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Thread: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, Pinqy.

    It used to be based on three simple common sense points: You have no job now; you are available for work now; and you have actively looked for work in the past four weeks.

    The method for calculating unemployment has changed in several ways. Simply losing your job doesn't mean you're unemployed today, although it sure as H*** feels like it when you don't have a paycheck coming in so you can pay your bills. However, if you stop actively looking for work, you are longer considered unemployed. I don't know what those discouraged people are called today, but they don't have a job, so they are unemployed by most people's definition.

    On the other hand, if you are working part-time at a low-paying job because that's all that is available, you are considered employed. You could have been an engineer but now you are working at WalMart sweeping floors, but that's how it's calculated, and it is an unfair double standard!

    Then you have what is called the "labor participation rate," which measures the total labor force available versus those actually working doing some kind of job, no matter how menial or part time. So if you have 10 unemployed, but five have just stopped looking for work because there are no jobs available, the unemployment rate will drop because those five are no longer considered unemployed. : It doesn't change the fact that they still don't have a job, but it makes the unemployment rate look better.

    That's the problem with the way it's currently calculated. If the unemployment rate falls due to people giving up looking, rather than job creation, it shows that the labor market is not expanding, but either shrinking or not expanding enough to accommodate new workers joining the labor force.

    Obama told us for years that he was focusing on job creation "like a laser," but so far only part time or low-paying jobs are available for the most part, and our standard of living is dropping for an awful lot of people. Companies need to make a profit or they either close or move to more business-friendly countries. When companies like GM build a new plant in Mexico instead of here, that pits Wall Street and the need to satisfy shareholders against the workers on Main Street USA who used to do those jobs- the workers lose every time! I have repeatedly suggested that thousands of new jobs could be created if we just upgraded our grid which is badly needed, as an example, and that would be a double good...people go back to work and we bring our grid into the 21st century where we all live now. Just my opinion.....

    Excellent work, Pol ... but you know it won't bring an end to this, don't you?

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Why do you think it's meant to lie? It's meant to give an accurate picture of the labor market conditions. The subcategories of Not in the Labor Force give a clearer picture of who is likely to start looking for work.
    I think it is meant to lie, because if the true numbers were out there people would revolt.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, Pinqy.

    It used to be based on three simple common sense points: You have no job now; you are available for work now; and you have actively looked for work in the past four weeks.
    That's still the definition, although, as always, those on temporary layoff who expect to return to their old job do not have to have looked.

    The method for calculating unemployment has changed in several ways. Simply losing your job doesn't mean you're unemployed today, although it sure as H*** feels like it when you don't have a paycheck coming in so you can pay your bills. However, if you stop actively looking for work, you are longer considered unemployed. I don't know what those discouraged people are called today, but they don't have a job, so they are unemployed by most people's definition.
    Where is the change? And regardless of what most people's definition is, it's not a useful definition.

    On the other hand, if you are working part-time at a low-paying job because that's all that is available, you are considered employed. You could have been an engineer but now you are working at WalMart sweeping floors, but that's how it's calculated, and it is an unfair double standard!
    So you have two people working the same part time job for the same pay andyou want to call one of them employed and the other unemployed because one has a high school education and the other has a degree. That makes sense to you?

    How about someone who has a degree in theater and is working as a waitress while trying to break into Hollywood. Employed or unemployed? Or someone who was an engineer, but retired and now has a part time job as a Wal-Mart greeter to stay active and earn a little money. Employed or Unemployed?

    Simplistic doesn't work for a scientific approach trying to measure a lot of people with a sample.

    Then you have what is called the "labor participation rate," which measures the total labor force available versus those actually working doing some kind of job, no matter how menial or part time.
    No, that's not what the labor force participation rate is. The Labor Force is employed plus unemployed (everyone doing something about work) and the participation rate is the labor force as a percent of the adult civilian non-institutional population.

    So if you have 10 unemployed, but five have just stopped looking for work because there are no jobs available, the unemployment rate will drop because those five are no longer considered unemployed. : It doesn't change the fact that they still don't have a job, but it makes the unemployment rate look better.
    But we're not trying to measure who doesn't have a job....we're trying to measure who is trying to get a job. And what if the five stopped looking because they were sick, ill, pregnant, had to take care of a family member, or they decided they just wanted to smoke pot in their mom's basement? They still don't have a job, are they still unemployed?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    I think it is meant to lie, because if the true numbers were out there people would revolt.
    You realize that all the data is available...so the "true numbers" are out there.

    But I'm still puzzled by insistence on "the true numbers." What makes them that? What's the definition, and why?
    Last edited by pinqy; 10-31-14 at 12:03 PM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Here's what I don't get....Not working, available for work, currently looking for work, is the basic definition used in the U.S. since 1920 when the Census first started asking about unemployment, it's the standard of Eurostat, the International Labour Organization (of the U.N.) and every country in the world that collects unemployment data. there are variations, of course...some countries have a maximum age, some include military in the population, some don't, some include people hired but not working as unemployed regardless of job search, some have relaxed standards for looking (those more Socialist countries where the government finds a job for you).

    And yet...there are people who insist that that's not a "real" definition. I find it odd to declare every expert in the field wrong.

    j-Mac...it's like civilians calling the M-16A2 or the M-4 an automatic weapon or machine gun. To them, "automatic" and "semi-automatic" are the same thing.

    For J
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    No big thing Pol, I will just go back to ignoring the stats because they are not accurate, they are nothing more than one big lie. I just can't see what is so hard to understand if one is unemployed he is unemployed, period. If one has a job, he is working, period. Until the government starts looking at things that way, we will always have a problem as I suppose it is the governments way of making things look rosier than they really are.

