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Thread: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Too bad Eric Duncan wasn't quarantined.
    Wouldn't have helped. He only spread Ebola to nurses treating him in the hospital.

    His family, living under the same roof, did not get sick.

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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    Wouldn't have helped. He only spread Ebola to nurses treating him in the hospital.

    His family, living under the same roof, did not get sick.
    It's crystal clear that Duncan spread Ebola to the two healthcare workers in Dallas prior to testing positive and being placed in isolation.

    He walked into the hospital on Thursday, September 25, was cared for by staff, during which time he had projectile vomiting, and they sent him away without testing him for Ebola, in what has been recognized as a major error in procedure.

    Then he was taken by ambulance into that hospital on Sunday, September 28, and was again left open in the ER being attended by people not yet in Ebola protective gear .. and was then tested for Ebola .. and after the positive result was returned and the hospital, unprepared, scrambled to create an isolation ward, it was only then that protective gear was donned and Spencer was placed in isolation.

    In the five cases where people were flown in with the disease and received already in isolation with caregivers wearing Ebola protective gear from the onset, hundreds of caregivers cared for these five patients, very high risk, and zero of them have Ebola.

    More than 76 healthcare workers reportedly cared for Duncan once he was isolated, wearing the same standard Ebola protective gear, and none of them contracted Ebola so far.

    Clearly the two healthcare workers in the Dallas hospital, as logic would dictate, contracted Ebola from Duncan on the two days he was at their hospital before he was isolated and before they were wearing protective gear.

    Thus it is also logical to conclude that if Duncan had been quarantined from the get-go, then the moment he showed symptoms those treating him would then have donned Ebola protective gear, and thus the two nurses would not have been infected.

    Pure, flawless, logic.

    Quarantine of high-risk people is historically the best thing to do with respect to other innocent unsuspecting people, and it remains the right and effective thing to do today.

    That his family didn't get sick means, as has been reported, they stayed away from him, and neither gave him direct care or used his towels, etc.

    This is good information, in that, unless you're a caregiver, if you stay away from the person and stay away from materials they've touched, you're pretty safe.
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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    So far it has. He monitored himself and when symptoms presented, checked himself in for treatment. No one else infected. How could a quarantine have worked better?
    Logically, you simply do not know that "no one else was infected".

    He was out in the public during the 24-hour period prior to experiencing definite symptoms, where some medical health professionals say he could be contagious.

    It takes 2-42 days from infection to experience definite symptoms.

    So it's too soon to state that Dr. Spencer didn't infect anyone else.

    Quarantine of Dr. Spencer definitely would have prevented exposure of others to him during that 24-hour window prior to experiencing definite symptoms.

    Thus now, because he was not quarantined, his fiancee is in understandably in isolation quarantine because he had contact with her, as are a number of others with whom he had direct contact being monitored.

    Those who are just being monitored and not quarantined, if they have truly been infected, then when their 24-hour period prior to experiencing definite symptoms occurs, they may be out and about, where they could infect others.

    Quarantine remains the right thing to do, for so many reasons.
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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by Ontologuy View Post
    It's crystal clear that Duncan spread Ebola to the two healthcare workers in Dallas prior to testing positive and being placed in isolation.

    He walked into the hospital on Thursday, September 25, was cared for by staff, during which time he had projectile vomiting, and they sent him away without testing him for Ebola, in what has been recognized as a major error in procedure.

    Then he was taken by ambulance into that hospital on Sunday, September 28, and was again left open in the ER being attended by people not yet in Ebola protective gear .. and was then tested for Ebola .. and after the positive result was returned and the hospital, unprepared, scrambled to create an isolation ward, it was only then that protective gear was donned and Spencer was placed in isolation.

    In the five cases where people were flown in with the disease and received already in isolation with caregivers wearing Ebola protective gear from the onset, hundreds of caregivers cared for these five patients, very high risk, and zero of them have Ebola.

    More than 76 healthcare workers reportedly cared for Duncan once he was isolated, wearing the same standard Ebola protective gear, and none of them contracted Ebola so far.

    Clearly the two healthcare workers in the Dallas hospital, as logic would dictate, contracted Ebola from Duncan on the two days he was at their hospital before he was isolated and before they were wearing protective gear.

    Thus it is also logical to conclude that if Duncan had been quarantined from the get-go, then the moment he showed symptoms those treating him would then have donned Ebola protective gear, and thus the two nurses would not have been infected.

    Pure, flawless, logic.

    Quarantine of high-risk people is historically the best thing to do with respect to other innocent unsuspecting people, and it remains the right and effective thing to do today.

    That his family didn't get sick means, as has been reported, they stayed away from him, and neither gave him direct care or used his towels, etc.

