congresses in recent history, the deficit has increased overall, sometimes by wide margins.

    That statement is also fact.

    That is not to say that I necessarily give more credit to congress than the President, or vise versa, as it comes to deficits. Rather, it's to highlight that pointing out a fact (That Obama has brought the deficit down each year) doesn't necessarily mean your implied assertion (that Obama is doing a good job with the deficit) is a "fact". One is a fact, the other is an opinion. Your opinion being butressed by fact doesn't magically make said opinion a fact.

    Much like you're doing now.
    Up to the post you quoted I've done no such thing. I've simply highlighted numerous FACTS that show that one can argue that while Obama has done good in relation to the start of his term, over all he has done rather poorly with regards to the deficit in the context of history. Additionally, even after the post you quoted when I did lay out the notion of congress, I did so not actually asserting that Congress deserves MORE or LESS credit for the deficit but rather highlighting exactly why scream "FACT FACT FACT" at the top of your lung doesn't actually make your opinion based conclussion from those facts a fact in and of itself.

  9. #129
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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by spangledbanner View Post
    At this stage the figures coming from America are unreliable and cannot be trusted.
    Yeah, generally speaking, it can. The figures are fine. It's all public, it's all reviewed.


    And how the hell does the worlds sole superpower run a deficit? Way to lead America.
    So what you're saying is, you don't understand macroeconomics?


    Why don't you turn profit? Like China.
    You mean, like this?





    Oh, and I'm sure we can trust budget numbers from a single-party totalitarian government with zero transparency. Yep, no problems there


    Why don't you cut spending and live within your means?
    You, uh, do understand that governments don't actually operate like teenagers with an allowance, right?


    When will you have real austerity?
    You, uh, do understand that austerity is the worst thing you can do during a recession and recovery, right?

    You do understand that this thread is about how the deficit actually shrank this year?

    Can you actually go through the budget, line by line, and tell us what to cut in order to produce a surplus big enough to take a bite out of the total debt in a 10 year period? While you're at it, which taxes should we raise, since it's unrealistic to assume we can cut our way to a surplus, especially since many of those cuts will drag down the economy as a whole?


    You can't keep Reserve Status! The world is going to take reserve status from you and then you will be forced to live within means.
    :lol

    What, is the ECB going to send us a nastygram in the mail? Does the UN confer "reserve status" on a nation?

    You do know that reserve holdings of the USD increased in the past few years, right? That 87% of the world's reserves is in USD?

    Can you articulate why other nations expanding the use of the Euro or some other currency as a reserve will magically force the US to "live within its means?" Will no one want to buy Treasuries if the USD is not a reserve currency?

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    Re: U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn

    Quote Originally Posted by Visbek View Post
    Uh huh
    Clearly you lack an understanding of the subtlety of satire, or else you'd have noticed that I purposefully parodied the exact language of Tettsuo's post to demonstrate a point rather than to put forth a sincere argument based on my own beliefs. It's too bad you apparently lack the grasp of such a technique, it's one routinely used by a number of posters such as Redress or Captain Courtsey. I'd suggest you seek to understand such a thing. A good hint is when the start of someones post is the exact mirror image of the person they're responding to.

    All the rest of your post is blabbering on and on attempting to explain away, give context to, or provide alternative reasonings for the facts I presented...but in no way, shape, or form actually stating the FACTS I stated were wrong.

    And you know what, that's absolutely fine.

    But it's irrelevant to the point I'm making.

    Multiple people in this thread continue to make or imply conclussions and scream loudly that they are being backed up by FACTS. When people question them about the context and actual reasoning behind those facts, as you're doing here to my post, these individuals have generally launched back with a "these are facts, deal with it" style attitude dismissing any further discussion as to the "what" or "why" behind said facts.

    Your questioning of my facts does a wonderful job of illustrating the issue with just screaming "Facts facts facts" over again and acting like they are gospel truth that can't possibly be examined or interprited in a variety of ways. Which is exactly one of the points I was attempting to make. Perhaps you missed it with my final paragraph where I highlighted specifically the fact that I was illustrated the issue with trying to present statistical facts as some kind of absolute method of proving ones opinion.

    Let's be perfectly blunt here with yourself though and what you find "nice". You have no issue with the people who initiated the providing of overly simplified and selective analysis labeled as "facts" because it meshes with your hyper partisan world view, but you suddenly do have an issue when I'm presenting it not as a serious argument but as an example highlighting the issue with their premise. Yeah, that is "nice".

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