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Thread: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    According to the BEA, defense spending increased 16% in Q3, compared with 0.9% in Q2.

    There is a big chink of the GDP gain.


    Oh, and apparently, exports rose while imports shrank (so obviously a stronger dollar did not help that, as I said above).

    And real personal consumption and durable/non durable goods declined from the previous quarter.

    News Release: Gross Domestic Product




    The bottom line, once again, is this makeup of the Q3 growth is not sustainable in the long run.
    As Keynes said, "in the long run we are all dead."

    But I am confused, I thought Keynesian economics is a "failed theory" according to you conservatives? But according to what you wrote, government spending raised GDP. I assume that this government spending on defense was spent on defense contractors who paid employees, who then spent those earnings.

    As for personal consumption:

    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    A lot of dudes getting thrown around here.
    We went from sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me to safe spaces.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    But according to what you wrote, government spending raised GDP. I assume that this government spending on defense was spent on defense contractors who paid employees, who then spent those earnings.
    What is this? Trickle-down government?

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    What is this? Trickle-down government?
    No, it's macroeconomics.

    When you have economy-wide deleveraging; when everyone is trying to spend less than his or her income, so as to pay down debt, you have a fundamental adding-up problem. My spending is your income, and your spending is my income, so if both of us try to spend less at the same time, what we end up achieving is depressed incomes and a depressed economy, with millions of willing workers unable to find jobs.

    Things aren’t always this way, but when they are, the government is not in competition with the private sector. Government purchases don’t use resources that would otherwise be producing private goods, they put unemployed resources to work. Government borrowing doesn’t crowd out private borrowing, it puts idle funds to work. As a result, the government is doing the right thing spending more (and should be spending even more.) If we ignore this insight and cut government spending instead, the economy will shrink and unemployment will rise. In fact, even private spending will shrink, because of falling incomes. And if you want to insist that some other kind of scenario would save us if only markets were perfect and pure enough, tell me how.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Quote Originally Posted by Tettsuo View Post
    So you forget about the first quarter? We will see how long it will last. Obama's track record on employment and the economy has been dismal at best

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Personal Spending, Income Weaker than Expected

    'U.S. consumer spending fell in September for the first time in eight months, suggesting the economy lost some momentum heading into the fourth quarter.

    The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending declined 0.2 percent last month as demand for goods tumbled and services barely rose.'

    Personal Spending, Income Weaker than Expected | Fox Business

    News Release: Personal Income and Outlays


    So 3'rd Qtr GDP rose by 3.5 even though consumer spending (which represents 2/3'rds of the economy) was down for a third of the quarter (and flat in another third).

    This number is based on greater government spending, reduced inflation (which affects the GDP) and smaller trade deficit...not healthy consumer spending.


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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Improving Economy? Thanks Obama.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    'The Trade Gap (net deference between Exports and Imports) increased 7.6% to $43.03 and when adjusted for inflation (CPI) increased to $50.76 billion, this is not good.

    This will also trickle over into the Gross Domestic Product (GDP); because just last week the third-quarter published ESTIMATE had a DROP in the trade gap to $38.1 billion. Trade was reported to contribute 1.32 percentage points to the GDP of the 3.5% third quarter estimate. No doubt that this actual widening trade gap and decline in exports will lower the revised GDP estimates.'

    Alibaba and Exports? | Silexx Financial Systems: Market Preview

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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    ""No doubt that this actual widening trade gap and decline in exports will lower the revised GDP estimates.""
    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP increased by 3.9% in Q III 2014, and 4.6% in Q II 2014, as per released in today's revision.

    source
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    Re: U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade[W:75]

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP increased by 3.9% in Q III 2014, and 4.6% in Q II 2014, as per released in today's revision.

    source
    Thanks, Obama!
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