    This is good information, in that, unless you're a caregiver, if you stay away from the person and stay away from materials they've touched, you're pretty safe.
    What you missed is that he told the hospital where he'd been and they ignored that and his symptoms. It's not a failure due to lack of quarantine - he did what he should have, which is checked himself into the hospital when symptoms presented. And even with the major error on the part of the hospital, no one other than healthcare workers got sick, so the risk to the general population is zero for all practical purposes.

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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by Ontologuy View Post
    Logically, you simply do not know that "no one else was infected".

    He was out in the public during the 24-hour period prior to experiencing definite symptoms, where some medical health professionals say he could be contagious.

    It takes 2-42 days from infection to experience definite symptoms.

    So it's too soon to state that Dr. Spencer didn't infect anyone else.

    Quarantine of Dr. Spencer definitely would have prevented exposure of others to him during that 24-hour window prior to experiencing definite symptoms.

    Thus now, because he was not quarantined, his fiancee is in understandably in isolation quarantine because he had contact with her, as are a number of others with whom he had direct contact being monitored.

    Those who are just being monitored and not quarantined, if they have truly been infected, then when their 24-hour period prior to experiencing definite symptoms occurs, they may be out and about, where they could infect others.

    Quarantine remains the right thing to do, for so many reasons.
    You're right, I don't know that, which is why I said in several other times I made the same point, "so far" or the equivalent. But you're still left with the fact that no one outside care givers has been infected. Even in Africa, with terrible systems in place to identify and isolate those sick, the rate of spread is low, only 1-2.

    Maybe in 2 weeks I'll be proved wrong and the Dr. infected bystanders, but it's an extreme step to require anyone going to Ebola to spend an additional 21 days (or 42 days!) under at least house arrest helping no one, when the evidence so far shows the risk of them to the general population is zero. It's a huge deterrent to those inclined to help out in Africa where a lot of help is needed (and where outside assistance will be needed for a very long time to come), a huge waste of their talents while sitting in isolation, and a huge incentive to lie on their return, send them underground.

    At the very least, we have to weight the expected benefit - which based on the evidence so far is zero - against the very real costs of the policies. Most favoring quarantine don't recognize ANY downside at all, when clearly that downside is significant.

    I'll just say that the benefit may be entirely psychological, to prevent irrational panic, and that may be enough to justify the measures. But that's entirely different than believing they're necessary based on the science, because the science and evidence to date indicates such measures are overkill, with significant costs not offset with any measurable benefits beyond appeasing the fearful.

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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    What you missed is that he told the hospital where he'd been and they ignored that and his symptoms. It's not a failure due to lack of quarantine - he did what he should have, which is checked himself into the hospital when symptoms presented. And even with the major error on the part of the hospital, no one other than healthcare workers got sick, so the risk to the general population is zero for all practical purposes.
    Your phrase "what you missed..." is obviously false.

    I clearly presented the hospital's major error in procedure.

    The quarantine would have required that he call ahead when symptoms developed and that, from the onset, he would have not only been treated for Ebola, avoiding the delay that cost him his life, but no healthcare workers would have been infected, logic concludes.

    Your statement "... which is checked himself into the hospital ..." is precisely what hospitals want to avoid now: walk-in Ebola patients "checking themselves in" to the ER to be treated by unsuspecting ER personnel prior to an Ebola diagnosis, contaminating them. Hospitals want anyone high-risk, like Duncan, suspected of having Ebola to call in first, to be then taken in by ambulance to a quarantine care unit of workers already in Ebola protective garb.

    Your premise that no other healthcare workers got sick after they donned protective gear simply does not logically lead to your conclusion that the risk to the general population is zero for the hedged "all practical purposes".

    The general population isn't wearing Ebola protective gear.

    That two workers who cared for Duncan prior to wearing protective gear contracted Ebola from him highlights that the general public is indeed at risk if they have direct contact with an Ebola patient and provide care, since the general public does not wear hospital protective gear.

    Poor enclaves in America are thus at greatest risk from this.
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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by fmw View Post
    A medical professional should understand the purpose of a 21 day quarantine for people returning from infected countries. She'll survive.
    She'll survive, but I doubt that she will go back to Africa and help again after three weeks of being pent up.
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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Yep, she's selfish. She should understand the need for the quarantine and keep her trap shut.

    The self isolation of Health care workers doesn't work.

    If she wants to complain about her treatment she should direct her comments to the Nurse in Dallas and the Dr in New York.

    They're the examples that forced the Government's hand to force quarantine all of these idiots.
    Where do you get off calling those that care for the sick and the dying, idiots? That's going to send you south some day.
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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    You're right, I don't know that, which is why I said in several other times I made the same point, "so far" or the equivalent. But you're still left with the fact that no one outside care givers has been infected. Even in Africa, with terrible systems in place to identify and isolate those sick, the rate of spread is low, only 1-2.
    The rate of spread of Ebola has always been about that rate.

    That's good news, as it's not yet airborne, it would appear, even if it can also apparently travel over three feet in droplets of moisture under the right conditions (see below).

