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Thread: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

  1. #271
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Ok, like I just said to Sly...I should have included survey numbers in my statement...But that doesn't make the jist of what I was saying wrong..
    Yes it does. There's no "gist" to a flat claim that the UE rate is based on benefit claims. It's just wrong...they play no part at all.

    Hell, are you really saying that UE is really less than 7% right now?
    Well of course it is....unless you completely change the standard definitions.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    I may have been wrong, or at least un inclusive in my statement about U-3, when it should have included survey numbers as well, but in general, the numbers reported are manipulated, and have been for a long time through republican, and democrat administrations. I stand by that.
    Where is your evidence that they are manipulated? See, this is my complaint about people talking without being able to back it up. You have a belief the numbers are manipulated, but you have no evidence or actual reason for that belief. You don't even understand how the numbers are collected and compiled, so how could you possibly claim they are manipulated?


    And you still can't admit you were wrong. you "may have been wrong?" No, there's no "may" about it. And "un-inclusive?" No, unemployment insurance claims play zero role in the national unemployment numbers. They're not used at all in any way.

    So why did you say they were? Why would you make a false claim like that?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  3. #273
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    I may have been wrong
    You were.
    or at least un inclusive in my statement about U-3
    Not what you and I were discussing. We were discussing about how ptif made a false statement to support a position which was inaccurate. When you accused pinqy of not sourcing his claims, I pointed out the difference between pinqy and many others is how pinqy almost always uses BLS numbers and when he asks for the sources of others, it is because they are making inaccurate claims.

    I proved, as an example, ptif made a false statement. You claimed I didn't, which is what you were wrong about.

    but in general, the numbers reported are manipulated
    Do you have any real evidence to support your position, aside from "because I want to think so"?

    See, there's that arrogance I spoke of
    We've already covered this. When people make absurd statements, they don't deserve any better than I give them. Perhaps it is arrogance, I don't dispute that, but it's more just a lack of caring when dealing with people who are too damn stubborn to see why what they are saying is wrong.

    In other words, YOUR arrogance (meaning another's arrogance, not you specifically) triggers mine. The fact you admitted you were wrong when presented with the truth (though not about what you and I were discussing) immediately improves my desire to converse in a meaningful manner.

    That's not what I said and you know it
    No, it's not what you said, but it is what you said. You called me a progressive for no reason better than because I refuse to go along with your (or another conservative's) provably false statement regarding the percentage of discouraged workers. Because I insisted on actual facts, rather than the made up crap which makes you feel better in your political lean, you called me a progressive.

    So, like I said, it is what you said.

    What never occurs to you is how you come off to people
    Oh no, I know exactly how I come off. I already told you in that ridiculous thread you created about abortion to age 5 that I know I rub people the wrong way.

    What has not appeared to have occurred to you is that I honestly do not give a rat's ass if someone who insists on being wrong, even when being presented with the truth, thinks poorly of me. I have many cares and concerns in this world, but whether or not someone who needs to hide their head in the sand in order to continue believing what they want to believe likes me is simply not one of them.

    I can tell you, based on what I've read of your postings, you're probably not someone I'd enjoy being around
    Yes, probably not. You don't seem to like when people point out how often you are wrong and/or being silly.

    Being a progressive makes you a progressive, and you display all of the earmarks of the usual
    I suspect you cannot point to a single thing I actually believe which is "progressive".

    No, really, go ahead. Point to something I believe which makes me "progressive".

    But, continue with the facade if it makes you happy....
    There's no facade. When I claim to care only about results, and not what method is used to achieve them, it's the truth. When I say I don't care which party makes America better, only that it improves, it's the truth.

    You see, I'm not like you. You want the country to fail when a "liberal/progressive/Democrat" is President, because you seem to be far more concerned about your team winning (or the other team losing) than you do about the good of the country. I believe in equality under the law. I believe in local control if possible, state powers where appropriate and federal powers where necessary. There's nothing progressive about that at all.

    At the end of the day, your only standard for me being a "progressive" is that I'm not nearly as far to the right as you are.
    Last edited by Slyfox696; 11-03-14 at 03:53 PM.

  4. #274
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Yes it does. There's no "gist" to a flat claim that the UE rate is based on benefit claims. It's just wrong...they play no part at all.
    Then tell me why I hear reports every month about benefit claims numbers up or down, and how that impacts the economy if "they play no part at all"....

    Well of course it is....unless you completely change the standard definitions.
    Sept. report was 5.9%....Everyone agrees that 5% is close to "full employment"... And you're saying that we are that close to full employment? Sorry dude, I call BS on that one...
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Then tell me why I hear reports every month about benefit claims numbers up or down, and how that impacts the economy if "they play no part at all"....
    Benefit claims reports come out every week, actually. But why would the fact that there are reports about benefits claims mean they're used to calculate the official unemployment numbers???

    Separate reports, by separate agencies....The Employment Situation is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the weekly UI benefits claims are from the Employment and Training Administration of the Dept of Labor. (yes BLS falls under Labor too, but only administratively...operations are completely separate.)


    Sept. report was 5.9%....Everyone agrees that 5% is close to "full employment"... And you're saying that we are that close to full employment? Sorry dude, I call BS on that one...
    5.9% is a long way off from 5%. There are also a lot of other factors that are important to look at too...such as discouraged and part time for economic reasons and real wages and average hours.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  6. #276
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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    You were.
    they {people} don't deserve any better than I give them.
    I know exactly how I come off...I know I rub people the wrong way.
    I honestly do not give a rat's ass
    And honestly (dinged or not) that just makes you a run of the mill jerk, nothing special.

    The fact you admitted you were wrong when presented with the truth (though not about what you and I were discussing) immediately improves my desire to converse in a meaningful manner.
    Not me...I don't have meaningful conversations with jerks because jerks aren't interested in such...Really they are only out there as someone to toy around with, but as far as anything "meaningful"? Like my dad always told me, 'Don't argue with fools, they only drag you down and waste your time....'
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Benefit claims reports come out every week, actually. But why would the fact that there are reports about benefits claims mean they're used to calculate the official unemployment numbers???

    Separate reports, by separate agencies....The Employment Situation is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the weekly UI benefits claims are from the Employment and Training Administration of the Dept of Labor. (yes BLS falls under Labor too, but only administratively...operations are completely separate.)


    5.9% is a long way off from 5%. There are also a lot of other factors that are important to look at too...such as discouraged and part time for economic reasons and real wages and average hours.
    OMG, you are frustrating...This is silly....All you're going to continue to do is make your statements with no links to back up your thoughts, but dismiss every thought I have and demand that I give links....I don't really care anymore...If you want to say I lost, I was wrong, I was this, I was that...Fine, go ahead, you won the internet! WooHoo! Get bent.

    I'm not a numbers guy anyway.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    And honestly (dinged or not) that just makes you a run of the mill jerk, nothing special.
    Only to those who show no desire for the truth if it interferes with their belief.

    Not me...I don't have meaningful conversations
    Because you might find out that what you believe is wrong.

    And someone pointing out that you were wrong doesn't make them a progressive, it just means you were wrong.

    with jerks because jerks aren't interested in such
    Says the person who claims data is manipulated without anything more than "because I believe so" to support it.

    By the way...where is your evidence I'm a progressive? Or is that just another "it's true because I want to believe it"?

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.
    The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
    And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
    Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.
    And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.
    “He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

    Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report | New York Post
    Uh huh....nothing to see here....Move along.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Uh huh....nothing to see here....Move along.
    Agreed.

    http://www.oig.doc.gov/OIGPublications/14-0073.pdf

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