    If I were an elected official I would want people to look at the glass as being half filled, not half empty. It helps my political career.
    Excellent post! Everyone knows someone who has lost their job through no fault of their own, and few feel things have gotten better - even though they are told by the media that they have! Besides, the original numbers are always revised, so most people don't pay attention to them anyway, since it looks like they don't want people to know the actual facts.

    Isn't there anyone in government these days who has actually worked in the business world and knows how that works? Hiring more people to work in the government in DC is a drain on the taxpayers - we pay their salaries for what? Making new rules and regulations which creates departments of people who don't produce anything except headaches for businesses trying to comply with same? No wonder they are leaving for friendlier countries, taking the jobs that used to be done here somewhere else!

    Someone somewhere around the world today is doing the job that a worker employed in the business world here used to do, damn it! And they're happy to have that job, too, so they aren't complaining and making problems for their employers, even though they aren't making a fraction of what our workers used to be paid! We just aren't competitive any more, sad to say - small wonder China has taken our number one position in GDP growth!

    I don't know what the answer is, because we can't live on a salary of $5.00 a day here. We'd better think of something, though, because if this continues, people won't even be able to afford eating at McDonalds!

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Excellent post! Everyone knows someone who has lost their job through no fault of their own, and few feel things have gotten better - even though they are told by the media that they have! Besides, the original numbers are always revised, so most people don't pay attention to them anyway, since it looks like they don't want people to know the actual facts.

    Isn't there anyone in government these days who has actually worked in the business world and knows how that works? Hiring more people to work in the government in DC is a drain on the taxpayers - we pay their salaries for what? Making new rules and regulations which creates departments of people who don't produce anything except headaches for businesses trying to comply with same? No wonder they are leaving for friendlier countries, taking the jobs that used to be done here somewhere else!

    Someone somewhere around the world today is doing the job that a worker employed in the business world here used to do, damn it! And they're happy to have that job, too, so they aren't complaining and making problems for their employers, even though they aren't making a fraction of what our workers used to be paid! We just aren't competitive any more, sad to say - small wonder China has taken our number one position in GDP growth!

    I don't know what the answer is, because we can't live on a salary of $5.00 a day here. We'd better think of something, though, because if this continues, people won't even be able to afford eating at McDonalds!
    Excellent Pol, You have put my feelings into writing which portrays them as they should be. I don't have an answer either. We lost our industrial base due to an over abundance of regulations, mandates and taxes. And yes, those once good paying jobs are overseas making someone else happy. Do we as a country actually make anything anymore?
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Anyone with a bit of common sense knows the unemployed are the unemployed.
    Still trying to figure out your definition, so let's try:
    A 16 year old looking for a part time job.
    Someone fired for cause and hasn't tried to find a new job.
    Someone who quits and starts looking for a new job.
    Someone who got laid off and decided they didn't need a job and would stay home with the kids.
    A multi-million dollar lottery winner who stops looking for work.
    Someone who stops looking for work due to pregnancy.
    Someone who stops looking for work because he's just enrolled in a trade school.
    A retiree who decides to look for a part time job.

    Is it really as simple as you thought? Are your divisions clear, do they make sense, and do they give you the info you want?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Estimates? You call that reliable?

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    Re: AP-GfK Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    That's still the definition, although, as always, those on temporary layoff who expect to return to their old job do not have to have looked.

    Where is the change? And regardless of what most people's definition is, it's not a useful definition.

    So you have two people working the same part time job for the same pay andyou want to call one of them employed and the other unemployed because one has a high school education and the other has a degree. That makes sense to you?

    How about someone who has a degree in theater and is working as a waitress while trying to break into Hollywood. Employed or unemployed? Or someone who was an engineer, but retired and now has a part time job as a Wal-Mart greeter to stay active and earn a little money. Employed or Unemployed?

    Simplistic doesn't work for a scientific approach trying to measure a lot of people with a sample.


    No, that's not what the labor force participation rate is. The Labor Force is employed plus unemployed (everyone doing something about work) and the participation rate is the labor force as a percent of the adult civilian non-institutional population.

    But we're not trying to measure who doesn't have a job....we're trying to measure who is trying to get a job. And what if the five stopped looking because they were sick, ill, pregnant, had to take care of a family member, or they decided they just wanted to smoke pot in their mom's basement? They still don't have a job, are they still unemployed?
    Why are we trying to measure who is trying to get a job, versus those who don't? I don't understand that reasoning. Is the thinking that people are basically lazy, and need to be prodded into looking for a job? If that's the case, then someone who visits a company or two during the week and gets a confirmation that they were indeed there, is trying? Or someone who sends their resume to 25 companies is trying?

    The old rules always excluded the pregnant and the ill, which covered the "available for work" part. Your analogy of two workers both doing the same job on a part time basis wouldn't apply here, IMO, because under the new way of calculating things, both would be considered employed, so educational background wouldn't be a consideration. If you're working, even a few hours a week, you're considered employed.

    Some of the rules changed during the Clinton administration, probably because of NAFTA, so this isn't all new with Obama. I believe the "labor force participation rate" is newly defined by Obama, though. Ross Perot had it exactly correct when he made the statement - and I paraphrase - "the giant sucking sound we hear is the result of jobs leaving America" during his Presidential campaign. Job loss has certainly increased since then - no unemployed workers today would dispute that!

    Regarding your last paragraph: With the two exceptions I listed above, which were in the old rules, I believe that if you had a job and you no longer have a job, for whatever reason, then yes you are unemployed. There will always be those who will attempt to beat the system, so what else is new? It's human nature for some, I guess. You could show up for an interview for a job you don't want, dressed like a slob and smelling bad, but you've tried, right? Is that good enough to satisfy the new rules?

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