    But two parents caring for a sick child here in one of America's poor enclaves .. would be two more too many.

    As is clear from reports, The four people in the apartment with Duncan steered clear of him and the things he touched at the onset of his symptoms. Still, they were lucky.

    Anyone else he had contact with has been at risk, even if such contact was minimal in numbers, but only those closely caring for him, like the two nurses who contracted Ebola prior to knowing that's what he had, contracted it.


    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    Maybe in 2 weeks I'll be proved wrong and the Dr. infected bystanders, but it's an extreme step to require anyone going to Ebola to spend an additional 21 days (or 42 days!) under at least house arrest helping no one, when the evidence so far shows the risk of them to the general population is zero. It's a huge deterrent to those inclined to help out in Africa where a lot of help is needed (and where outside assistance will be needed for a very long time to come), a huge waste of their talents while sitting in isolation, and a huge incentive to lie on their return, send them underground.
    I understand what you're saying.

    But, we must weigh both sides, not just the inconvenience of the quarantine to the high-risk people.

    If it stops an epidemic in America, the quarantine is clearly worth it.

    This is one of those situations where, if we enact these quarantines and nobody gets Ebola, then we have to believe we did the right thing.

    We can't simulate this situation and test it out in some microcosm to see what would have happened if we hadn't enacted the quarantine.

    Quarantines in America are all about preventing the spread of an epidemic to Americans and in America.

    West Africa is viscerally far away, from an emotional aspect.

    Those griping about quarantines would feel very different if an Ebola epidemic took root here.

    Better extra-careful safe than deadly epidemic sorry.


    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    At the very least, we have to weight the expected benefit - which based on the evidence so far is zero - against the very real costs of the policies. Most favoring quarantine don't recognize ANY downside at all, when clearly that downside is significant.
    But that's the flaw in your analysis: the evidence is simply not zero.

    The two nurses in Dallas who contracted Ebola from Duncan count in this equation.

    If Dr. Spencer was roaming around freely in the populace and has contaminated someone when he was in the 24-hour period onset of symptoms during which time he is contagious, then he will have transmitted the disease to someone who, if they are poor and cannot afford hospital care, will be then cared for by his family at home once their incubation period is over and they're symptomatic .. and the epidemic begins.

    Duncan's family members stayed away from him.

    Spencer may not have stayed far enough away from someone during the onset of his symptoms (such as his fiancee who is, understandably, now in quarantine).

    We can't allow that risk to start an epidemic.

    That's flawless logic.

    I really don't think anyone is ignoring the downside to those being quarantined you mentioned.

    I believe they're simply accurately weighing both sides.


    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    I'll just say that the benefit may be entirely psychological, to prevent irrational panic, and that may be enough to justify the measures.
    Yes, being sensitive to the psyche of the great majority of Americans and their intelligent real concerns on the matter is huge. It can't be overemphasized.

    For one thing, being thus sensitive will keep Wall Street from being spooked.

    When the quarantines are implemented, people feel safer, and the stock market isn't therefore likely to plummet.

    But just let one poor enclave epidemic take hold, and then people will stop going to work in the area, and people will stop going to work if they know a coworker lives in the infected area .. and the downward spiral will be catastrophic.

    We simply can't allow any risk of such a situation to occur.

    Quarantines go a long way to preventing that, not only for the very health and lives of our people, but for our economic survival as well.


    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    But that's entirely different than believing they're necessary based on the science, because the science and evidence to date indicates such measures are overkill, with significant costs not offset with any measurable benefits beyond appeasing the fearful.
    What science?

    The science you quote, or the science I quote?

    The science the CDC and Obama quote, or the science that WHO presents?

    Clearly there are exceptions to whatever policy rule is being stated.

    For example, WHO personnel are now saying that a 21-day quarantine covers only 95 percent of cases, that an additional 21 days of quarantine is necessary to catch them all.

    Also, WHO personnel are now saying that some contaminations in West Africa can only be explained by the virus traveling beyond direct-contact distance in droplets of moisture in the air. That's how the cameraman contracted the disease, they say, as he simply wasn't that close in proximity to anyone infected.

    Scientific tests have concluded that the virus can remain on objects for a few hours in the cold and in a form whereby they can be picked up and function as a contaminate.

    Scientific tests have also concluded that if it's cold enough .. and winter is approaching .. the virus can remain on objects for more than a week.

    Etc.

    The American people read all of this .. presented from scientists .. and, also, they read all of this presented by political factions, whereby trust is compromised by agenda on both sides of the aisle.
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    Re: UTA grad isolated at New Jersey hospital as part of Ebola quarantine

    Quote Originally Posted by d0gbreath View Post
    She'll survive, but I doubt that she will go back to Africa and help again after three weeks of being pent up.
    Probably true. I appreciate what she did in Africa but I don't appreciate her whining.

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